Investigation of the impact of changes in demand forecasting method on the financial performance of an electricity supply undertaking

Peak demand forecasts obtained from six different univariate forecasting methods, under a range of conditions, were used to drive a capacity acquisition model of a large electrical supply system; and the resulting physical and financial performance of the model was observed for each set of forecasts. The results obtained are discussed in the context of their implications for the choice of load forecasting method used in capacity acquisition planning by a power supply undertaking.     

Inhaled induction and emergence from desflurane anesthesia in the ambulatory surgical patient: the effect of premedication

We studied the effect of premedication (1 microgram/kg fentanyl and 0.04 mg/kg midazolam 5 min before induction of anesthesia) on airway reactivity and hemodynamic stability during inhaled induction using desflurane in 10 ambulatory surgical patients. Eight patients who were anesthetized without premedication served as the controls. Induction and emergence were rapid and unaffected by premedication. End-tidal and inspired concentrations of desflurane at loss of consciousness were significantly reduced by premedication (10.1% end-tidal/14.1% inspired, no premedication, vs. 5.3% end-tidal/8.9% inspired, premedication). Airway irritability was markedly attenuated by premedication (100% no premedication versus 30% premedicated), as was apnea (37.5% no premedication versus 0% premedicated). We observed an increase in mean arterial blood pressure and heart rate after loss of consciousness (mean arterial pressure 103 vs 121 mm Hg, heart rate 73 vs 100 bpm) in the unpremedicated patients, whereas both groups demonstrated a decrease in mean arterial blood pressure with no change in heart rate when baseline values were compared to those at incision (103 vs 74 mm Hg, no premedication, 99 vs 81 mm Hg premedicated). Patient acceptability was satisfactory and unchanged by premedication. We recommend the use of such premedication when desflurane is used during the induction of anesthesia.     

Elderly men with cancer: social work interventions in prostate cancer

Prostate cancer requires the attention of social workers in health care for three reasons: the growing elderly population which will increase the number diagnosed, the recent introduction of new treatments and the lack of social acceptability for this condition. Interventions for prostate cancer are specific to the stage of the disease. These individual, family and group interventions are a model for social work services to elderly men with other forms of cancer. Social workers have opportunity to research quality of life and decision-making issues to enhance medical practise in prostate cancer.     

The MITRE E3 family of models structure and results

A family of energy/economic/environmental (E³) models is presented as a mechanism for analysing national policy issues. The family consists of discrete models which are designed to be run in an integrated manner. The outputs of certain models provide the inputs to the next. This structure allows the analyst to readily incorporate an understanding of regional factors such as local energy prices, concerns over air quality, water availability, or attitudes towards construction of new energy facilities, into national assessments of energy policies. This paper reviews the analytic framework within which energy policy issues are currently addressed. The initial family of E³ models is described with the emphasis on the data linkages and feedback which are provided when these models are run sequentially. The ongoing MITRE research programme with the E³ family of models is presented and plans and opportunities for future work are outlined.     

Polymorphism of silica

A study of the stability relations of pure silica phases is described. It is shown that although cristobalite can be produced from pure quartz by heating it is not possible to produce tridymite in this fashion; a flux or mineralizer is required for tridymite formation and even in this case cristobalite is produced before any tridymite is observed. Thus it is concluded that the stability relations for the silica minerals proposed by Fenner are incorrect and that tridymite is not a stable phase in the pure silica system. This revised version was published online in November 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Advanced intelligent networks: now a reality

This paper looks first at the background to the development of intelligent networking concepts and then tracks this development to the advanced intelligent networks (AINs) of today. The network architecture and basic nodal functions are explained, and a brief review given of the essential intelligent network building blocks, namely the IN (intelligent network) call model and the enhanced CCITT No.7 signalling system. Typical intelligent network services are examined and the tutorial finishes with a review of the latest IN standards     

The failure of an F/A-18 trailing edge flap hinge

During a flight over sea, the right-hand trailing-edge flap (TEF) from an RAAF F/A-18 separated. Although the flap was not recovered, the mode of failure suggested that the outboard hinge lug was first to fail. A fleet-wide inspection of the TEF outer hinge lugs disclosed two other cracked hinge lugs. Examination of these cracks revealed that they had propagated as the result of a combination of corrosion and fatigue, in that the corrosive environment appeared to have accelerated the fatigue crack growth rate. Laboratory experiments indicated that, in a salt solution, the 7050 aluminium alloy from which the lugs were manufactured is susceptible to corrosion fatigue and that the observed cracking matched that on the cracked lugs: corrosion fatigue was therefore suspected to have been a contributing factor in the unexpected failure. Quantitative fractography on the fatigue cracks, combined with several assumptions and deductions, including information about the failure size of the crack gained from witness marks found on the monoball bearing of the failed TEF, led to an estimate of the fatigue crack growth rate. This crack growth rate and the short service life clearly indicated the limitations of the then-current non-destructive inspection (NDI) technique, and a more sensitive inspection method was developed to assist in the maintenance of adequate RAAF flying hours between inspections. This failure investigation provided an excellent example of how fractography, laboratory experiments and NDI can be combined to determine a possible cause of failure and to establish remedial measures for the fleet.     

Evolution of the serum amyloid A (SAA) protein superfamily

The serum amyloid A (SAA) superfamily comprises a number of genes and proteins characterized from a range of mammalian species. The majority of members described to date are dramatically induced during the acute-phase response, suggesting an important short-term beneficial role in the response to tissue injury and inflammation. However, important disease associations have also been proposed for certain SAAs during chronic inflammation. The nomenclature of many of the superfamily members has been the result of comparisons with previously reported sequences implying disease association and/or functional relatedness between such members. The evolutionary relationships of the SAA superfamily members have been investigated by comparisons at both the amino acid and the nucleotide level. The results indicate that all members of the superfamily within a species have been undergoing concerted evolution. This has important implications in ascribing functions and disease associations to individual SAA superfamily members and indicates that designations should not be based on the extent of amino acid identity alone but should be made only following direct experimental observation of the proteins themselves.     

Sheep pulmonary adenomatosis: a unique model of retrovirus-associated lung cancer

Sheep pulmonary adenomatosis (SPA) is a contagious bronchiolo-alveolar carcinoma of sheep associated with an exogenous type D/B retrovirus known as jaagsiekte sheep retrovirus (JSRV). SPA represents a unique model for lung cancer, and studies on its aetiopathogenesis can provide further insight into the mechanisms of epithelial neoplasms.