An Evolutionary Model of Endogenous Business Cycles

In this paper, we present an evolutionary model of industry dynamics yielding endogenous business cycles with ‘Keynesian’ features. The model describes an economy composed of firms and consumers/workers. Firms belong to two industries. The first one performs R&D and produces heterogeneous machine tools. Firms in the second industry invest in new machines and produce a homogenous consumption good. Consumers sell their labor and fully consume their income. In line with the empirical literature on investment patterns, we assume that the investment decisions by firms are lumpy and constrained by their financial structures. Moreover, drawing from behavioral theories of the firm, we assume boundedly rational expectation formation. Simulation results show that the model is able to deliver self-sustaining patterns of growth characterized by the presence of endogenous business cycles. The model can also replicate the most important stylized facts concerning micro- and macro-economic dynamics. Indeed, we find that investment is more volatile than GDP; consumption is less volatile than GDP; investment, consumption and change in stocks are procyclical and coincident variables; employment is procyclical; unemployment rate is anticyclical; firm size distributions are skewed but depart from log-normality; firm growth distributions are tent-shaped. JEL Classifications: C15, C22, C49, E17, E22, E32.     

Minority Games, Local Interactions, and Endogenous Networks

We study a local version of the Minority Game, where agents are placed on the nodes of a directed graph. Agents care about being in the minority of the group of agents they are currently linked to and employ myopic best-reply rules to choose their next-period state. We show that, in this benchmark case, the smaller the size of local networks, the larger long-run population-average payoffs. We then explore the collective behavior of the system when agents can: (i) assign weights to each link they hold and modify them over time in response to payoff signals; (ii) delete badly performing links (i.e., opponents) and replace them with randomly chosen ones. Simulations suggest that, when agents are allowed to weigh links but cannot delete/replace them, the system self-organizes into networked clusters that attain very high payoff values. These clustered configurations are not stable and can easily be disrupted, generating huge subsequent payoff drops. If, however, agents can (and are sufficiently willing to) discard badly performing connections, the system quickly converges to stable states where all agents get the highest payoff, independently of the size of the networks initially in place.JEL Classification:s C72, C73.     

Lymphocyte activation and cytokine production in autoimmune hemolytic anaemia (AIHA)

We studied 16 patients affected by autoimmune hemolytic anaemia (AIHA), both idiopathic and associated with other diseases (B and T lymphoma, B hepatitis, gastric carcinoma, systemic lupus erythematosus) or alpha-methyldopa therapy, in order to value T- and B-cell activation. We determined the count of T- and B-cell subsets in peripheral blood, the proliferative response of peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL) to phytohemagglutinin (PHA) and to pokeweed mitogen (PWM), the percentage of CD25+ cells in culture and interleukin (IL)-1alpha, IL-2, IL-4, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)alpha and soluble IL-2 receptor (sIL-2R) levels in sera and in culture. Except for an increase in CD4+ and CD8+ T cell number in a case of AIHA associated with a T lymphoma and an increase in the percentage of CD5+ and PCA1+ B cells in two cases of AIHA associated with B lymphoma and with SLE, no further data showed a relationship with the disease possibly associated with AIHA, so both idiopathic and secondary AIHA cases were analyzed together. CD4+ T cells were reduced in number in 9 cases, while CD8+ T cells were reduced in 6 cases. The percentage of CD5+ B cells was increased in 5 cases. The percentage of PCA1+ cells was increased in all cases (mean +/- sd: 18 +/- 22 vs 0,2 +/- 1 in controls). The average PBL proliferative response to PHA was reduced (S.I. 71 +/- 55 vs 138 +/- 45 in controls) as well as that to PWM (S.I. 27 +/- 21 vs 75 +/- 24 in controls), despite IL-2 high levels, in all cases, in both sera (mean +/- sd: 648 +/- 351 pg/ml vs 16 +/- 4 pg/ml in controls) and culture supernatants (mean +/- sd: 1045 +/- 677 pg/ml vs 195 +/- 51 pg/ml in controls). In PHA stimulated cultures the percentage of CD25+ cells was reduced (mean +/- sd: 37 +/- 18 vs 63 +/- 14 in controls), sIL-2R levels were like controls in 7 cases. In sera sIL-2R levels were increased in all cases (mean +/- sd: 1256 +/- 465 U/ml vs 256 +/- 114 U/ml in controls), IL-1alpha was increased in all cases too, while IL-4 levels were increased only in 7 cases. Linear regression analysis generally showed a low relationship between S.I. and IL-2, IL-4 and sIL-2R levels in supernatants of PHA stimulated culture as well as between S.I. and the percentage of CD25+ cells. Taken together these data suggest a state of B- and T-cell hyperactivation in AIHA. The low PBL proliferative response in vitro, explained in previous studies as a temporary functional exhaustion, might be itself a sign of the complete lymphocyte activation occurring in vivo in AIHA.     

Growth properties and growth factor responsiveness in skin fibroblasts from centenarians

Human fibroblast cultures, which have a finite replicative lifespan in vitro, are the most widely used model for the study of senescence at the cellular level. An inverse relationship between replicative capability and donor age has been reported in human fibroblast strains. We studied the growth capacity of fibroblast primary cultures derived from people whose lifespan was as closer as possible to the expected maximum human lifespan, i.e. people over one hundred. Our data suggest that outgrowth of fibroblasts from biopsies, growth kinetics at different population doubling levels, capability to respond to a classical mitogenic stimulus (such as 20% serum) and a variety of growth factors, were remarkably similar in fibroblasts from centenarians and young controls. On the whole, our data challenge the tenet of a simple and strict relationship between in vivo aging and in vitro proliferative capability of human fibroblasts, at least at the individual level.     

Blotting patterns of IgG anti-(U1)RNP antibodies in mixed connective tissue disease

Serum reactivities towards individual U1 snRNP proteins were determined by immunoblotting in 32 patients with mixed connective tissue disease (MCTD). Time persistence of immunoblot profiles and clinical significance of anti-(U1)RNP antibody specificities were also investigated. IgG anti-(U1)RNP antibodies were found in the sera of 29 out of 32 patients (90.6%): 21 (65.6%) reacted with the 70-kD protein, 25 (78.1%) with A, 23 (71.9%) with C and 20 (62.5%) with B/B' proteins. None were reactive with the Sm-D peptide. Seventy kilodalton antibody specificity was strongly associated with a higher antinuclear antibody titre (> 160) and slightly associated with disease activity; anti-B/B' specificity was associated with lymphadenopathy. Anti-A, -C and -B/B' antibodies were negatively associated with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) skin rashes. Two types of anti-(U1)RNP blotting patterns were selected: "full spectrum" (53.1% of cases) and a "partially/no reactive" one (46.9%). Such patterns were unchanged over time in 14 out of 16 cases prospectively examined (87.5%), while the pattern shifted from "full spectrum" to "partially/no reactive" in 2 cases (12.5%): in 1 after a prolonged clinical remission (> or = 4 years) and in the other following immunosuppressive therapy. The anti-(U1)RNP antibody immunoblot profile in MCTD patients consisted of various reactivities and remained unchanged over time in most cases. Antibody reactivity against the 70-kD protein represented the major U1 snRNP specificity. The various anti-(U1)RNP specific reactivities demonstrated poor clinical significance within MCTD. Thus, MCTD seems to be characterized by a longstanding serological heterogeneity whose reactivities do not apparently correspond to distinct features within the broad clinical spectrum of MCTD.     

Immunochemical study of incomplete platelet autoantibodies by the anti-globulin consumption test (AGCT) with specific anti-immunoglobulin sera

The indirect anti-globulin consumption test (AGCT) with specific immunoglobulin antisera (anti-IgG and anti-IgM) has been applied to the immunochemical characterization of incomplete platelet auto-antibodies in 33 patients with idiophatic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP), systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and autoimmune hemolytic anemia (AHA). In these cases indirect AGCT on platelets was positive with polyvalent gamma antiserum. The test with anti-IgG was positive in all cases except two, while always negative with anti-IgM, with no relation to the presence of complete platelet antibodies, the type of disease and the immunochemical type of erythrocyte autoantibodies in AHA patients. These results indicate that the incomplete platelets auto-antibodies were of the IgG class.     

Demand dynamics with socially evolving preferences

In this work we, first, identify a few stylized facts concerningmicroconsumption acts. Second, building on them, we developa simple model of 'boundedly rational' consumers who endogenouslyevolve their preferences via both innovation and social imitation.Third, we explore some statistical properties of the demandpatterns generated by the model which, despite its simplicity,are surprisingly in line with the empirical evidence. Theseresults, we suggest, bring encouraging support to microfoundationsof demand theory based on cognitive and behavioral foundationsmore in tune with the psychological and sociological evidence,based on heterogeneous agents who are much less 'rational' andmuch more social than in standard theory, and who collectivelydiscover 'along the way' what they like within a growing universeof available commodities.     

A Critical Guide to Empirical Validation of Agent-Based Models in Economics: Methodologies,Procedures, and Open Problems

This paper addresses the methodological problems of empirical validation in agent-based (AB) models in economics and how these are currently being tackled. We first identify a set of issues that are common to all modelers engaged in empirical validation. We then propose a novel taxonomy, which captures the relevant dimensions along which AB economics models differ. We argue that these dimensions affect the way in which empirical validation is carried out by AB modelers and we critically discuss the main alternative approaches to empirical validation being developed in AB economics. We conclude by focusing on a set of (as yet) unresolved issues for empirical validation that require future research.