The assessment of the damage probability of storage tanks in domino events triggered by fire

An approach aimed to the quantitative assessment of the risk caused by escalation scenarios triggered by fire was developed. Simplified models for the estimation of the vessel time to failure (ttf) with respect to the radiation intensity on the vessel shell were obtained using a multi-level approach to the analysis of vessel wall failure under different fire conditions. Each vessel “time to failure” calculated by this approach for the specific fire scenario of concern was compared to a reference time required for effective mitigation actions and related to the escalation probability. The failure probability of each vessel was correlated to the probability of scenarios involving multiple vessel failure as a consequence of the primary fire, thus allowing a comprehensive assessment of domino scenarios triggered by fire. The application of the methodology to the analysis of several case-studies allowed the estimation of the quantitative contribution of escalation events triggered by fire to the overall individual and societal risk indexes.     

The C-Terminal Domain of LRRK2 with the G2019S Substitution Increases Mutant A53T α-Synuclein Toxicity in Dopaminergic Neurons In Vivo

Alpha-synuclein (α-syn) and leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) play crucial roles in Parkinson’s disease (PD). They may functionally interact to induce the degeneration of dopaminergic (DA) neurons via mechanisms that are not yet fully understood. We previously showed that the C-terminal portion of LRRK2 (ΔLRRK2) with the G2019S mutation (ΔLRRK2^G2019S) was sufficient to induce neurodegeneration of DA neurons in vivo, suggesting that mutated LRRK2 induces neurotoxicity through mechanisms that are (i) independent of the N-terminal domains and (ii) “cell-autonomous”. Here, we explored whether ΔLRRK2^G2019S could modify α-syn toxicity through these two mechanisms. We used a co-transduction approach in rats with AAV vectors encoding ΔLRRK2^G2019S or its “dead” kinase form, ΔLRRK2^DK, and human α-syn with the A53T mutation (AAV-α-syn^A53T). Behavioral and histological evaluations were performed at 6- and 15-weeks post-injection. Results showed that neither form of ΔLRRK2 alone induced the degeneration of neurons at these post-injection time points. By contrast, injection of AAV-α-syn^A53T alone resulted in motor signs and degeneration of DA neurons. Co-injection of AAV-α-syn^A53T with AAV-ΔLRRK2^G2019S induced DA neuron degeneration that was significantly higher than that induced by AAV-α-syn^A53T alone or with AAV-ΔLRRK2^DK. Thus, mutated α-syn neurotoxicity can be enhanced by the C-terminal domain of LRRK2^G2019 alone^, through cell-autonomous mechanisms.     

Intimal hyperplasia following implantation of helical-centreline and straight-centreline stents in common carotid arteries in healthy pigs: influence of intraluminal flow?

Intimal hyperplasia (IH) is a leading cause of obstruction of vascular interventions, including arterial stents, bypass grafts and arteriovenous grafts and fistulae. Proposals to account for arterial stent-associated IH include wall damage, low wall shear stress (WSS), disturbed flow and, although not widely recognized, wall hypoxia. The common non-planarity of arterial geometry and flow, led us to develop a bare-metal, nitinol, self-expanding stent with three-dimensional helical-centreline geometry. This was deployed in one common carotid artery of healthy pigs, with a straight-centreline, but otherwise identical (conventional) stent deployed contralaterally. Both stent types deformed the arteries, but the helical-centreline device additionally deformed them helically and caused swirling of intraluminal flow. At sacrifice, one month post stent deployment, histology revealed significantly less IH in the helical-centreline than straight-centreline stented vessels. Medial cross-sectional area was not significantly different in helical-centreline than straight-centreline stented vessels. By contrast, luminal cross-sectional area was significantly larger in helical-centreline than straight-centreline stented vessels. Mechanisms considered to account for those results include enhanced intraluminal WSS and enhanced intraluminal blood–vessel wall mass transport, including of oxygen, in the helical-centreline stented vessels. Consistent with the latter proposal, adventitial microvessel density was lower in the helical-centreline stented than straight-centreline stented vessels.     

The assessment of risk caused by domino effect in quantitative area risk analysis

A systematic procedure for the quantitative assessment of the risk caused by domino effect was developed. Escalation vectors, defined as the physical effects responsible of possible accident propagation, were identified for the primary scenarios usually considered in the QRA procedure. Starting from the assessment of the escalation vectors, the methodology allows the identification of credible domino scenarios and the estimation of their expected severity. A simplified technique was introduced for consequence and vulnerability assessment of domino scenarios. The overall contribution of domino effect to individual risk, societal risk and to the potential life loss index was calculated by a specific procedure, taking into account all the credible combinations of secondary events that may be triggered by each primary scenario. The development of a software package allowed the application of the procedure to several case-studies. The results evidenced the relevant modifications of the risk indexes caused by domino effect and the importance of including the quantitative analysis of domino effect in QRA, in order to correctly assess and control the risk caused by escalation scenarios.     

Escalation thresholds in the assessment of domino accidental events

Domino effect is responsible of several catastrophic accidents that took place in the chemical and process industry. Although the destructive potential of these accidental scenarios is widely recognized, scarce attention was paid to this subject in the scientific and technical literature. Thus, well-assessed procedures for the quantitative evaluation of risk caused by domino effect are still lacking. Moreover, a wide uncertainty is present with respect to escalation criteria, and even in the identification of the escalation sequences that should be taken into account in the analysis of domino scenarios, either in the framework of quantitative risk analysis or of land-use planning. The present study focused on the revision and on the improvement of criteria for escalation credibility, based on recent advances in the modelling of fire and explosion damage to process equipment due to different escalation vectors (heat radiation, overpressure and fragment projection). Revised threshold values were proposed, and specific escalation criteria were obtained for the primary scenarios more frequently considered in the risk assessment of industrial sites.     

A simplified model for the assessment of the impact probability of fragments

A model was developed for the assessment of fragment impact probability on a target vessel, following the collapse and fragmentation of a primary vessel due to internal pressure. The model provides the probability of impact of a fragment with defined shape, mass and initial velocity on a target of a known shape and at a given position with respect to the source point. The model is based on the ballistic analysis of the fragment trajectory and on the determination of impact probabilities by the analysis of initial direction of fragment flight. The model was validated using available literature data.     

Highly turbulent counterflow flames: A laboratory scale benchmark for practical systems

We propose a highly turbulent counterflow flame as a very useful benchmark of complexity intermediate between laminar flames and practical systems. By operating in a turbulent Reynolds number regime of relevance to practical systems such as gas turbines and internal combustion engines, it retains the interaction of turbulence and chemistry of such environments, but offers several advantages including: (a) the achievement of high Reynolds numbers without pilot flames, which is particularly advantageous from a modeling standpoint; (b) control of the transition from stable flames to local extinction/reignition conditions; (c) compactness of the domain by comparison with jet flames, with obvious advantages from both a diagnostic and, especially, a computational viewpoint; and (d) the reduction or, altogether, elimination of soot formation, thanks to the high strain rates and low residence times of such a system, and the establishment of conditions of large stoichiometric mixture fraction, as required for robust flame stabilization. We demonstrate the phenomenology of such highly strained turbulent flames under conditions spanning unpremixed, partially premixed and premixed regimes. The system lends itself to the validation of DNS and other computational models. It is also well-suited for the examination of practical fuel blends - a need that is becoming more and more pressing in view of the anticipated diversification of the future fossil fuel supply.     

Assessment of missile hazards: identification of reference fragmentation patterns

Industrial accidents involving fragment projection were investigated. The analysis of fracture mechanics fundamentals allowed the exploration of the relations between the fracture characteristics and the final event leading to equipment collapse. Reference fragmentation patterns were defined on the basis of the geometrical characteristics of the categories of process vessels that are more frequently involved in fragmentation accidents. Primary scenarios leading to fragment projection were correlated to specific fragmentation patterns. A database reporting a detailed analysis of more than 140 vessel fragmentation events provided the data needed to support and validate the approach. The available data also allowed the calculation of the expected probability of fragment projection following vessel fragmentation, and the probability of the alternative fragmentation patterns with respect to the different accidental scenarios, based on the observed frequencies over the available data set.     

Assessment of missile hazards: evaluation of the fragment number and drag factors

An approach was proposed for the assessment of the expected number and drag factor of fragments generated in the collapse of a vessel due to internal pressure. The analysis of a database reporting data on more than 140 vessel fragmentation events allowed the identification of a limited number of fragment reference shapes. The correlation of fragment reference shapes to the vessel credible fragmentation patterns allowed the assessment of the expected number and reference shape of fragments generated. Starting from the fragment reference shapes identified, simplified functions for drag factor calculation were developed, based on few geometrical parameters of the vessel undergoing the fragmentation event. The probabilistic models for the expected shape and number of fragments generated and the simplified drag factor functions developed may constitute an important input for the analysis of the possible fragment trajectories in the framework of missile hazard assessment.