Application of stochastic filtering for lifetime prediction

This paper introduces a stochastic filtering modeling approach for predicting the remaining lifetime of a component based on information on the stochastic degradation process and uncertain condition monitoring measurements. The model is illustrated by a case study, where the degradation is assumed to be a simplified fatigue crack growth process. The model accounts for uncertainties in both degradation process and condition measurements in a sound way. If completed with information on costs of monitoring, failure and replacement, such model could be used in optimizing both the condition monitoring intervals and, e.g. the replacement time for the component.     

Experiments with negative ions in3He superfluids

The interaction between negative ions and ³ He superfluids was studied by using a time-of-flight spectrometer having a 10^–3 relative resolution. The ions guided through a sample of rotating³He-A were found to be focused into the cores of the vortices present in this rotating superfluid. Two different types, with different core structures and presumably different numbers of circulation quanta associated with them, were found. The ion mobility along the vortex cores, _c , observed in the absence of external magnetic field, can be explained by the mobility anisotropy of the A phase, which indicates that the vortices are continuous, i.e., consist of the A phase even in the core. In finite magnetic fields, a qualitatively similar continuous vortex structure was found, a result compatible with the earlier nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) experiments, but also a new vortex type with an anomalously high _c was seen when the vortex sample was prepared adiabatically. The observed strong ion focusing indicates broken w-symmetry in the core textures. This is in contradiction with the earlier numerical calculations on the optimal continuous vortex texture. Experiments to observe trapping of ions into the vortex cores were performed both in A and B phases. No trapping could be detected. Mobility measurements in stationary liquid were extended down toT=0.3T _c . Comparison with the calculated transport coefficients yields _A (T)=1.32 _BCS (T) for the maximal A phase gap atP=29.3 bar, and _B (T)=1.12 _BCS (T) for the B phase gap at 4.8 bar. In the normal Fermi liquid a shallow minimum of ion mobility was detected aroundT2T _c =5 mK.     

Data Refinement of Remote Procedures

Recently the action systems formalism for parallel and distributed systems has been extended with the procedure mechanism. This gives us a very general framework for describing different communication paradigms for action systems, e.g. remote procedure calls. Action systems come with a design methodology based on the refinement calculus. Data refinement is a powerful technique for refining action systems. In this paper we will develop a theory and proof rules for the refinement of action systems that communicate via remote procedures based on the data refinement approach. The proof rules we develop are compositional so that modular refinement of action systems is supported. As an example we will especially study the atomicity refinement of actions. This is an important refinement strategy, as it potentially increases the degree of parallelism in an action system. Received February 1999 / Accepted in revised form July 2000     

The Strategic Incrementalism of Lahti Master Planning: Three Lessons

ABSTRACT

The city of Lahti, Finland, has developed a unique policy of combining city strategy work with strategic master planning in an iterative process. It thereby offers insights to research on strategic spatial planning, exemplifying how institutional frameworks of statutory planning can be utilized as resources in strategic planning. Three lessons from the Lahti case are drawn: (1) utilize the moments of opportunity in the institutional environment of statutory planning, (2) shift the focus from the level of ‘strategic plans’ to the policy level of strategy work, (3) develop strategic planning as a platform for diverse ‘languages’.     

Molecular Weight Characterization and Gelling Properties of Acid-Modified Maize Starches

The reduction in the molecular weight distribution during acid hydrolysis of ordinary and waxy maize starch occured in two stages: first amylopectin degraded to intermediate high molecular weight polysac-charides, secondly, these were further hydrolyzed. The amylose moiety of ordinary and high-amylose starch was not affected very much by the hydrolysis conditions used (0.1–1 M HCI, 40°C, 0.3–4 h), but the gelling properties of starch weakened. The amylopectin degradation products, probably branched dextrins, were shown to hinder the gel formation of amylose in the starch pastes.     

Issues related to the computer realization of a multidisciplinary and multiobjective optimization system

Issues and novel ideas to be considered when developing computer realizations of complex multidisciplinary and multiobjective optimization systems are introduced. The aim is to discuss computer realizations that make possible both computationally efficient multidisciplinary analysis and multiobjective optimization of real world problems. We introduce software tools that make typically very time-consuming simulation processes more effective and, thus, enable even interactive multiobjective optimization with a real decision maker. In this paper, we first define a multidisciplinary and multiobjective optimization system and after that present an implementation overview of such problems including basic components participating in the solution process. Furthermore, interfaces and data flows between the components are described. A couple of important features related to the implementation are discussed in detail, for example, the usage of automatic differentiation. Finally, the ideas presented are illustrated with an industrial multiobjective optimization problem, when we describe numerical experiments related to quality properties in paper making.     

Neural networks and genetic algorithms for bankruptcy predictions

We are focusing on three alternative techniques-linear discriminant analysis, logit analysis and genetic algorithms-that can be used to empirically select predictors for neural networks in failure prediction. The selected techniques all have different assumptions about the relationships between the independent variables. Linear discriminant analysis is based on linear combination of independent variables, logit analysis uses the logistical cumulative function and genetic algorithms is a global search procedure based on the mechanics of natural selection and natural genetics. In an empirical test all three selection methods chose different bankruptcy prediction variables. The best prediction results were achieved when using genetic algorithms.     

Mutation analysis for prenatal diagnosis of hereditary tyrosinaemia type 1

Presentation of 11 cases of retroperitoneal sarcoma. Mean time from the beginning of symptoms to diagnosis is 6 months. The primary complementary study is CT. Surgery was performed in all cases, using complete resection in 6 cases, and partial resection in 5. Ten patients relapsed. 9 of which were treated with surgical rescue, in one or more occasions; chemotherapy was added in 6 cases and radiotherapy in 7. Survival at five years is 68%, with a mean follow-up of 66 months.     

Bayesian models and ageing indicators for analysing random changes in failure occurrence

The paper introduces ageing models of repairable components based on Bayesian approach. Models for the development of both failure rate and the probability of failure on demand are presented. The models are based on the assumption that the failure probability or rate has random changes at certain time points. This is modelled by assuming that the successive transformed failure probabilities (or rates) follow a Gaussian random walk. The model is compared with a constant increment model, in which the possible ageing trend is monotone. Monte-Carlo Markov Chain sampling is applied in the determination of the posterior distributions. Ageing indicators based on the model parameters are introduced, and the application of these models is illustrated with case studies.     

Expected user experience of mobile augmented reality services: a user study in the context of shopping centres

The technical enablers for mobile augmented reality (MAR) are becoming robust enough to allow the development of MAR services that are truly valuable for consumers. Such services would provide a novel interface to the ubiquitous digital information in the physical world, hence serving in great variety of contexts and everyday human activities. To ensure the acceptance and success of future MAR services, their development should be based on knowledge about potential end users’ expectations and requirements. We conducted 16 semi-structured interview sessions with 28 participants in shopping centres, which can be considered as a fruitful context for MAR services. We aimed to elicit new knowledge about (1) the characteristics of the expected user experience and (2) central user requirements related to MAR in such a context. From a pragmatic viewpoint, the participants expected MAR services to catalyse their sense of efficiency, empower them with novel context-sensitive and proactive functionalities and raise their awareness of the information related to their surroundings with an intuitive interface. Emotionally, MAR services were expected to offer stimulating and pleasant experiences, such as playfulness, inspiration, liveliness, collectivity and surprise. The user experience categories and user requirements that were identified can serve as targets for the design of user experience of future MAR services.