COVID-19 hospitalization rates rise exponentially with age,inversely proportional to thymic T-cell production

Here, we report that COVID-19 hospitalization rates follow an exponential relationship with age, doubling for every 16 years of age or equivalently increasing by 4.5% per year of life (R² = 0.98). This mirrors the well-studied exponential decline of both thymus volume and T-cell production, which halve every 16 years. COVID-19 can therefore be added to the list of other diseases with this property, including those caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, MERS-CoV, West Nile virus, Streptococcus pneumoniae and certain cancers, such as chronic myeloid leukaemia and brain cancers. In addition, the incidence of severe disease and mortality due to COVID-19 are both higher in men, consistent with the degree to which thymic involution (and the decrease in T-cell production with age) is more severe in men compared to women. Since these properties are shared with some non-contagious diseases, we hypothesized that the age dependence does not come from social-mixing patterns, i.e. that the probability of hospitalization given infection rises exponentially, doubling every 16 years. A Bayesian analysis of daily hospitalizations, incorporating contact matrices, found that this relationship holds for every age group except for the under 20s. While older adults have fewer contacts than young adults, our analysis suggests that there is an approximate cancellation between the effects of fewer contacts for the elderly and higher infectiousness due to a higher probability of developing severe disease. Our model fitting suggests under 20s have 49–75% additional immune protection beyond that predicted by strong thymus function alone, consistent with increased juvenile cross-immunity from other viruses. We found no evidence for differences between age groups in susceptibility to infection or infectiousness to others (given disease state), i.e. the only important factor in the age dependence of hospitalization rates is the probability of hospitalization given infection. These findings suggest the existence of a T-cell exhaustion threshold, proportional to thymic output and that clonal expansion of peripheral T-cells does not affect disease risk. The strikingly simple inverse relationship between risk and thymic T-cell output adds to the evidence that thymic involution is an important factor in the decline of the immune system with age and may also be an important clue in understanding disease progression, not just for COVID-19 but other diseases as well.     

Moment arms and lengths of human upper limb muscles as functions of joint angles

Modeling of musculoskeletal structures requires accurate data on anatomical parameters such as muscle lengths (MLs), moment arms (MAs) and those describing the upper limb position. Using a geometrical model of planar arm movements with three degrees of freedom, we present, in an analytical form, the available information on the relationship between MAs and MLs and joint angles for thirteen human upper limb muscles. The degrees of freedom included are shoulder flexion/extension, elbow flexion/extension, and either wrist flexion/extension (the forearm in supination) or radial/ulnar deviation (the forearm in mid-pronation). Previously published MA/angle curves were approximated by polynomials. ML/angle curves were obtained by combining the constant values of MLs (defined by the distance between the origin and insertion points for a specific upper limb position) with a variable part obtained by multiplying the MA (joint radius) and the joint angle. The MAs of the prime wrist movers in radial/ulnar deviation were linear functions of the joint angle (R2 > or = 0.9954), while quadratic polynomials accurately described their MAs during wrist flexion/extensions. The relationship between MAs and the elbow angle was described by 2nd, 3rd or 5th-order polynomials (R2 > or = 0.9904), with a lesser quality of fit for the anconeus (R2 = 0.9349). In the full range of angular displacements, the length of wrist, elbow and shoulder muscles can change by 8.5, 55 and 200%, respectively.     

Diagnosis of systemic causes of uveitis; a matter of ophthalmologist and internist

OBJECTIVE: To assess how often the aetiology is established in patients with uveitis, what systemic disease are found and what is the contribution of the internist to the diagnostic process. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: University Hospital Leiden, the Netherlands. METHOD: From January 1987 to April 1992, 342 patients presented with uveitis. All patients underwent a standard ophthalmological examination. Referral to an internist and individualised laboratory screening followed in patients with recurrent, chronic, bilateral or panuveitis. Recorded were: ophthalmological data, results of laboratory screening, results of analysis by the internist, final diagnosis and presence of systemic disease. RESULTS: 149 (44%) patients were examined by the internist, 18 (5.2%) were seen by another specialist. In 169 (49%) patients a specific diagnosis was made. 74 (22%) had a systemic disease, 74 a primary ocular disease. In 28 (8%) a systemic disease was presumed (5% were HLA-B27 positive, 3% had abnormal laboratory results); 5 (1%) patients had endophthalmitis as a complication of a septic process. CONCLUSION: In approximately 1/3 of the patients with uveitis a systemic disease was found. Examination by the internist tailored to the individual patient is essential in the evaluation of uveitis patients.     

Project to develop school education services in Delhi, India

There are many ways in which quantitative decision models can be applied in project management. The introduction of a project evaluation review technique network model to the development of a school education service in the city of Delhi, India, is described. The reasons for choosing this method, its advantages and limitations are discussed. Examples of the information obtained from the model are presented and explained.     

Coupled-mode theory of overmoded cylindrical metal bragg-reflectors

A coupled-mode theory of overmoded, cylindrical metal Bragg-reflectors is presented. The first-order Bragg coupling constants are derived for TE → TE, TM → TM, TE → TM, and TM → TE mode conversions. Reflectivities and transverse modeQ-factors are computed for a Bragg-reflector resonator. The results illustrate important competition effects between nearly-degenerate-transverse-modes occurring within both the Bragg-reflectors and the resonator.     

Longitudinal bone mineral density changes in early rheumatoid arthritis

A prospective longitudinal study of patients with early RA was performed to examine the influence of disease duration, disease activity and physical activity on bone loss. Sixty-seven patients with non-steroid treated RA of less than 5 yr duration, including 16 patients with disease duration less than 6 months, had BMD measurements of the femoral neck and the lumbar spine over a 12-month period using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. The BMD changes were compared with values from 72 control patients and were also correlated with serial measurements of disease activity (measured by the Stoke Index) and disability [measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score], at 3-monthly intervals over the 12-month period. No significant differences in BMD changes were found between RA patients and controls overall. Patients with disease duration of less than 6 months had significantly greater loss of BMD at the femoral neck (-3.9%, S.E.M. 1.5) than the remainder of the cohort (-0.2%, S.E.M. 0.7) (P = 0.02) and controls (-0.8%, S.E.M. 0.6). Lumbar spine BMD changes correlated with the initial Stoke Index (Rs-0.373, P = 0.01) but not mean Stoke Indices. There was no correlation of BMD changes with age or HAQ scores. These findings suggest that significant bone loss occurs within the first few months of disease in patients with RA.     

Isoforms p69 and p100 of 2'',5''-oligoadenylate synthetase induced differentially by interferons in vivo and in vitro

There is no better place to test life-saving resuscitation interventions than in the prehospital setting. Patients rarely survive cardiac arrest if resuscitation techniques have failed before leaving the scene. Also, paramedics are usually very experienced in key initial resuscitative techniques, and they routinely operate under strict paramilitary protocol, resulting in better study compliance. In addition, the large study populations that are derived from emergency medical services (EMS) systems lead to faster study completion and statistically stronger data. Most important, by reinforcing standardized care, rigidly scrutinized trials improve patient care, regardless of the effect of the study intervention. The success of productive EMS research centers requires routine communication between hospital and EMS administrators and their medical directors, designation of mutually acceptable data collectors who guarantee confidentiality, reciprocal exchange of study data provided as educational seminars to the hospitals, commitments to support the budget requests of an EMS program and appropriate system modifications, inclusion of EMS personnel in study design from the very beginning, prospective education of the medical community and media before protocol implementation, an authoritative grassroots medical director, and a paramedic supervisor system.     

Stochastic model for a wavelike exothermal reaction in condensed heterogeneous systems

The labile protons of two 32-base-pair, four-arm models of immobile Holliday junctions have been studied by two-dimensional 1H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Overlap of resonances in the imino-imino region of two-dimensional nuclear Overhauser enhancement (NOE) spectra necessitates the use of a multi-pathway approach for obtaining sequence-specific assignments wherein all possible NOE connectivities to the labile protons are utilized, including those from the 2H of adenine, 5CH3 of thymine, and 5H of cytosine. Resonance assignments are obtained for all slowly exchanging imino and cytosine amino protons. Base-pairing up to and including the junction point is found in all four arms of both Holliday junctions. Several cross-arm NOE connectivities are identified and can be used to infer the geometry of the helical stacking domains. The two Holliday junctions studied, which differ only by the exchange of two base pairs at the branch point, appear to have opposite arm stacking geometries. These assignments form an important part of the critical background for detailed NMR analysis of Holliday junction structure and dynamics.