Tests of assumptions about the joint receipt of gambles in rank- and sign-dependent utility theory.

A rank- and sign-dependent utility theory is based on an operation of joint receipt of 2 independent gambles and 3 assumptions regarding the operation (R. D. Luce, 1992). The authors tested these 3 assumptions (i.e., segregation, duplex decomposition, and the additivity of certainty equivalents over joint receipt) using both judged and choice certainty equivalents (CEs). Median choice CEs provided support for both segregation and duplex decomposition but little support for additivity in gains or in losses, whereas median judged CEs also failed to support segregation. The latter failure appears to result from some Ss misunderstanding the instructions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Expert systems and behavioral decision research

This paper reviews a part of the literature on behavioral decision research (policy capturing, psychophysics of numerical judgments and cognitive illusions) and examines implication for knowledge elicitation in expert systems. The literature on policy capturing demonstrates that simple and compact numerical models of expert knowledge can be built, but that experts are poor in verbalizing the knowledge expressed in them. The psychophysical literature indicates that numerical encoding of expert knowledge may be difficult and biased, but that it has definitive advantages over qualitative elicitation schemes: Numerical encoding forces hard throught, encourages precision, and allows to access a substantial computational apparatus. The literature on cognitive illusions suggests that the expert knowledge one elicits may be an illusion. The review concludes by recommending to use numerical judgments and explicit models by experts where possible, and to decompose the elicitation task in order to avoid cognitive illusions.     

Costs and payoffs in perceptual research.

Argues that research that reaches conclusions about inaccessible perceptual processes or experience should validate them by exhibiting good reasons to believe that the observed behavior in some sense faithfully reports the inaccessible processes. In the mid-1950s, perceptual researchers widely adopted a validation by cupidity approach. Suitable reward schemes combine with the assumption of reward-maximizing behavior to permit fairly direct inferences of underlying processes. Seriously inappropriate behavior produces relatively little reduction in expected payoff. Costs and payoffs are rather feeble means of instructing Ss what to do or ensuring that they do it. Consequences of this fact are examined in 3 specific kinds of perceptual experiments. Implications for experimental design, interpreting experimental results, and decision theory are explored. (26 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

"Not in my back yard": Influence of motivational concerns on judgments about a risky technology.

Examined whether judgments about the risks and benefits of a potentially hazardous technology vary as a function of whether or not that technology occurs in "one's own back yard." 67 20–88 yr old residents of coastal or inland areas (Santa Monica [SM] and Ontario, California) judged the impacts of off-shore oil drilling at SM or Mobile, Alabama, on several risk- and benefit-related attributes. A multiattribute utility analysis revealed that the utility of offshore development correlated .70 with overall attitudes. The main factors that contributed to this attitude were the ratings of the risks and the weights attached to overall risk concerns. SM Ss perceived the risks to be greater when the development would occur in SM Bay than Mobile Bay; an opposite trend was found for Ontario Ss. SM Ss placed 79% of the weight on risk concerns when the drilling would be in their own vicinity but placed only 45% of the weight on such concerns when it would be in another area; the weights given by Ontario Ss were independent of location. All Ss perceived that SM development would produce less benefits. Regardless of the drilling location, SM Ss perceived the risks to be greater and the benefits to be smaller than did Ontario Ss. (18 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)