Pertussis in Massachusetts, 1981-1991: incidence, serologic diagnosis, and vaccine effectiveness

Massachusetts provides diphtheria-tetanus toxoid-pertussis (DTP) vaccine, and since 1980 has monitored pertussis with a statewide diagnostic service. The incidence of bacteriologically confirmed pertussis was 104.5 per 100,000 person-years in 1-month-old infants and declined progressively thereafter. Infants < 6 months old experienced disproportionate morbidity: 44% of bacteriologically confirmed pertussis, 64% of hospitalizations, and 71% of hospital days. Most children with pertussis had received < 3 DTP doses during childhood, whereas 87% of adolescents with pertussis had received > or = 4 doses. Serodiagnosis by single serum anti-pertussis toxin antibody ELISA increased the incidence of confirmed pertussis in persons 11-19 years old from 3.0 to 12.9 per 100,000 and in persons > or = 20 years old from 0.16 to 0.56 per 100,000. Bacteriologic methods underestimate pertussis incidence, but a single serum anti-pertussis toxin antibody ELISA is a practical method for population-based diagnosis in adolescents and adults.     

Randomized function evaluation on a ring

LetR be a unidirectional asynchronous ring ofn identical processors each with a single input bit. Letf be any cyclic nonconstant function ofn boolean variables. Moran and Warmuth (1986) prove that anydeterministic algorithm that evaluatesf onR has communication complexity (n logn) bits. They also construct a family of cyclic nonconstant boolean functions that can be evaluated inO(n logn) bits by a deterministic algorithm.This contrasts with the following new results:

Modelling and inference reveal nonlinear length-dependent suppression of somatic instability for small disease associated alleles in myotonic dystrophy type 1 and Huntington disease

More than 20 human genetic diseases are associated with inheriting an unstable expanded DNA simple sequence tandem repeat, for example, CTG (cytosine–thymine–guanine) repeats in myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1) and CAG (cytosine–adenine–guanine) repeats in Huntington disease (HD). These sequences mutate by changing the number of repeats not just between generations, but also during the lifetime of affected individuals. Levels of somatic instability contribute to disease onset and progression but as changes are tissue-specific, age- and repeat length-dependent, interpretation of the level of somatic instability in an individual is confounded by these considerations. Mathematical models, fitted to CTG repeat length distributions derived from blood DNA, from a large cohort of DM1-affected or at risk individuals, have recently been used to quantify inherited repeat lengths and mutation rates. Taking into account age, the estimated mutation rates are lower than predicted among individuals with small alleles (inherited repeat lengths less than 100 CTGs), suggesting that these rates may be suppressed at the lower end of the disease-causing range. In this study, we propose that a length-specific effect operates within this range and tested this hypothesis using a model comparison approach. To calibrate the extended model, we used data derived from blood DNA from DM1 individuals and, for the first time, buccal DNA from HD individuals. In a novel application of this extended model, we identified individuals whose effective repeat length, with regards to somatic instability, is less than their actual repeat length. A plausible explanation for this distinction is that the expanded repeat tract is compromised by interruptions or other unusual features. We quantified effective length for a large cohort of DM1 individuals and showed that effective length better predicts age of onset than inherited repeat length, thus improving the genotype–phenotype correlation. Under the extended model, we removed some of the bias in mutation rates making them less length-dependent. Consequently, rates adjusted in this way will be better suited as quantitative traits to investigate cis- or trans-acting modifiers of somatic mosaicism, disease onset and progression.     

Analysis of signals from vortex flowmeters

The vortex flowmeter is used to measure the flow of fluids especially where the requirements include wide rangeability and the use of flowmeters with no moving part. It is common knowledge that process conditions affect the operation of a vortex flowmeter, and a customary approach is to introduce flow conditioners so that the measurement output from a vortex flowmeter conforms to specified standards. Some recent studies have shown how to apply signal analysis to the signal from vortex flowmeters to enhance performance, but the signal which has been typically analysed is the pulse train. In this paper,we advocate a new approach which involves detailed analysis of the unconditioned signal from the sensor prior to conventional signal conditioning. The results obtained from this approach open opportunities for the development of alternative signal conditioners and transmitters which not only enhance the quality of the measurement output from a vortex flowmeter but also make it possible to use the flowmeter for monitoring the condition of the plant.     

Adaptive modelling for adaptive water quality management in the Great Barrier Reef region,Australia

The development and use of a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model, within an adaptive management process for the management of water quality in the Mackay Whitsunday region of Queensland, Australia is described. The management goal is firstly to set achievable targets for water quality entering the Great Barrier Reef lagoon from the Mackay Whitsunday natural resource management region and then secondly to define and implement a strategy to achieve these targets. The BBN serves as an adaptive framework that managers and scientists may use to articulate what they know about the managed system. It then provides a tool to guide where, when and what interventions (including research) are most likely to achieve management outcomes. Importantly the BBN provides a platform for collective learning.BBN estimates of total suspended sediment (TSS) loads and event mean concentrations (EMCs) were compared to observed data and results from current best practice models. The BBN estimates were reasonable relative to empirical observations. Example results from the BBN are thereafter used to illustrate the use of the model in estimating the likelihood of exceeding water quality targets with and without proposed actions to improve water quality. Example results are also used to illustrate what spatial or land use elements might contribute most to exceeding water quality targets. Finally key limitations of the tool are discussed and important learnings from the process are highlighted.     

The influence of experimental conditions on the wear of the metal surface during fretting of steel on polycarbonate

The effects of experimental conditions on the amount of wear of the metal surface during fretting of steel on polycarbonate in laboratory air have been studied within the following limits: amplitude 2–20 μm, frequency 10–120 Hz and normal load 130–830 g. The influence of water vapour on the wear has also been investigated.The polycarbonate induces fretting damage of the steel, with α-Fe₂O₃ particles being transferred from the steel to the polymer surface. After an incubation period during which wear does not take place a running in period occurs during which the rate of wear decreases with the number of cycles, followed by a steady state period, during which the rate of wear remains fairly constant. The length of the incubation period generally increases with decreasing amplitude of slip and with increasing frequency of vibration, while the amount of subsequent wear generally increases with increasing amplitude of slip, with decreasing frequency of vibration and with decreasing applied load within the range studied. It is found that water vapour content has the most significant effect on the amount of wear. In moist oxygen, moist argon and moist nitrogen (relative humidity about 85%) the amount of wear is greater than in laboratory air (relative humidity about 50%), while in dry gases virtually no wear of the metal is observed.     

Beyond dissociation logic: Evidence for controlled and automatic influences in artificial grammar learning.

Evidence for unconscious learning has typically been based on dissociations between direct and indirect tests of learning. Because of some inherent problems with dissociation logic, we applied the logic of opposition to 2 artificial grammar learning experiments. In Experiment 1, participants were exposed to 2 different sets of letter strings, generated from 2 different grammars, and later rated test strings for grammaticality with either in-concert (rate grammatical strings consistent with either structure) or opposition (rate grammatical only strings from 1 of the structures) instructions. Manipulating response deadline affected controlled, but not automatic influences. In Experiment 2, after similar training, a source-monitoring test was administered from which the in-concert and opposition conditions were derived. The test indicated that varying the retention interval affected controlled, but not automatic, influences. The results are discussed in terms of awareness, knowledge representation, and metacognitive processing. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Regulation of memory accuracy with multiple answers: The plurality option.

We report two experiments that investigated the regulation of memory accuracy with a new regulatory mechanism: the plurality option. This mechanism is closely related to the grain-size option but involves control over the number of alternatives contained in an answer rather than the quantitative boundaries of a single answer. Participants were presented with a slideshow depicting a robbery (Experiment 1) or a murder (Experiment 2), and their memory was tested with five-alternative multiple-choice questions. For each question, participants were asked to generate two answers: a single answer consisting of one alternative and a plural answer consisting of the single answer and two other alternatives. Each answer was rated for confidence (Experiment 1) or for the likelihood of being correct (Experiment 2), and one of the answers was selected for reporting. Results showed that participants used the plurality option to regulate accuracy, selecting single answers when their accuracy and confidence were high, but opting for plural answers when they were low. Although accuracy was higher for selected plural than for selected single answers, the opposite pattern was evident for confidence or likelihood ratings. This dissociation between confidence and accuracy for selected answers was the result of marked overconfidence in single answers coupled with underconfidence in plural answers. We hypothesize that these results can be attributed to overly dichotomous metacognitive beliefs about personal knowledge states that cause subjective confidence to be extreme. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)