Forecasting trends of development of psychology from a bibliometric perspective

Bibliometric data on psychology publications from 1977 through 2008 are modeled and forecasted for the 10 years following 2008. Data refer to the raw frequencies of the PsycINFO (94% English-language, mainly Anglo-American publications) and the English-language documents of PSYNDEX (publications from the German-speaking countries). The series were modelled by way of exponential smoothing. In contrast to Single Moving Average methods which do not weigh observations, exponential smoothing assigns differential weights to observations. Weights reflect the distance from the most recent data point. Results suggest strongly expanding publication activities which can be represented by exponential functions. In addition, forecasted publication activities, estimated based on psychology publication frequencies in the past, show positive bibliometric trends in the Anglo-American research community. These trends go in parallel the bibliometric trends for the English-language publications of German-speaking authors. However, while positive trends were forecasted for all psychological subdisciplines of the Anglo-American publication database PsycINFO, negative bibliometric trends were estimated for English-language publications from German-speaking authors in 6 out of 20 subdisciplines.     

Acceleration of citing behavior after the millennium? Exemplary bibliometric reference analyses for psychology journals

With reference to social constructivist approaches on citing behavior in the sciences, the hypothesis of acceleration of citing behavior after the millennium was empirically tested for a stratified random sample of exemplary psychology journal articles. The sample consists of 45 English and 45 German articles published in the years 1985 versus 1995 versus 2005 in high impact journals on developmental psychology, psychological diagnosis and assessment, and social psychology. Content analyses of the reference lists refer to the total number of references cited in the articles and the publication years of all references. In addition, the number of self-references, the number of pages, and the number of authors were determined for each article. Results show that there is no acceleration of citing behavior; rather, on the contrary, a significant trend is revealed for an increase in authors’ citing somewhat older references in the newer journal articles. Significant main effects point also at more citations of somewhat older references in the English (vs. German) journal articles as well as in articles on social psychology and psychological diagnosis (vs. on developmental psychology). Complementary analyses show that multiple authorships and the number of pages as well as the total number of references and the number of self-references increase significantly with time. However, percentage of self-references remains quite stable at about 10%. Some methodological and statistical traps in bibliometric testing the starting hypothesis are considered. Thus, the talk that has been circulating among psychology colleagues and students on the potential millennium effects on citing behavior in the sciences (which can, however, become a self-fulfilling prophecy) are not confirmed—at least for psychology journals.     

On the validity of citation counting in science evaluation: Content analyses of references and citations in psychological publications

In reference to the increasing significance of citation counting in evaluations of scientists and science institutes as well as in science historiography, it is analyzed empirically what is cited in which frequency and what types of citations in scientific texts are used. Content analyses refer to numbers of references, self-references, publication language of references cited, publication types of references cited, and type of citation within the texts. Validity of citation counting is empirically analyzed with reference to random samples of English and German journal articles as well as German textbooks, encyclopedias, and test-manuals from psychology. Results show that 25% of all citations are perfunctory, more than 50% of references are journal articles and up to 40% are books and book-chapters, 10% are self-references. Differences between publications from various psychological sub-disciplines, publication languages, and types of publication are weak. Thus, validity of evaluative citation counting is limited because at least one quarter refers to perfunctory citations exhibiting a very low information utility level and by the fact that existing citation-databases refer to journal articles only.     

Differential effects of teacher comments.

An analysis of the effects of 3 kinds of teacher comment (social-comparison, subject-matter, and intraindividually oriented) accompanying grades in mathematics is presented. 385 6–10th graders were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 groups, each receiving 1 of the 3 types of comment, or to a control group. During the 1st half of the school year, teachers wrote comments concerning students" performance on mathematics examinations; during the 2nd half, comments were not made so as to test the duration of effects resulting from the earlier comments. Students were observed at the beginning of the experiment, at the end of the treatment period, after the no-comment phase, and every time they received a grade in mathematics. Dependent variables (besides later performance in mathematics) were cognitive-motivational variables and some school-related personality characteristics, which were selected with reference to a differentiated expectancy-value theory of achievement motivation. In analyses of variance, an interaction between type of comment and the student"s prior performance level was revealed for almost all dependent variables. Effects of comments persisted after the experimental period for school-related personality variables only. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Der neue Flughafen in Bankok – eine ingenieurtechnische Herausforderung

The new airport in Bangkok – an engineering challenge. The New Bangkok International Airport is currently one of the biggest building sites in the world. Planning and execution of this project required extreme accuracy and a very intense cooperation over the whole duration of the project between all firms involved. This article starts by giving an overview of the whole project and then focuses on the exemplary cooperation between planers and executing firms. Paying particular attention to the concourse structures that are longer than 3.100 m.     

How does scientific success relate to individual and organizational characteristics? A scientometric study of psychology researchers in the German-speaking countries

Purpose: To provide up-to-date bibliometric reference data describing the output and success of psychology researchers in the German-speaking countries, including lifetime publication and citation numbers, and to investigate associations of bibliometric measures with academic status and gender as well as the department characteristics of size and quota of senior researchers. Method Queried literature databases using an extensive online register of academic psychologists in the German-speaking countries, obtaining valid data for 85 % (N = 1742) of the population of interest. Findings Skewed distributions for publications and citations; maximum number of German-language (=native) publications much higher than maximum number of English-language publications; relatively large part of population publishing almost exclusively in German; publication count predictable by academic status, gender, department size, and quota of senior researchers; citation count predictable by publication count, status, department size, and quota of senior researchers; department characteristics interact with individual characteristics to produce specific conditions under which publication count and citation count are higher or lower than expected: combination of female gender, small department size and large quota of senior researchers is associated with particularly increased publication count; female gender and large department size are associated with decreased publication count; high publication count, large department size and low quota of senior researchers are associated with increased citation count; low publication count and large quota of senior researchers are associated with decreased citation count. Conclusions Reference values for scientific output provided in this study provide an anchor for monitoring and international comparison; despite considerable noise in data, we show that interactions of individual and organizational characteristics are relevant for scientific success and should be investigated further, e.g. by adopting various measures of organizational diversity and tracing a population longitudinally.     

On the pitfalls of bibliographic database searching: comparing successful and less successful users

This article investigates individual factors that determine success and failure in bibliographic database searching. In line with previous research, we hypothesised that the low usability of advanced bibliographic database interfaces (e.g. OvidSP?) would hinder students in implementing their information-seeking knowledge. Furthermore, we assumed high conscientiousness and need for cognitive closure to drive students towards rigidly using such advanced interfaces, even if they overtax them. In a study with 116 psychology undergraduates, 3 types of searchers were identified by means of a cluster analysis: successful database users, unsuccessful database users, and no-database users (e.g. Google Scholar? searchers). Multiple regression revealed the relationship between information-seeking knowledge and search success to be positive for no-database users and negative for unsuccessful database users: unsuccessful database users do not only have trouble putting their information-seeking knowledge into practice; high information-seeking knowledge even impairs their search success, presumably because it makes them use advanced functions that they are not yet able to master. T-tests revealed that unsuccessful users differ from successful users in terms of higher conscientiousness and need for cognitive closure. In conclusion, our results highlight the importance of enhancing database interface usability and underline the crucial role of practical database instruction.