COVID-19 hospitalization rates rise exponentially with age,inversely proportional to thymic T-cell production

Here, we report that COVID-19 hospitalization rates follow an exponential relationship with age, doubling for every 16 years of age or equivalently increasing by 4.5% per year of life (R² = 0.98). This mirrors the well-studied exponential decline of both thymus volume and T-cell production, which halve every 16 years. COVID-19 can therefore be added to the list of other diseases with this property, including those caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, MERS-CoV, West Nile virus, Streptococcus pneumoniae and certain cancers, such as chronic myeloid leukaemia and brain cancers. In addition, the incidence of severe disease and mortality due to COVID-19 are both higher in men, consistent with the degree to which thymic involution (and the decrease in T-cell production with age) is more severe in men compared to women. Since these properties are shared with some non-contagious diseases, we hypothesized that the age dependence does not come from social-mixing patterns, i.e. that the probability of hospitalization given infection rises exponentially, doubling every 16 years. A Bayesian analysis of daily hospitalizations, incorporating contact matrices, found that this relationship holds for every age group except for the under 20s. While older adults have fewer contacts than young adults, our analysis suggests that there is an approximate cancellation between the effects of fewer contacts for the elderly and higher infectiousness due to a higher probability of developing severe disease. Our model fitting suggests under 20s have 49–75% additional immune protection beyond that predicted by strong thymus function alone, consistent with increased juvenile cross-immunity from other viruses. We found no evidence for differences between age groups in susceptibility to infection or infectiousness to others (given disease state), i.e. the only important factor in the age dependence of hospitalization rates is the probability of hospitalization given infection. These findings suggest the existence of a T-cell exhaustion threshold, proportional to thymic output and that clonal expansion of peripheral T-cells does not affect disease risk. The strikingly simple inverse relationship between risk and thymic T-cell output adds to the evidence that thymic involution is an important factor in the decline of the immune system with age and may also be an important clue in understanding disease progression, not just for COVID-19 but other diseases as well.     

Project to develop school education services in Delhi, India

There are many ways in which quantitative decision models can be applied in project management. The introduction of a project evaluation review technique network model to the development of a school education service in the city of Delhi, India, is described. The reasons for choosing this method, its advantages and limitations are discussed. Examples of the information obtained from the model are presented and explained.     

Coupled-mode theory of overmoded cylindrical metal bragg-reflectors

A coupled-mode theory of overmoded, cylindrical metal Bragg-reflectors is presented. The first-order Bragg coupling constants are derived for TE → TE, TM → TM, TE → TM, and TM → TE mode conversions. Reflectivities and transverse modeQ-factors are computed for a Bragg-reflector resonator. The results illustrate important competition effects between nearly-degenerate-transverse-modes occurring within both the Bragg-reflectors and the resonator.     

Longitudinal bone mineral density changes in early rheumatoid arthritis

A prospective longitudinal study of patients with early RA was performed to examine the influence of disease duration, disease activity and physical activity on bone loss. Sixty-seven patients with non-steroid treated RA of less than 5 yr duration, including 16 patients with disease duration less than 6 months, had BMD measurements of the femoral neck and the lumbar spine over a 12-month period using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. The BMD changes were compared with values from 72 control patients and were also correlated with serial measurements of disease activity (measured by the Stoke Index) and disability [measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score], at 3-monthly intervals over the 12-month period. No significant differences in BMD changes were found between RA patients and controls overall. Patients with disease duration of less than 6 months had significantly greater loss of BMD at the femoral neck (-3.9%, S.E.M. 1.5) than the remainder of the cohort (-0.2%, S.E.M. 0.7) (P = 0.02) and controls (-0.8%, S.E.M. 0.6). Lumbar spine BMD changes correlated with the initial Stoke Index (Rs-0.373, P = 0.01) but not mean Stoke Indices. There was no correlation of BMD changes with age or HAQ scores. These findings suggest that significant bone loss occurs within the first few months of disease in patients with RA.     

Analysis of the roles of antilipopolysaccharide and anti-cholera toxin immunoglobulin A (IgA) antibodies in protection against Vibrio cholerae and cholera toxin by use of monoclonal IgA antibodies in vivo

Secretory immunoglobulin A (IgA) antibodies (sIgA) directed against cholera toxin (CT) and surface components of Vibrio cholerae are associated with protection against cholera, but the relative importance of specific sIgAs in protection is unknown. A monoclonal IgA directed against the V. cholerae lipopolysaccharide (LPS), secreted into the intestines of neonatal mice bearing hybridoma tumors, was previously shown to provide protection against a lethal oral dose of 10(7) V. cholerae cells. We show here that a single oral dose of 5 to 50 micrograms of the monoclonal anti-LPS IgA, given within 2 h before V. cholerae challenge, protected neonatal mice against challenge. In contrast, an oral dose of 80 micrograms of monoclonal IgA directed against CT B subunit (CTB) failed to protect against V. cholerae challenge. A total of 80 micrograms of monoclonal anti-CTB IgA given orally protected neonatal mice from a lethal (5-micrograms) oral dose of CT. Secretion of the same anti-CTB IgA antibodies into the intestines of mice bearing IgA hybridoma backpack tumors, however, failed to protect against lethal oral doses of either CT (5 micrograms) or V. cholerae (10(7) cells). Furthermore, monoclonal anti-CTB IgA, either delivered orally or secreted onto mucosal surfaces in mice bearing hybridoma tumors, did not significantly enhance protection over that provided by oral anti-LPS IgA alone. These results demonstrate that anti-LPS sIgA is much more effective than anti-CT IgA in prevention of V. cholerae-induced diarrheal disease.     

Hypomagnesemia following correction of metabolic acidosis: a case of hungry bones

Severe symptomatic hypomagnesemia (0.15 mmol/L [0.3 mEq/L]) and hypocalcemia (1.47 mmol/L [5.9 mg/dL]) occurred in a 4-week-old infant coincidental with correction of a severe renal tubular acidosis with alkali therapy. The patient had no evidence of gastrointestinal abnormality and magnesium (Mg) intake was adequate for age and weight. Extreme renal conservation of Mg was observed, supporting the presence of Mg depletion. We suggest that Mg depletion in this infant occurred due to acidosis-induced bone demineralization and that symptomatic hypomagnesemia was precipitated by rapid remineralization accompanying correction of systemic acidosis. This patient represents a novel case of hungry bone syndrome (HBS). Since HBS has not been described previously in patients with acidosis undergoing therapy, several other factors may have contributed to this patient's severe hypomagnesemia, namely, prematurity, twin status, severity of acidosis, rapidity of correction of acidosis, catch-up growth and calcium supplementation. Clinicians should be vigilant for HBS in infants with severe acidosis undergoing alkali therapy.