Incorporating Economy and Long-term Inflow Forecasting Uncertainty into Decision-making for Agricultural Water Allocation during Droughts

Optimizing water allocations for the agricultural sector, the main water consumer, at the beginning of a period of drought is essential. However, long-term inflow forecasting, with its high uncertainty, is a necessary component of the allocation process. This paper presents a methodology that combines this uncertainty with economic factors to determine water allocation. The following models were developed and linked: optimization of agricultural water allocation under water scarcity, long-term flow forecast and quantification of forecast uncertainties. The approach coordinates economic values of water with system operational requirements. The Zayandeh Rud dam and irrigation system was selected to explore the methodology of this research.     

Drought Occurrence Probability Analysis Using Multivariate Standardized Drought Index and Copula Function Under Climate Change

This study aims to investigate the effect of climate change on the probability of drought occurrence in central Iran. To this end, a new drought index called Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) was developed, which is composed of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI). The required data included precipitation, temperature (from CRU TS), and soil moisture (from the ESA CCA SM product) on a monthly time scale for the 1980–2016 period. Moreover, future climate data were downloaded from CMIP6 models under the latest SSPs-RCPs emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) for the 2020–2056 period. Based on the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Cramer-von mises statistic (S_n), and Nash Sutcliffe (NS) evaluation criteria, the Galambos and Clayton functions were selected to derive copula-based joint distribution functions in both periods. The results showed that more severe and longer droughts will occur in the future compared to the historical period and in particular under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. From the derived joint return period, a drought event with defined severity or duration will happen in a shorter return period as compared with the historical period. In other words, the joint return period indicated a higher probability of drought occurrence in the future period. Moreover, the joint return period analysis revealed that the return period of mild droughts will remain the same, while it will decrease for extreme droughts in the future.

     

A Comprehensive Study of Well Trajectory Effect on Reservoir Performance

The interface of a reservoir with a well is a determining factor in inflow performance. Therefore, well trajectory is a key factor that determines how the well is in contact with the pay zone. This article presents the effect of well azimuth and deviation angle on inflow performance. The inflow performance of different well azimuths at different well deviation angles is generated. The results showed that wells drilled in the direction of the long side of a reservoir have the best inflow performance. To investigate the effect of deviation angle, a two-part scenario is defined: single-phase and two-phase fluid flow. The results showed that wells that have vertical contact with the reservoir have the best performance.     

Recognizing shopper demographics from behavioral responses in a virtual reality store

Virtual Reality - The use of virtual reality (VR) technology in the context of retail is a significant trend in current consumer research, as it offers market researchers a unique opportunity to...     

Water Management of Irrigation Dams Considering Climate Variation: Case Study of Zayandeh-rud Reservoir, Iran

Dependency of reservoir operation on the climate variation occurs especially in regions, where agricultural demand has a significant share of the total water demands. The variability between demands that are based on annual climate conditions may be larger than the uncertainty associated with other explanatory variables in long-term operation of an irrigation dam. This paper proposed a rule curves to the water managers of the Zayandeh-rud reservoir in Iran in long-lead reservoir operation. A regional optimal allocation of water among different crops and irrigation units is developed. The optimal allocation model is coupled with a reservoir operating model, which is developed based on the certain hedging that deals with the available water and the water demands mutually. This coupled model is able to activate restrictions on allocating water to agricultural demands considering variation of inflow to the reservoir, variation of demands and the economic value of allocating water among different crops and irrigation units. The resulted rule curve is presented with a number of tables for more details and accuracy and a simple curve, which is more useful for operational purpose.     

Effects of soil-foundation-structure interaction on seismic structural response via robust Monte Carlo simulation

Uncertainties involved in the characterization and seismic response of soil-foundation-structure systems along with the inherent randomness of the earthquake ground motion result in very complex (and often controversial) effects of soil-foundation-structure interaction (SFSI) on the seismic response of structures. Conventionally, SFSI effects have been considered beneficial (reducing the structural response), however, recent evidence from strong earthquakes has highlighted the possibility of detrimental effects or increase in the structural response due to SFSI. This paper investigates the effects of SFSI on seismic response of structures through a robust Monte Carlo simulation using a wide range of realistic SFS systems and earthquake input motions in time-history analyses. The results from a total of 1.36 million analyses are used to rigorously quantify the SFSI effects on structural distortion and total horizontal displacement of the structure, and to identify conditions (system properties and earthquake motion characteristics) under which SFSI increases the structural response.     

Radiobiological and Treatment-Related Aspects of Spatially Fractionated Radiotherapy

The continuously evolving field of radiotherapy aims to devise and implement techniques that allow for greater tumour control and better sparing of critical organs. Investigations into the complexity of tumour radiobiology confirmed the high heterogeneity of tumours as being responsible for the often poor treatment outcome. Hypoxic subvolumes, a subpopulation of cancer stem cells, as well as the inherent or acquired radioresistance define tumour aggressiveness and metastatic potential, which remain a therapeutic challenge. Non-conventional irradiation techniques, such as spatially fractionated radiotherapy, have been developed to tackle some of these challenges and to offer a high therapeutic index when treating radioresistant tumours. The goal of this article was to highlight the current knowledge on the molecular and radiobiological mechanisms behind spatially fractionated radiotherapy and to present the up-to-date preclinical and clinical evidence towards the therapeutic potential of this technique involving both photon and proton beams.     

Enhanced Acquisition and Tracking in All Digital Phase-Locked Loops

This paper presents a technique to substantially mitigate the tracking jitter of all digital phase-locked loops and, hence, enhance the overall performance of the loop. This has been achieved by a structure utilizing a notch f ilter in a cascade arrangement with the loop f ilter to suppress the undesired frequency components and preserve the DC value at the output of the loop f ilter, which represents the trial value of the carrier phase error. A rapid acquisition of the error and a bit error rate (BER) performance close to theoretical results have been achieved.     

Designing the focused and wide beam pattern in linear and planar phased‐MIMO radar considering the antennas' overlap

Phased‐array multiple‐input multiple‐output (MIMO) radar is a new method for collocated MIMO radar, benefiting from its advantages without losing the coherent processing gain considered the main feature of phased‐array radars. In this method, the whole array is divided into several overlapping subarrays; then a waveform is allocated to the antennas of each subarray, which are orthogonal to other subarray's waveforms. In order to obtain a desired beam pattern, appropriate weighting coefficients for each subarray should be designed. This study aimed to design the phased‐MIMO radar's weighting coefficient matrix in two modes: In the first mode, the aim is to design a beam pattern, which has the maximum value in direction of the desired targets. In the second mode, a desired beam pattern is defined, and the coefficients should calculated in such a way that the obtained pattern be as much as possible compatible with the desired patter. In the two modes, the design, at first, is accomplished for linear array and then is extended to the planar array. Moreover, the impact of subarrays' overlap and the power constraints is investigated. The proposed methods, in special cases, are applicable in MIMO and phased‐array radars, too.