Modeling heterogeneity in social interaction processes using multilevel survival analysis.

More than 15 years ago, survival or hazard regression analyses were introduced to psychology (W. Gardner & W. A. Griffin, 1989; W. A. Griffin & W. Gardner, 1989) as powerful methodological tools for studying real time social interaction processes among dyads. Almost no additional published applications have appeared, although such data are commonly collected and the applicable questions are central to many important theoretical perspectives. To revisit the basic methods, the authors use an example from emotion regulation theory in which the level of child antisocial behavior is hypothesized to be positively associated with the hazard rate of angry emotions and negatively associated with sad, fearful emotions in the face of parental negative behavior (scolding). The authors discuss the limitations of traditional approaches to the analysis of social interaction and demonstrate improvements in the ability to model individual differences now available in existing software. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Variables that initiate and maintain an early-onset trajectory for juvenile offending

A trajectory defined by three time-ordered events was offered as a useful adjunct to building a development theory about antisocial behaviors. A sequence was defined with significant linkages between antisocial childhood behavior and early arrest and between early arrest and chronic offending. The majority of chronic offenders traveled through all three events in the sequence. Each event in the sequence shared a common process of disrupted family process plus frequent family transitions and marked social disadvantage. The findings support the hypothesis that the process that leads to antisocial behaviors at grade four may also maintain the entire sequence. The level of disrupted process at initiation and a time-based measure of involvement with deviant peers predicted which individuals moved forward in the sequence and which did not. The findings are consistent with the idea that the majority of chronic offending juveniles follow a trajectory that can be explained by a single theory.     

Comment on "Social contagion, adolescent sexual behavior, and pregnancy: A nonlinear dynamic EMOSA model."

The epidemic model of the onset of social activities (EMOSA model) for adolescent sexuality by J. L. Rodgers, D. C. Rowe, and M. Buster (1998) is examined. Strengths of the model include the nonlinear dynamic specification that seems reasonably realistic and the potential when used as a theoretical tool to generate new hypotheses for further testing at the individual level. Limitations include the lack of a well-developed statistical framework, the inability to include a variety of predictors to capture both social contagion and individual differences in the same model, and the focus on aggregate-level data. The EMOSA model for sexuality can be reparameterized to a hazard rate or an event history model that eliminates these shortcomings. Growth curve analysis represents another analytic alternative for the EMOSA model that also does not have these limitations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Movie smoking exposure and smoking onset: A longitudinal study of mediation processes in a representative sample of U.S. adolescents.

The authors tested 2 mechanisms for the relation of movie smoking exposure with onset of cigarette smoking in adolescence. Longitudinal data with 8-month follow-up were obtained from a representative sample of 6,522 U.S. adolescents, ages 10-14 years. Structural modeling analysis based on initial nonsmokers, which controlled for 10 covariates associated with movie exposure, showed that viewing more smoking in movies was related to increases in positive expectancies about smoking and increases in affiliation with smoking peers, and these variables were both related to smoking onset. A direct effect of movie exposure on smoking onset was also noted. Mediation findings were replicated across cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses. Tests for gender differences indicated that girls showed larger effects of movie exposure for some variables. Implications for policy and prevention research are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Evaluating a prevention program for teenagers on sexual coercion: A differential effectiveness approach.

The authors evaluated a coeducational program for teenagers on preventing sexual coercion in dating situations. Students examined individual and social attitudes underlying coercive sexual behavior and learned communication skills aimed at preventing or dealing with unwanted sexual advances. Instruction was enhanced by video and an interactive video "virtual date." Outcomes were assessed using sexual attitude scales with a sample of 458 high school students. Student health education classes were randomly assigned to either a treatment or a control condition. Findings, based on a latent variable model of differential effectiveness, showed that students in the treatment group with initial coercive attitude scores at or above the mean benefited significantly more than students with the same range of scores in the control group. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Implications of the restricted range of family environments for estimates of heritability and nonshared environment in behavior–genetic adoption studies.

Group and individual-difference adoption designs lead to opposite conclusions concerning the importance of shared environemnt (SE) for the child outcomes of IQ and antisocial behavior. This paradox could be due to the range restriction (RR) of family environments (FE) that goes with adoption studies. Measures of FE from 2 of the most recent adoption studies indicate that RR is substantial, about 67%, which corresponds to the top half of a normal FE distribution. FE of 57% cuts effect sizes and R2 statistics by factors of 3 and 2–2.5, respectively. Because selection into an option study is inherently a between-family process and assuming that comparable restriction of genetic (G) influences are absent, estimates of SE, G, and nonshared influences will be substantially biased, respectively, down, up, and up by RR. Corrections for RR applied to adoption studies indicate that SE could account for as much as 50% of the variance in IQ. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Movie exposure to smoking cues and adolescent smoking onset: A test for mediation through peer affiliations.

Objective: To determine whether the effect of movie exposure to smoking on adolescent smoking onset is mediated through increased affiliation with peers who smoke. Design: A longitudinal study was conducted with a sample of 5th- 8th graders; persons who were nonsmokers at the baseline assessment (N = 2,614) were followed up 18 months later. Movie exposure to smoking cues was assessed at baseline with a rigorous coding procedure. Main Outcome Measure: A school-based survey and follow-up telephone interview determined whether the participant smoked cigarettes. Results: Longitudinal structural modeling analysis indicated movie-smoking exposure was related to smoking onset both through an indirect effect involving increased affiliation with peer smokers and through a direct effect. The analysis controlled for demographics, parenting style, rebelliousness and sensation seeking, school performance, parental smoking, and sibling smoking; several of these variables also had mediated or direct effects to smoking onset. Conclusion: The effect of movie exposure on adolescent smoking onset is attributable in part to a social mechanism. Implications of media effects for prevention are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Correcting estimates of shared environmental variance for range restriction in adoption studies using a truncated multivariate normal model

A model is presented for the truncated trivariate normal distribution that arises in behavior genetic adoption designs that focus on sibling similarity to estimate shared environmental effects. The model estimates the point of truncation and shared environmentality. Both moment and maximum likelihood estimates are obtained numerically. Simulations indicate that the model and the numerical procedures perform well when they are most needed, that is, when shared environmentality is large, truncation is extensive or both. When applied to published data from the Texas Adoption Project, results indicate that the point of truncation is at about the 63rd percentile of the family environmental quality distribution (i.e., the bottom 63% is missing) and shared environmentality is about 55%. Implications for current views on the importance of shared environment for child developmental outcomes such as antisocial behavior and IQ are discussed.     

Movie exposure to alcohol cues and adolescent alcohol problems: A longitudinal analysis in a national sample.

The authors tested a theoretical model of how exposure to alcohol cues in movies predicts level of alcohol use (ever use plus ever and recent binge drinking) and alcohol-related problems. A national sample of younger adolescents was interviewed by telephone with 4 repeated assessments spaced at 8-month intervals. A structural equation modeling analysis performed for ever-drinkers at Time 3 (N = 961) indicated that, controlling for a number of covariates, movie alcohol exposure at Time 1 was related to increases in peer alcohol use and adolescent alcohol use at Time 2. Movie exposure had indirect effects to alcohol use and problems at Times 3 and 4 through these pathways, with direct effects to problems from Time 1 rebelliousness and Time 2 movie exposure also found. Prospective risk-promoting effects were also found for alcohol expectancies, peer alcohol use, and availability of alcohol in the home; protective effects were found for mother's responsiveness and for adolescent's school performance and self-control. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Detecting and describing preventive intervention effects in a universal school-based randomized trial targeting delinquent and violent behavior.

This study examined theoretical, methodological, and statistical problems involved in evaluating the outcome of aggression on the playground for a universal preventive intervention for conduct disorder. Moderately aggressive children were hypothesized most likely to benefit. Aggression was measured on the playground using observers blind to the group status of the children. Behavior was microcoded in real time to minimize potential expectancy biases. The effectiveness of the intervention was strongly relate to initial levels of aggressiveness. The most aggressive children improved the most. Models that incorporated corrections for low reliability (the ratio of variance due to true time-stable individual differences to total variance) and censoring (a floor effect in the rate data due to short periods of observation) obtained effect sizes 5 times larger than models without such corrections with respect to children who were initially 2 SDs above the mean on aggressiveness. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)