COVID-19 hospitalization rates rise exponentially with age,inversely proportional to thymic T-cell production

Here, we report that COVID-19 hospitalization rates follow an exponential relationship with age, doubling for every 16 years of age or equivalently increasing by 4.5% per year of life (R² = 0.98). This mirrors the well-studied exponential decline of both thymus volume and T-cell production, which halve every 16 years. COVID-19 can therefore be added to the list of other diseases with this property, including those caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, MERS-CoV, West Nile virus, Streptococcus pneumoniae and certain cancers, such as chronic myeloid leukaemia and brain cancers. In addition, the incidence of severe disease and mortality due to COVID-19 are both higher in men, consistent with the degree to which thymic involution (and the decrease in T-cell production with age) is more severe in men compared to women. Since these properties are shared with some non-contagious diseases, we hypothesized that the age dependence does not come from social-mixing patterns, i.e. that the probability of hospitalization given infection rises exponentially, doubling every 16 years. A Bayesian analysis of daily hospitalizations, incorporating contact matrices, found that this relationship holds for every age group except for the under 20s. While older adults have fewer contacts than young adults, our analysis suggests that there is an approximate cancellation between the effects of fewer contacts for the elderly and higher infectiousness due to a higher probability of developing severe disease. Our model fitting suggests under 20s have 49–75% additional immune protection beyond that predicted by strong thymus function alone, consistent with increased juvenile cross-immunity from other viruses. We found no evidence for differences between age groups in susceptibility to infection or infectiousness to others (given disease state), i.e. the only important factor in the age dependence of hospitalization rates is the probability of hospitalization given infection. These findings suggest the existence of a T-cell exhaustion threshold, proportional to thymic output and that clonal expansion of peripheral T-cells does not affect disease risk. The strikingly simple inverse relationship between risk and thymic T-cell output adds to the evidence that thymic involution is an important factor in the decline of the immune system with age and may also be an important clue in understanding disease progression, not just for COVID-19 but other diseases as well.     

Iodo-2'-deoxyuridine (IUdR) and 125IUdR loaded biodegradable microspheres for controlled delivery to the brain

The aim of this work was to develop sustained local release systems for radioiodinated iodo-2'-deoxyuridine (125IUdR) from biodegradable polymeric microspheres to facilitate the controlled delivery of 125IUdR to brain tumours. The selective uptake of IUdR into the cell nucleus results in cell disruption over the short range of the low energy Auger electrons. The biodegradable microspheres can be precisely implanted in the brain by stereotactic techniques and the IUdR within the microspheres is protected from degradation and thus a sustained source of radiolabelled IUdR is available in the vicinity of the residual tumour cells. Poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid), PLGA (85:15), microspheres containing cold IUdR and the Auger-electron emitter 125I, as 125IUdR were prepared using the O/W, O/O and W/O/W emulsion-solvent evaporation methods. The W/O/W emulsion method was most effective in achieving good drug loading with the use of bovine plasma in the internal water phase. Also effective in improving the drug loading was the use of 20% acetone in the dichloromethane and the presence of Span 40 in the organic phase. Electrolytes (NaCl and IUdR) in the external aqueous phase also improved drug loading. After an initial rapid release from the microspheres, a sustained release was observed over 15 days for the 'cold' IUdR. The sustained release portions of the release curves showed Higuchi (t1/2), diffusion controlled release kinetics. The radiolabelled IUdR microspheres showed a burst release effect of 30-40% followed by a sustained release over 35 days.     

Project to develop school education services in Delhi, India

There are many ways in which quantitative decision models can be applied in project management. The introduction of a project evaluation review technique network model to the development of a school education service in the city of Delhi, India, is described. The reasons for choosing this method, its advantages and limitations are discussed. Examples of the information obtained from the model are presented and explained.     

Coupled-mode theory of overmoded cylindrical metal bragg-reflectors

A coupled-mode theory of overmoded, cylindrical metal Bragg-reflectors is presented. The first-order Bragg coupling constants are derived for TE → TE, TM → TM, TE → TM, and TM → TE mode conversions. Reflectivities and transverse modeQ-factors are computed for a Bragg-reflector resonator. The results illustrate important competition effects between nearly-degenerate-transverse-modes occurring within both the Bragg-reflectors and the resonator.     

Longitudinal bone mineral density changes in early rheumatoid arthritis

A prospective longitudinal study of patients with early RA was performed to examine the influence of disease duration, disease activity and physical activity on bone loss. Sixty-seven patients with non-steroid treated RA of less than 5 yr duration, including 16 patients with disease duration less than 6 months, had BMD measurements of the femoral neck and the lumbar spine over a 12-month period using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. The BMD changes were compared with values from 72 control patients and were also correlated with serial measurements of disease activity (measured by the Stoke Index) and disability [measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score], at 3-monthly intervals over the 12-month period. No significant differences in BMD changes were found between RA patients and controls overall. Patients with disease duration of less than 6 months had significantly greater loss of BMD at the femoral neck (-3.9%, S.E.M. 1.5) than the remainder of the cohort (-0.2%, S.E.M. 0.7) (P = 0.02) and controls (-0.8%, S.E.M. 0.6). Lumbar spine BMD changes correlated with the initial Stoke Index (Rs-0.373, P = 0.01) but not mean Stoke Indices. There was no correlation of BMD changes with age or HAQ scores. These findings suggest that significant bone loss occurs within the first few months of disease in patients with RA.     

Role of hepatic resection in surgery for bilateral intrahepatic stones

The effect of phenylephrine-induced reflex parasympathetic stimulation on QT interval and its dispersion was studied in 16 healthy subjects with a history of paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia, both during sinus rhythm and during atrial pacing. Results demonstrate that rapid reflex parasympathetic stimulation does not influence QT interval duration or QT dispersion, and also emphasize the inappropriateness of Bazett's formula, the need for comparison of QT intervals during identical heart rates, and the importance of analyzing all 12 leads of a standard electrocardiogram when assessing the effects of various interventions on the QT interval.     

Transrectal electrostimulation therapy for neuropathic bowel dysfunction in children with myelomeningocele

PURPOSE: We attempted to evaluate the efficacy of transrectal bowel stimulation for neurogenic bowel dysfunction in children with myelodysplasia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Daily sessions of transrectal electrostimulation were performed on an outpatient basis for 2 to 3 weeks on children with myelodysplasia and stool incontinence. If benefits were noted, 5 to 10 additional daily sessions were performed. Complete success was defined as improvement in all parameters of interest, including decrease in the frequency of daily bowel movements, increased sensation, increased ability to hold stool and a significant subjective change in bowel habits. Moderate success implied improvement in 1 to 3 parameters and treatment failure was defined as lack of improvement in any parameter. RESULTS: A total of 55 children 2 to 14 years old (mean age 6.7) completed a mean of 18 daily sessions per patient of bowel electrostimulation. Followup ranged from 1 to 6 years. Diapers are no longer required due to defecation problems in 14 children older than 3 years. Complete success was achieved in 20 cases (36.3%) and moderate success in an additional 30 (54.5%, overall success rate 90.8%). Specifically, 89% of the patients reported elimination of stooling accidents, 82% reported increased sensation and 71% were able to hold the bowel movement. Overall 68% of the patients noticed significantly improved bowel function. Complete/moderate success of transrectal electro-stimulation was statistically significant for all 4 parameters (p < 0.05), and complete success was significant for increased sensation, ability to hold and episodes of accidents. Therapy failed in 5 children (9%). There were no untoward effects. CONCLUSIONS: Transrectal electrostimulation is a well tolerated and minimally invasive modality that provides sustainable improvement in stool continence in children with myelomeningocele and neuropathic bowel dysfunction.     

The lack of long-term detrimental effects on liver allografts caused by donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies

Recent reports indicate a higher incidence of both acute and chronic liver allograft rejection when, at the time of transplantation, the recipients serum contains donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies. From 9/89 to 5/91, 133 liver allografts were performed at our institution. Thirteen liver recipients had donor-specific IgG anti-HLA antibodies (complement-fixing) at the time of transplantation. In eleven patients, antibodies reacted to donor class I antigens while in 1 patient the donor-specific antibody had class II reactivity. Twelve patients have been followed for a minimum of 12 months (median 18 months, range 28-12 months). No hyperacute rejection was seen in any of the cases and four patients had acute rejections. Thus far only one of the twelve patients has biopsy evidence suggestive of chronic liver injury. The remaining have normal liver enzymes and bilirubin. Three of these twelve patients died (one from a myocardial infarction and the others from sepsis) accounting for a one-year graft survival of 75%. There was no significant statistical difference in the one-year graft survival in those recipients without donor-specific antibodies (i.e., 80.5%). In eight of the twelve patients, pretransplant preformed antibody level (PRA) was > 50%. In six of the thirteen patients donor-specific antibody was present at dilutions greater than 1:64. As previously reported, the donor-specific antibody disappeared from the serum posttransplant within hours and did not reappear. In vitro studies demonstrated no factor in portal or hepatic artery blood that could inhibit rabbit complement mediated lysis of anti-HLA antibodies. We conclude that it is not a contraindication to do liver transplants in the presence of donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies.