Moving Endpoints and the Internal Consistency of Agents' Ex Ante Forecasts

Forecasts by rational agents contain embedded initial and terminal boundary conditions. Standard time series models generate two types of long-run boundary values or steady-state 'endpoints' – fixed endpoints and moving average endpoints. Neither can explain the shifting endpoints implied by postwar movements in the cross-section of forward rate forecasts in the term structure or by post-1979 changes in survey estimates of expected long-run inflation. Multiperiod forecasts by a broader class of 'moving endpoint' time series models provide substantially improved tracking of the historical term structure and generally support the internal consistency of the ex ante long-run expectations of bond traders and survey respondents.     

Developments in the treatment of alcoholism

The treatment of alcoholism has changed during the past 2 decades. Notable developments have occurred in pharmacotherapy, psychotherapy, and health-care delivery. A better understanding of the biologic basis for addiction has led to clinical trials of medications that target neuroreceptors. One such medication is the opiate antagonist naltrexone, which decreases the craving for alcohol. Psychosocial interventions continue to be the mainstay of alcohol treatment programs. The efficacy of three different therapies was demonstrated in a study called Project MATCH (Matching Alcoholism Treatments to Client Heterogeneity). This study, however, did not prove the patient-treatment "matching" hypothesis. In addition to therapies provided by addiction specialists, interest is growing in the use of brief motivational techniques in primary-care settings. As the field of addiction responds to an unfolding health-care delivery system, a broader range of treatment options in conjunction with a greater opportunity to individualize patient care is evolving.     

Automatically generated parallel treebanks and their exploitability in machine translation

Given much recent discussion and the shift in focus of the field, it is becoming apparent that the incorporation of syntax is the way forward for improvements to the current state-of-the-art in machine translation (MT). Parallel treebanks are a relatively recent innovation and appear to be ideal candidates for MT training material. However, until recently there has been no other means to build them than by hand. In this paper, we describe how we make use of new tools to automatically build a large parallel treebank and extract a set of linguistically-motivated phrase pairs from it. We show that adding these phrase pairs to the translation model of a baseline phrase-based statistical MT (PB-SMT) system leads to significant improvements in translation quality. Following this, we describe experiments in which we exploit the information encoded in the parallel treebank in other areas of the PB-SMT framework, while investigating the conditions under which the incorporation of parallel treebank data performs optimally. Finally, we discuss the possibility of exploiting automatically-generated parallel treebanks further in syntax-aware paradigms of MT.     

Calibration and validation of coarse-grained models of atomic systems: application to semiconductor manufacturing

Coarse-grained models of atomic systems, created by aggregating groups of atoms into molecules to reduce the number of degrees of freedom, have been used for decades in important scientific and technological applications. In recent years, interest in developing a more rigorous theory for coarse graining and in assessing the predictivity of coarse-grained models has arisen. In this work, Bayesian methods for the calibration and validation of coarse-grained models of atomistic systems in thermodynamic equilibrium are developed. For specificity, only configurational models of systems in canonical ensembles are considered. Among major challenges in validating coarse-grained models are (1) the development of validation processes that lead to information essential in establishing confidence in the model’s ability predict key quantities of interest and (2), above all, the determination of the coarse-grained model itself; that is, the characterization of the molecular architecture, the choice of interaction potentials and thus parameters, which best fit available data. The all-atom model is treated as the “ground truth,” and it provides the basis with respect to which properties of the coarse-grained model are compared. This base all-atom model is characterized by an appropriate statistical mechanics framework in this work by canonical ensembles involving only configurational energies. The all-atom model thus supplies data for Bayesian calibration and validation methods for the molecular model. To address the first challenge, we develop priors based on the maximum entropy principle and likelihood functions based on Gaussian approximations of the uncertainties in the parameter-to-observation error. To address challenge (2), we introduce the notion of model plausibilities as a means for model selection. This methodology provides a powerful approach toward constructing coarse-grained models which are most plausible for given all-atom data. We demonstrate the theory and methods through applications to representative atomic structures and we discuss extensions to the validation process for molecular models of polymer structures encountered in certain semiconductor nanomanufacturing processes. The powerful method of model plausibility as a means for selecting interaction potentials for coarse-grained models is discussed in connection with a coarse-grained hexane molecule. Discussions of how all-atom information is used to construct priors are contained in an appendix.     

Specific populations of the yeast Geotrichum candidum revealed by molecular typing

Geotrichum candidum is a ubiquitous yeast and an essential component in the production of many soft cheeses. We developed a multilocus sequence typing (MLST) scheme with five retained loci (NUP116, URA1, URA3, SAPT4 and PLB3) which were sufficiently divergent to distinguish 40 sequence types (STs) among the 67 G. candidum strains tested. Phylogenetic analyses defined five main clades; one clade was restricted to environmental isolates, three other clades included distinct environmental isolates and dairy strains, while the fifth clade comprised 34 strains (13 STs), among which all but two were isolated from milk, cheese or the dairy environment. These findings suggest an adaptation to the dairy ecosystems by a group of specialized European G. candidum strains. In addition, we developed a polymerase chain reaction inter‐long terminal repeat scheme, a fast and reproducible random amplification of polymorphic DNA‐like method for G. candidum, to type the closely related dairy strains, which could not be distinguished by MLST. Overall, our findings distinguished two types of dairy strains, one forming a homogeneous group with little genetic diversity, and the other more closely related to environmental isolates. Neither regional nor cheese specificity was observed in the dairy G. candidum strains analysed. This present study sheds light on the genetic diversity of both dairy and environmental strains of G. candidum and thus extends previous characterizations that have focused on the cheese isolates of this species. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A posteriori error estimator and adaptive procedures for computation of shakedown and limit loads on pressure vessels

Adaptive finite element procedures are presented for the computation of upper bounds estimates of limit and shakedown loads for pressure vessels. The method consists of an h-type adaptive mesh refinement strategy based upon an a-posteriori error estimator measured by the energy norm. The problem is formulated in a kinematic approach using Koiter's shakedown theorem. A constitutive model, for elastic-perfectly plastic materials, relates the plastic strains increments and curvatures to plastic multipliers through the flow law associated with a shell piecewise-linear yield surface (hexagonal prism). A consistent relationship between nodal displacements and nodal plastic multipliers is enforced by minimizing the strain residual between the total strain and the plastic strain increments, which is measured with respect to the energy norm. Discretization of the shell into finite elements allows the reduction of the problem to a minimization problem which is solved by linear programming.     

Parental socialization of child and adolescent physical activity: A meta-analysis.

Meta-analysis was used to integrate research on the relations between parental socialization behavior and child and adolescent physical activity (PA) levels. Four major databases were examined: PubMED, ERIC, Web of Science, and PsychLit (1960 -2005). Thirty studies met the following inclusion criteria: (a) child age (2-18 years) and (b) statistical information permitting calculation of an effect size between parent socialization behavior and child PA. Mean age of participants across studies ranged from 2.54 to 15.5 years. The unweighted mean and median effect sizes (as indexed by r) were .17 and .13, respectively, indicating that a moderate positive relation exists between parental support and modeling behavior and child and adolescent PA levels. The moderating effect of type of parental socialization behavior, population characteristics, and methodological factors were investigated. Theoretical and methodological implications concern the inclusion of mediated models of parental influence and the use of longitudinal investigations in determining causal direction. From an applied viewpoint, these results are useful for the design of future, more effective childhood obesity prevention programs by suggesting child-age-appropriate parental influences. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Dimensions of leadership and leadership style among group intervention specialists.

A questionnaire measuring 26 group leader characteristics investigated by Lieberman, Yalom and Miles (1973) was administered to 204 experienced group leaders distributed geographically throughout the United States. A confirmatory factor analysis of the data revealed no support for the factor structure previously reported by Lieberman et al. Principal-components analysis with varimax rotation was performed, and an eight-factor solution was adopted. The factors pertained to group leader behavior or style (i.e., Cognitive Direction, Affective Direction, Behavioral Direction, and Nonverbal Exercises), leader personal qualities (i.e., Nurturant Attractiveness and Charismatic Expertness), and leader objectives (i.e., Group Functioning and Personal Functioning). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A posteriori error estimation for acoustic wave propagation problems

Summary The main purpose of this paper is to review a posteriori error estimators for the simulation of acoustic wave propagation problems by computational methods. Residual-type (explicit and implicit) and recovery-type estimators are presented in detail in the case of the Helmholtz problem. Recent work on goal-oriented error estimation techniques with respect to so-called quantities of interest or output functionals are also accounted for. Fundamental results from a priori error estimation are presented and issues dealing with pollution error at large wave numbers are extensively discussed.     

An ecological perspective on smoking among Asian American college students: The roles of social smoking and smoking motives.

Using electronic diaries, the present study examined the roles of social smoking and smoking motives in relation to cigarette use patterns among Asian American college smokers. Multilevel modeling results showed that participants smoked more cigarettes when smoking with peers than when smoking alone. Participants' coping (but not social) motives moderated the within-person associations between smoking with peers and the cigarettes smoked during a smoking episode. The findings support the utility of an ecological perspective in examining the dynamic interaction between smoking motives and the social settings of cigarette use, and call for further research on the social smoking behaviors in diverse populations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)