Schedule estimation and uncertainty surrounding the cone of uncertainty

Software development project schedule estimation has long been a difficult problem. The Standish CHAOS Report indicates that only 20 percent of projects finish on time relative to their original plan. Conventional wisdom proposes that estimation gets better as a project progresses. This concept is sometimes called the cone of uncertainty, a term popularized by Steve McConnell (1996). The idea that uncertainty decreases significantly as one obtains new knowledge seems intuitive. Metrics collected from Landmark's projects show that the estimation accuracy of project duration followed a lognormal distribution, and the uncertainty range was nearly identical throughout the project, in conflict with popular interpretation of the "cone of uncertainty".     

Optical-induced spectral tuning in grating-assisted nonlinearcouplers

The spectral (wavelength) properties of the grating-assisted nonlinear coupler are investigated theoretically. The interaction of linear and nonlinear wavelength-dependent phase detuning leads to a rich display of new and useful characteristics. Among these are bandpass tuning and spectral shaping. The grating frequency is viewed as a `free design parameter' which may be judiciously chosen to bring about an optimum behavior for a given application. As a wavelength processing element, the coupler behaves as an extended and continuously tunable wavelength filter, with tuning proportional to the input power. As an an-optical switch, a broadened and virtually transparent passband is easily achieved, which has desirable consequences for ultra-fast (large bandwidth) switching. The coupler may be operated in two complimentary modes: The active mode, where the power level of an input pulse or signal interacts in a nonlinear fashion with the passband of the coupler; and the passive mode, where a separate idler input is used to bias the device for a desired response to a smaller injected signal     

Association of the glycogen synthase locus on 19q13 with NIDDM in Pima Indians

Skeletal muscle glycogen synthase (encoded by GYS1 on chromosome 19q13.3) is the rate-limiting enzyme in insulin-mediated non-oxidative glucose disposal. Our previous studies have demonstrated an impairment of insulin-stimulated GYS1 activities in insulin-resistant Pima Indians, and associations of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) with the GYS1 locus were reported recently in Finnish and Japanese populations. We have performed linkage and association analyses of GYS1 and seven additional DNA markers on 19q with NIDDM, and with parameters of insulin action in the Pima Indians. We have found a significant association of NIDDM with GYS1 genotypes (p = 0.009), and with common GYS1 alleles (p = 0.022) in the Pima Indians. We have performed a detailed comparative analysis of the GYS1 gene, mRNA, and protein product in insulin-sensitive and insulin-resistant Pima Indians. No mutations in GYS1 coding sequences were detected; nor did we find alterations of GYS1 mRNA expression or of its basal enzymatic activity in insulin-resistant Pima Indians. These results contrasted with a 25% reduction of immunoreactive protein in insulin-resistant subjects as detected by Western blotting with an antibody specific for the C-terminal end of GYS1 (t-test p = 0.024; Wilcoxon's rank-sum test, p = 0.04). Because no mutations were detected in the DNA encoding this epitope, the difference in immunoreactivity may reflect post-translational modification(s) of the protein rather than a difference in the gene itself, or it could have occurred by chance. We conclude that our data do not indicate alterations in the GYS1 gene as the cause for the observed association, and that a different locus near GYS1 may be the contributing genetic element.     

Intracranial hemorrhage associated with idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura: report of seven patients and a meta-analysis

We present the results of a meta-analysis using clinical data obtained from seven of our patients and 24 previously reported patients with idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura complicated by intracranial hemorrhage. Twenty-four had an intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and seven had a subdural hematoma (SDH). Mean age of the patients with ICH was significantly younger than those with SDH. The mortality rate of ICH associated with ITP was similar to that of spontaneous ICH. All seven patients with SDH improved without sequelae.     

S-phase fractions of breast carcinomas. Relationships to morphology, estrogen and progesterone receptors, and early recurrence

Analysis of the S-phase fractions (SPF) measured by in vitro thymidine labeling, morphological appearances, and estrogen receptor (ER) assays of primary invasive breast carcinomas demonstrated several interrelationships. Lobular, mucinous, tubular, and adenocystic carcinomas consistently had low SPF and were usually positive for ER. The same was true for the carcinomas of no special histologic type [the not otherwise specified (NOS) group of E. R. Fisher including "infiltrating ductal" and undifferentiated carcinomas] with minimal anaplasia. Medullary, atypical medullary, and morphologically unclassifiable carcinomas with marked nuclear anaplasia nearly always had high SPF and were usually negative for ER. High SPF was associated with advanced stages of carcinoma initially or with early recurrence following mastectomy.     

Predictability of healing of ischemic leg ulcers by radioisotopic and Doppler ultrasonic examination

In a prospective study of twenty-six patients with ischemic ulcerations of the lower extremity, the predictive reliability with regard to spontaneous wound healing of diabetes, pedal pulses, ankle blood pressure (ABP) as measured by doppler ultrasound, and "leg ulcer scan" as performed by the intra-arterial injection of radioactive albumin was evaluated. The results suggest that only the leg ulcer scan is significantly reliable in predicting the likelihood of spontaneous healing. The following format for the evaluation of the ischemic leg ulcer is therefore suggested: (1) If pedal pulses are present, a three week trial of conservative therapy is indicated before further evaluation. (2) If the doppler ABP is 50 mm Hg or less, the ulcer will not heal spontaneously. (3) Leg ulcer scan is indicated: (a) in the absence of pedal pulses if ABP is less than 50 mm Hg; (b) in the presence of pedal pulses if there is no evidence of spontaneous healing after three weeks of conservative therapy.     

Anesthetic management

Experiments were performed on obligatory bipeds to study the effects of an arteriovenous fistula on a devascularized ischemic limb. Retrograde flow of arterial blood entering the venous system by way of an arteriovenous fistula was demonstrated. Venous valves appeared not to interfere with retrograde arterial flow. The data from these experiments indicate that a "Y" type arteriovenous fistula can lead to functional revascularization in the ischemic limb with arterial obstruction. The dual mechanism of retrograde arterial flow in venous channels and the stimulation of collateral flow adjacent to the fistula seemed to be critical factors. Since a peripheral arteriovenous fistula is a potent stimulus to arterial collateralization in the extremity, its application is worthy of consideration in certain selected patients with advanced and otherwise inoperable arterial occlusive disease.