Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes.

Two empirical judgment phenomena appear to contradict each other. In the revision-of-opinion literature, subjective probability (SP) judgments have been analyzed as a function of objective probability (OP) and generally have been found to be conservative, that is, to represent underconfidence. In the calibration literature, analyses of OP (operationalized as relative frequency correct) as a function of SP have led to the opposite conclusion, that judgment is generally overconfident. Reanalysis of 3 studies shows that both results can be obtained from the same set of data, depending on the method of analysis. The simultaneous effects are then generated and factors influencing them are explored by means of a model that instantiates a very general theory of how SP estimates arise from true judgments perturbed by random error. Theoretical and practical implications of the work are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Forecast aggregation via recalibration

It is known that the average of many forecasts about a future event tends to outperform the individual assessments. With the goal of further improving forecast performance, this paper develops and compares a number of models for calibrating and aggregating forecasts that exploit the well-known fact that individuals exhibit systematic biases during judgment and elicitation. All of the models recalibrate judgments or mean judgments via a two-parameter calibration function, and differ in terms of whether (1) the calibration function is applied before or after the averaging, (2) averaging is done in probability or log-odds space, and (3) individual differences are captured via hierarchical modeling. Of the non-hierarchical models, the one that first recalibrates the individual judgments and then averages them in log-odds is the best relative to simple averaging, with 26.7 % improvement in Brier score and better performance on 86 % of the individual problems. The hierarchical version of this model does slightly better in terms of mean Brier score (28.2 %) and slightly worse in terms of individual problems (85 %).     

Two selective 5-HT1A receptor antagonists, WAY-100 635 and NDL-249, stimulate locomotion in rats acclimatised to their environment and alter their behaviour: a behavioural analysis

The aim was to study firstly, the motor effects of a new 5-HT1A antagonist, NDL-249 [(R)-3-(N-cyclopentyl-N-propylamino)-8-fluoro-3,4-dihydro-2H-1-benzopyra n-5-carboxamide hydrochloride] and of the reference 5-HT1A antagonist WAY-100 635 [N-(2-(1-(4-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazinyl))ethyl)-N-(2-pyridinyl) cyclohexanecarboxamide trihydrochloride], in comparison to the 5-HT1A agonist (+/-)-8-OH-DPAT [(8-hydroxy-2-(di-N-propylamino) tetralin, hereafter 8-OH-DPAT], in rats acclimatised to the automated activity cages; secondly, to study whether the behavioural effects of NDL-249 and 8-OH-DPAT are sensitive to the 5-HT depleting effects of p-chlorophenylalanine (PCPA); thirdly, to characterise the nature of the antagonist-induced activation seen in the automatic activity cages with the aid of a behavioural observation analysis; fourthly, to examine the interaction between the 5-HT1A receptors mediating the behavioural effects and dopamine (DA) receptors. NDL-249 was found to bind in vitro to rat hippocampal 5-HT1A receptors with high affinity and selectivity. In second messenger studies, it was devoid of agonist-like effects. In the locomotor activity studies, each antagonist significantly increased the incidence of horizontal activity, peripheral activity and rearing. 8-OH-DPAT, while significantly increasing peripheral and horizontal activities, decreased the incidence of rearing. PCPA blocked the motor effects of NDL-249 but did not affect those of 8-OH-DPAT. Observational analyses indicated that NDL-249 induced significant increases at one or more doses in sniffing, rearing and locomotion together with a significant reduction in stillness. WAY-100 635 significantly increased the incidence of rearing, intense grooming and vacuous chewing. The significant increases in sniffing, grooming and intense grooming and the significant decrease in stillness induced by the DA D1 agonist, SK&F 38393 [(+/-)-1-phenyl-2,3,4,5-tetrahydro-(1H)-3-benzazepine-7,8-diol hydrochloride], were not altered by concomitant pre-treatment with NDL-249. Pre-treatment of rats with either the DA D1 antagonist SCH-23390 (2,3,4,5-tetrahydro-3-methyl-5-phenyl-1H-3-benzazepin-7-ol) or the DA D2 antagonist, raclopride, blocked the reduced stillness and increased sniffing and rearing induced by NDL-249. In conclusion, 5-HT1A antagonists including the new selective antagonist, NDL-249, induce mild behavioural activation in rats, which is mediated probably indirectly via DA systems.     

Dissociating judgment from response processes in statement verification: the effects of experience on each component

This research used the stochastic judgment model of statement verification to demonstrate a dissociation between judgment and response processes and investigated hypotheses about the effects of practice on each component. Data from respondents judging statements as true or false under various payoffs supported the dissociation and the following conclusions: Their ability to discriminate true from false depended on knowledge domain but not on payoffs. Experience with the domain did not improve this ability but did decrease the trial-by-trial confidence variability associated with memory search. Practice in a different domain had no such effect. Response criteria depended only on payoffs and experience. Criterion variability decreased with cumulative practice over domains. Most respondents had a bias to say "true" under symmetric payoffs, which did not dissipate with experience. Theoretical implications of the results are discussed.     

Effects of probability mode on preference reversal.

Estimated verbally and numerically the chances that specific events will occur using 6 analysts. 60 decision makers used each type of estimate to make binary-choice decisions and to bid for lotteries based on the events. The usual reversal of preference between choice and bidding procedures was found in the numerical condition, but the frequency of preference reversals was significantly reduced in the verbal condition. This reduction occurred because risk aversion was reduced in choice when verbal estimates were given, whereas bidding was unaffected by presentation mode. The pattern of results was predicted by and supports the hypothesis that the relative importance given to the dimensions of a prospect depends on the form in which the information is displayed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Adult age differences in the perception and learning of artistic style categories.

Adult age differences in conceptual behavior were studied using informationally complex stimuli from real-world categories: paintings by two impressionist artists. In Experiment 1 we examined perceptions of category structure by having subjects sort paintings according to style similarity. Young adults were observed to depend more on abstract information in making style judgments, whereas older adults relied more on similarity in content. This resulted in different category structures between age groups, but similarity judgments in both groups appeared to correspond to actual style differences between the two artists. In Experiment 2, learning efficiency was shown to increase with a painting's category centrality, but older adults had particular trouble learning noncentral items. At transfer, both age groups were able to use abstracted central tendency information to categorize new paintings, although young adults appeared to have better access to information about specific category exemplars from acquisition. The results are generally consistent with those from studies using simpler artificial stimuli. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Development of an automatic response mode to improve the clinical utility of sequential risk-taking tasks.

Sequential risk-taking tasks, especially the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), have proven powerful and useful methods in studying and identifying real-world risk takers. A natural index in these tasks is the average number of risks the participant takes in a trial (e.g., pumps on the balloons), but this is difficult to estimate because some trials terminate early because of the consequences of those risks (e.g., when the desired number of balloon pumps exceeds the explosion point). The standard corrective strategy is to use an adjusted score that ignores such event-terminated trials. Although previous data supports the utility of this adjusted score, the authors show formally that it is biased. Therefore, the authors developed an automatic response procedure, in which respondents state at the beginning of each trial how many risks they wish to take and then observe the sequence of events unfold. A study comparing this new automatic and the original manual BART shows that the automatic procedure yields unbiased statistics whereas maintaining the BART's predictive validity of substance use. The authors also found that providing respondents with the expected-value-maximizing strategy and complete trial-by-trial feedback increased the number of risks they were willing to take during the BART. The authors interpret these results in terms of the potential utility of the automatic version including shorter administration time, unbiased behavioral measures, and minimizing motor involvement, which is important in neuroscientific investigations or with clinical populations with motor limitations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The pharmacological characterization of a novel selective 5-hydroxytryptamine1A receptor antagonist, NAD-299

The pharmacological properties of a novel selective 5-hydroxytryptamine1A (5-HT1A) receptor antagonist, NAD-299 [(R)-3-N,N-dicyclobutylamino-8-fluoro-3,4-dihydro-2H-1-benzopyran-5-carboxamide hydrogen (2R,3R)-tartrate monohydrate] were examined in vitro and in vivo and compared with the reference 5-HT1A receptor antagonist, WAY-100635 [N-(2-(1-(4-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazin-yl))ethyl)-N-(2-pyridinyl) cyclohexanecarboxamide trihydrochloride]. The new compound had high affinity for 5-HT1A receptors in vitro with a Ki value of 0.6 nM. The only other receptors for which NAD-299 had affinity less than 1 microM were alpha-1 and beta adrenoceptors with Ki values of 260 and 340 nM, respectively. Thus, the selectivity of NAD-299 for 5-HT1A receptors was more than 400 times. WAY-100635 had considerably higher affinity than NAD-299 for alpha-1 adrenoceptors (Ki = 45 nM) and dopamine D2 and D3 receptors (Ki = 79 and 67 nM, respectively). Like WAY-100635, NAD-299 competitively blocked 5-HT-induced inhibition of vasoactive intestinal peptide-stimulated cAMP production in GH4ZD10 cells and had no intrinsic activity. Both compounds were therefore 5-HT1A receptor antagonists in vitro and also behaved as such in in vivo experiments. Thus, they competitively antagonized the 8-hydroxy-2-(di-n-propylamino)tetralin-induced 5-HT behavioral effects, hypothermia, corticosterone secretion and inhibition of passive avoidance behavior without causing any actions of their own. The effective dose of NAD-299 varied between 0.03 and 0.35 micromol/kg s.c., depending on the test and the dose of 8-hydroxy-2-(di-n-propylamino)tetralin.     

Statement verification: A stochastic model of judgment and response.

Presents a stochastic judgment model (SJM) as a framework for addressing a wide range of issues in statement verification and probability judgment. The SJM distinguishes between covert confidence in the truth of a proposition and the selection of an overt response. A series of experiments demonstrated the model's validity and yielded new results: Binary true–false responses were biased toward true relative to underlying judgment. Underlying judgment was also biased in that direction. Also, in a domain about which Ss had some knowledge, they discriminated true and false statements better when they compared complementary pairs before judging individual statements than when they performed those tasks in the opposite order. The results are interpreted in terms of the SJM and are discussed with respect to implications for theories of statement verification and for research on the accuracy of probability judgments. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)