Expectancy shifts and the expectancy confidence hypothesis.

Explanations of differences in the size of expectancy changes following task outcomes are considered. The control perception hypothesis, the most frequently proposed explanation, is that small expectancy shifts occur when task outcomes are perceived to be externally (i.e., chance) controlled. An alternative explanation, the expectancy confidence hypothesis, is that small shifts occur when Ss are relatively confident of the accuracy of their expectations. Two experiments with 120 female undergraduates examined these positions. Exp I partially replicated the study of J. B. Rotter et al (1961), often cited as supporting the control perception hypothesis. Expectancy confidence was assessed, and as predicted by the expectancy confidence hypothesis, expectancy shifts were related negatively to expectancy confidence. Skill perceptions and levels of expectancy confidence were maniplated in Exp II, and their impact was assessed by several expectancy shift measures. Expectancy confidence influenced expectancy shifts as predicted for 4 of 5 measures, whereas skill perceptions did not significantly affect expectancy shifts on any measure. Expectancy confidence thus exerts a substantial impact on expectancy shifts. The relevance of the findings for a 3rd explanation of expectancy shifts, the causal stability hypothesis, is discussed. (24 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Poor diagnostic reliability, the Null-Bayes Logic Model, and their implications for sexually violent predator evaluations.

Forensic psychologists have approached sexually violent predator (SVP) civil commitment evaluations from the position that respondents must be positive for a condition from the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) of the American Psychiatric Association to be classified as SVPs. The only research on DSM diagnostic reliability in SVP cases has been undertaken by J. S. Levenson (2004a) and R. L. Packard and J. Levenson (2006). Although Packard and Levenson claimed that diagnostic evaluations in SVP cases were highly reliable, a reanalysis of their data indicated otherwise. Further, high levels of diagnostic uncertainty were found for a proposed paraphilia referred to as paraphilia not otherwise specified-nonconsent. Diagnostic criteria used to identify paraphilias among SVP respondents are therefore characterized by poor reliability. Logic models that were previously used to determine diagnostic confidence are also obsolete. Recommendations for improving diagnostic reliability are discussed, and the Null-Bayes Logic Model (NBLM) is proposed as a method for reaching certainty opinions that is superior to past models based on unrestrained clinical judgment. The implications of the present results and the NBLM for future practice, research, and policy directions are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Causal attributions, sanctions, and normal mood variations.

Three experiments with a total of 288 undergraduates tested the causal-locus hypothesis (CLH), which asserts that persons making internal attributions for failure and external attributions for success experience more negative postoutcome moods than persons making the opposite attributions. Although outcomes consistently affected moods and attributions, attributions did not affect moods. Significant correlations consistent with the CLH were infrequently obtained. Another theory, the sanctioned-object hypothesis (SOH), was proposed for understanding how causal attributions lead to mood changes. The SOH asserts that the application of positive or negative sanctions to objects in the perceptual field is a central determinant of mood and that attributions affect mood when their content and salience activate sanctioning processes. Exp IV, with 96 undergraduates, evaluated the competing theories. Results support the SOH but not the CLH. Implications for understanding mood variations and the effects of moods on attributions and methodological alternatives are discussed. (33 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Concurrent and longitudinal patterns among sanctions, mood, and attributions.

Although some theorists claim that attributions are antecedents of mood changes, others argue that they are consequents. It is difficult to resolve this controversy satisfactorily because (a) the possibility that attributions are causally related to mood but mediated by another variable has not been considered fully, and (b) additional longitudinal research, particularly about how attributions are related to the offset of dysphoria, needs to be completed. We report a concurrent and longitudinal study addressing these issues. The concurrent study replicated and extended previous research, demonstrating that attributions for test performance were correlated with sanctions of affirmation and blame when they were correlated with mood. Furthermore, sanctions were more strongly associated with mood than were attributions. In the longitudinal study, sanctions decreased for subjects reporting decreased dysphoria and remained constant for those reporting stable mood. A similar consistency between the patternings of moods and attributions was not found. These results suggest that attributions are related to mood when their effects are mediated by sanctions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A clinically grounded evaluation of attributional theories of depression and psychotherapy.

Discusses the attributional theory of depression and, using clinical data as evidence, argues that identifying the content of an attribution is not sufficient to understand depression. It is suggested that attributional theories were developed outside the clinical context (i.e., working directly with depressed individuals) and therefore do not address the issue of personal meaning. A major goal of psychotherapy is the derivation of personal meaning (C. Rogers, 1947; W. Snyder, 1949) and must be associated with attributions for a fuller understanding of depression. (French abstract) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Low base rates limit expert certainty when current actuarials are used to identify sexually violent predators: An application of Bayes's theorem.

The author applied Bayes's theorem to agewise sexual recidivism rates and the accuracy of high actuarial scores for predicting sexual recidivism in civil commitment cases. Recidivism rates consistently declined with age, paralleling the age-invariance pattern found for other offenders. Furthermore, actuarials were efficient for only the youngest group, were inaccurate for identifying recidivists, and misclassified many nonrecidivists as recidivists. Opinions about the accuracy of actuarials are therefore often wrong, and actuarials need to be reformulated. Finally, actuarials are useless for identifying likely sexual recidivists from populations with recidivism base rates below .25. Recommendations include seeking new trials in cases that overlooked age, focusing attention on young offenders, limiting commitment periods, and shifting resources from commitment centers to impact all offenders released to the community. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Make today count: A collaborative model for professionals and self-help groups.

Presents a narrative report of a field study in which members of a self-help research team provided services of significant, positive impact to one chapter of Make Today Count, a self-help group composed of cancer patients, their spouses, and health care professionals. A collaborative model is formulated. Important elements of this model include adequate knowledge of self-help processes, enhancement of rapport through acceptance of the group, and adoption of a consultive approach. Nonproductive modes on interaction observed between other professionals and chapter members are discussed. The present results are contrasted with negative results reported previously by professionals who attempted to collaborate with a similar self-help population, but who applied a different model. (16 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)