Cost Contingency Management

In the practice of project management, cost contingencies have the objective of covering probable cost increases (risks) above target estimates. Due to the variable performance nature for a wide range of activities, contingencies not only should be properly calculated but also assigned in the budget estimation process and wisely controlled during project execution. In this article, the Monte Carlo simulation approach is recommended as part of a proposed methodology for cost contingency management, which also includes a heuristics for contingency assignment (allocation) among project activities, as long as the activities have some degree of uncertainty regarding their future costs.     

Effect of dietary oils, cholesterol and antioxidant vitamin supplementation on liver microsomal fluidity and xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes in rats

This study was undertaken to compare the effects of four oils: corn (C), olive (O), hazelnut (H) or fish (F), and the intake of two supplements: cholesterol, 1% (Ch) or dl-alpha-tocopherol acetate, 500 mg/kg, and beta-carotene, 30 mg/kg (V), on liver microsomal fluidity, cyt P450 content and aniline hydroxylase (AH), aminopyrine-N-dimethylase (AND) and UDP-glucuronyltransferase (UDP-GT) activities. Male Sprague-Dawley rats (n = 6/group) were fed semipurified diets containing 15% oil, without or with Ch or V, for 20 days. Dietary intake and feed efficiency were lower in rats fed F. Relative liver weight was higher in animals fed F, similar in O and H, and lower in the group fed C. The intake of V increased feed intake in C+V group and decreased the relative liver weight of F+V group, which also decreased with the intake of F+Ch. Ch intake increased the relative liver weight in all groups consuming vegetable oils. Cyt P450 content was higher in rats fed F. Decreased cyt P450 content was observed in C+Ch and F+Ch groups, while it augmented in H+Ch group. Mixture V increased cyt P450 in rats fed C+V, F+V and O+V. The highest membrane fluidity was observed in rats fed F. Fluidity was also higher in group H versus O or C. The intake of Ch decreased microsomal fluidity in all groups, while V induced an increase in microsomal fluidity in group O+V. Rats fed F exhibited higher enzyme activities. AND activity increased with V only in rats fed H+V, while AH activity increased with V intake in groups F+V and O+V. In the C+V group, fluidity was not affected by V, while the cyt P450 content and UDP-GT activity increased. The O+V group exhibited lower UDP-GT activity and higher fluidity and cyt P450 content. The activity of AH decreased in groups F+Ch and C+Ch. UDP-GT activity was higher in rats fed F. It diminished after the intake of Ch in H+Ch and F+Ch. These results indicate that although AH and AND act in the same microsomal metabolic pathway, their localization into the membrane may be determinant of their activity and the response to dietary lipids. It is shown that F intake exerts the most significant effects upon liver microsomal properties, e.g. higher fluidity, cyt P450 content and enzymatic activities, an effect that prevails over the intake of the supplements tested.     

Kinetic study and modeling of the high temperature CO2 capture by Na2ZrO3 solid absorbent

Hydrogen production through sorption enhanced reforming (SER) use a solid CO₂ absorbent to increase hydrogen purity (98%) and to perform reforming and WGS reactions in one single step, thus producing high methane conversions and important energy savings. Na₂ZrO₃ is as an alternate synthetic CO₂ solid absorbent for SER applications. The present research is aimed to establish CO₂ sorption kinetics parameters; reaction order, rate constant, apparent, intrinsic and diffusional activation energies. Na₂ZrO₃ sorption kinetics was studied through TGA as a function of CO₂ concentration and temperature. A global reaction rate of first order in CO₂ and a strong dependence in temperature was found. The approximate solution to the shrinking core model was used to fit the data. Modeling results indicated the surface reaction as the main resistance to the reaction rate, controlling reaction kinetics with only a minor contribution of the product layer diffusion resistance toward the end of the reaction.     

Iron sulfate and feed pelleting to detoxify free gossypol in cottonseed diets for dairy cattle.

Thirty-two lactating cows were fed ad libitum diets with 1) 18.7% soybean meal, 2) diet 1 plus 500 ppm supplemental Fe from FeSO4.H2O, 3) 15% whole cottonseed, or 4) diet 3 plus 500 ppm Fe from FeSO4.H2O. Dry matter intakes were similar except for cows fed diet 2, which was lower. Cows fed whole cottonseed diets ingested 23 g/d of free gossypol per cow. Free gossypol apparently excreted was lower than its intake. Iron excretion was similar to Fe intake. Blood metabolites and productive performance did not differ among the diet groups. No signs of gossypol toxicity were observed. Twelve neonatal Holstein male calves were fed a commercial milk replacer for 4 wk, then were allowed ad libitum access to diets with 1) 27% soybean meal, 2) 50% whole cottonseed, or 3) diet 2 plus 500 ppm Fe from FeSO4.H2O. Dry matter intakes were similar but slightly lower for calves fed diet 3. Daily individual intakes of free gossypol from diets 2 and 3 were 2 g, which was lower than the expected 4 g due to an apparent effect of pelleting. Blood metabolites did not differ among the groups, and calves averaged about .6 kg of daily gain on these diets. A follow-up study showed that pelleting reduced free gossypol by as much as 70% in whole cottonseed and by 48% in cottonseed meal. Pelleting represents a mechanism to decrease the toxicity of gossypol in cottonseed products.     

Probabilistic Monitoring of Project Performance Using SS-Curves

The purpose of this study was to develop a new concept of project control. This new concept uses stochastic S-curves (SS-Curves) as an alternative to using the deterministic S-curve technique commonly employed in professional practice. SS-curves are developed by determining the activity level variability in cost and duration. Simulation is the recommended approach for obtaining SS-curves, similar to the way that stochastic schedules are currently developed. SS-curves provide probability distributions for expected cost and duration for a given percentage of work completed. Monitoring project performance is performed by comparing the most likely budget and duration values, obtained from respective probability distributions for actual progress, with the project's actual data and cumulative cost. By using this method, an evaluation of actual project performance can be developed that appropriately considers the natural variability of construction costs and duration, rather than utilizing only one possible deterministic outcome. Given the probabilistic characteristics of SS-curves, additional benefits are presented that enable a more comprehensive project control methodology.     

Probabilistic Forecasting of Project Performance Using Stochastic S Curves

This study presents a new methodology for evaluating at-completion project performance status. This new procedure uses the concept of stochastic S curves (SS curves) to determine forecasted project estimates as an alternative to using deterministic S curves and traditional forecasting methods. A simulation approach is used for generating the stochastic S curves, and it is based on the defined variability in duration and cost of the individual activities within the process. Stochastic S curves provide probability distributions for the budget and time values required to complete the project at every selected point of intermediate completion. Final project performance is determined by comparing the planned budget and project duration, with the expected forecasted final cost and elapsed time, respectively. The SS-curve methodology permits objective evaluation of project performance without the limitations inherent in a deterministic approach. The probabilistic characteristics of this approach enable users to more accurately determine at-completion cost and duration variations and evaluate the performance improvement of proposed corrective actions.     

Time course of brightness under transient glare condition

It was shown that a peripheral glare source reduces the brightness of a foveal stimulus. We hypothesized that this brightness reduction is governed by an inhibitory effect of the glare source on the test. We reported the results of an investigation of the dynamic of brightness reduction of an incremental stimulus immediately after the onset of a glare source in the field of view. A magnitude comparison paradigm using constant stimuli was adopted to determine the luminance that appeared equal in brightness to the standard patch. The luminance of the standard stimulus was in the mesopic range (0.5 cd/m2), and the levels of glare were 15 and 60 lx. Results showed that the time course of brightness reduction followed the typical shape attributed to the Broca-Sulzer effect. Data were fitted with a model that first considers the response of a peripheral ganglion cell to glare and then its inhibitory effect on the test signals. We discussed the plausibility of a postretinal stage of processing.