International Working Group on Assurance Cases (for Security)

Critical systems are aptly named - from electric power to water and gas to the telephone system and the Internet, they're all critical to some aspect of our daily lives. We're a networked society and as such, it's important to both know whether critical systems are trustworthy and be able to communicate, review, and debate the level of trust achieved in them. In the safety domain, explicit safety cases are increasingly required by law, regulations, and standards. In this article, we outline what a small, international group of experts, spanning various disciplines in safety, security, reliability, and critical infrastructure, been doing with the International Working Group on Assurance Cases (for Security), what we hope to achieve, and where we go next.     

How many neonates in New Zealand would qualify for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation?

AIM: To estimate how many neonates in New Zealand would qualify for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), using both standard published criteria and locally derived criteria. METHODS: Retrospective chart review of all babies with a birth weight over 2000 g admitted to neonatal intensive care in Auckland from June 1990 to June 1993. Ventilation and blood gas indices were calculated for all babies who were ventilated in 100% O2 for more than 4 hours and who met the basic criteria for ECMO (less than 1 week old with no neurological or chromosomal problems). These indices were compared with published ECMO criteria. Using a threshold of an 80% mortality, Auckland criteria for ECMO were derived. RESULTS: Of the published criteria for ECMO, only an oxygenation index of greater than 40 for 4 hours predicted a mortality of more than 80% in our population. From our own findings a PaO2 < 6.5 kPa for 4 hours predicted a mortality of 79%. CONCLUSION: Approximately 19 neonates might qualify for ECMO in New Zealand each year.     

A randomized controlled trial of filgrastim during remission induction and consolidation chemotherapy for adults with acute lymphoblastic leukemia: CALGB study 9111

Recombinant human granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF; filgrastim) shortens the time to neutrophil recovery after intensive chemotherapy, but its role in the treatment of adults with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is uncertain. We randomly assigned 198 adults with untreated ALL (median age, 35 years; range, 16 to 83) to receive either placebo or G-CSF (5 microgram/kg/d) subcutaneously, beginning 4 days after starting intensive remission induction chemotherapy and continuing until the neutrophil count was >/=1, 000/microL for 2 days. The study assignment was unblinded as individual patients achieved a complete remission (CR). Patients initially assigned to G-CSF then continued to receive G-CSF through 2 monthly courses of consolidation therapy. Patients assigned to placebo received no further study drug. The median time to recover neutrophils >/=1,000/microL during the remission induction course was 16 days (interquartile range [IQR], 15 to 18 days) for the patients assigned to receive G-CSF and 22 days (IQR, 19 to 29 days) for the patients assigned to placebo (P < .001). Patients in the G-CSF group had significantly shorter durations of neutropenia (<1, 000/microL) and thrombocytopenia (<50,000/microL) and fewer days in the hospital (median, 22 days v 28 days; P = .02) compared with patients receiving placebo. The patients assigned to receive G-CSF had a higher CR rate and fewer deaths during remission induction than did those receiving placebo (P = .04 by the chi-square test for trend). During Courses IIA and IIB of consolidation treatment, patients in the G-CSF group had significantly more rapid recovery of neutrophils >/=1,000/microL than did the control group by approximately 6 to 9 days. However, the patients in the G-CSF group did not complete the planned first 3 months of chemotherapy any more rapidly than did the patients in the placebo group. Overall toxicity was not lessened by the use of G-CSF. After a median follow-up of 4. 7 years, there were no significant differences in either the disease-free survival (P = .53) or the overall survival (P = .25) for the patients assigned to G-CSF (medians, 2.3 years and 2.4 years, respectively) compared with those assigned to placebo (medians, 1.7 and 1.8 years, respectively). Adults who received intensive chemotherapy for ALL benefited from G-CSF treatment, but its use did not markedly affect the ultimate outcome.     

PERIODIC CORRELATION IN STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DATA

Abstract. A 50-year time series of monthly stratospheric ozone readings from Arosa, Switzerland, is analyzed. The time series exhibits the properties of a periodically correlated (PC) random sequence with annual periodicities. Spectral properties of PC random sequences are reviewed and a test to detect periodic correlation is presented. An autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) model with periodically varying coefficients (PARMA) is fitted to the data in two stages. First, a periodic autoregressive model is fitted to the data. This fit yields residuals that are stationary but non-white. Next, a stationary ARMA model is fitted to the residuals and the two models are combined to produce a larger model for the data. The combined model is shown to be a PARMA model and yields residuals that have the correlation properties of white noise.     

DNA condensation by multivalent cations

The abrasive effect of various porcelain surfaces on human enamel was studied in vitro. Sixty pairs of tooth-porcelain specimens were tested under a standard load and rate in distilled water and with and without intermittent exposure to a carbonated beverage. The amount of wear of enamel and porcelain specimens was determined after 5,000, 15,000, and 25,000 cycles. After 25,000 cycles there was no significant difference in the enamel wear between glazed and polished groups, but wear produced by the unglazed groups was significantly higher (P < .05). Overall, exposure to a carbonated beverage significantly increased the amount of enamel wear produced by all porcelain surfaces (P < .001). The finish of the porcelain surface did not influence its wear.     

The optimisation of intermittent heating

The theory of optimal control is applied to intermittent heating. The general characteristics of the control are determined and their strategies compared with the performance of existing ‘optimum start controls’. Difficulties are identified particularly where the system includes more than one time constant. The existence of an ‘optimal stop’ control is established but its savings are shown to be small compared to ‘optimal start’. The ‘flywheel’ effect of the additional thermal inertia of heavyweight heating systems are then argued not to offer substantial savings. A general numerical technique is provided which enables the optimal heating strategy to be derived from a knowledge of the building response factor alone. The technique allows great flexibility in the type of constraints that can be imposed and an example is given of its application.     

3G Trials and Developments

This paper summarises the many activities that formed a vigorous and innovative phase of understanding 3rd generation systems and their potential service/product offering.Experience from the introduction of 2nd generation GSM systems showed that, even though based upon strong standards, real hands-on development to validate the design activities was essential for both a workable standard and a smooth and successful service deployment. Trials activities are used to overcome the lack of validation and to bring innovation through integration of capabilities and devices — they consist of two areas. Firstly, a number of test radio systems were examined and used in the validation of network planning tools plus measurement or real throughput figures, and, secondly, some service scenarios were developed and implemented on an all-IP network to demonstrate that IP can deliver a marketable services level. The interaction with wireless systems and the impact of that on the application were also examined.     

An experimental design approach to the optimisation of a flow injection analysis method for glycine

A flow injection analysis method for the determination of glycine, based on the reaction with ortho-phtalaldehyde and N-acetylcysteine in a basic buffer, was optimised. In the first step screening of the variables, to select the most important ones, was performed using: (i) a half-fraction factorial design and (ii) a quarter-fraction factorial design, for five factors at two levels. The effects of the factors on the peak height were calculated from both screening designs and compared. For the half-fraction factorial design (resolution IV), the significance of the factor effects on the peak height was checked by: (i) comparing them with a critical effect, calculated from two-factor interactions and based on a t-test, (ii) using a non parametric approach and (iii) drawing a normal probability plot. For the quarter-fraction factorial design (resolution III) the significance of the effects of the factors on the peak height was checked using: (i) a randomization test method, (ii) the non parametric method and (iii) a normal probability plot. In the second step, the factor found to be of importance was optimised using the uniplex method.     

Cellular automata and integrodifferential equation models for cell renewal in mosaic tissues

Mosaic tissues are composed of two or more genetically distinct cell types. They occur naturally, and are also a useful experimental method for exploring tissue growth and maintenance. By marking the different cell types, one can study the patterns formed by proliferation, renewal and migration. Here, we present mathematical modelling suggesting that small changes in the type of interaction that cells have with their local cellular environment can lead to very different outcomes for the composition of mosaics. In cell renewal, proliferation of each cell type may depend linearly or nonlinearly on the local proportion of cells of that type, and these two possibilities produce very different patterns. We study two variations of a cellular automaton model based on simple rules for renewal. We then propose an integrodifferential equation model, and again consider two different forms of cellular interaction. The results of the continuous and cellular automata models are qualitatively the same, and we observe that changes in local environment interaction affect the dynamics for both. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the models reproduce some of the patterns seen in actual mosaic tissues. In particular, our results suggest that the differing patterns seen in organ parenchymas may be driven purely by the process of cell replacement under different interaction scenarios.