A practical assessment of risk-averse approaches in production lot-sizing problems

ABSTRACT

This paper presents an empirical assessment of four state-of-the-art risk-averse approaches to deal with the capacitated lot-sizing problem under stochastic demand. We analyse two mean-risk models based on the semideviation and on the conditional value-at-risk risk measures, and alternate first and second-order stochastic dominance approaches. The extensive computational experiments based on different instances characteristics and on a case-study suggest that CVaR exhibits a good trade-off between risk and performance, followed by the semideviation and first-order stochastic dominance approach. For all approaches, enforcing risk-aversion helps to reduce the cost-standard deviation substantially, which is usually accomplished via increasing production rates. Overall, we can say that very risk-averse decision-makers would be willing to pay an increased price to have a much less risky solution given by CVaR. In less risk-averse settings, though, semideviation and first-order stochastic dominance can be appealing alternatives to provide significantly more stable production planning costs with a marginal increase of the expected costs.     

Experimental and numerical analysis of the influence of cable tray arrangements on the resulting mass loss rate and fire spreading

In the context of industrial buildings and power plants, electrical installations and cable trays represent a main fuel load and a potential initial fire source due to possible short circuits or comparable malfunction. Furthermore, a fire can spread from one tray to additional trays mounted above and/or horizontally on one tray. Because of the high significance of cable fires, several research projects have been carried out, investigating the fire behaviour of cables from small‐scale tests, eg, the cone calorimeter, up to large‐scale tests, analysing complete cable tray constructions. The goal of the work presented in this paper is the extension of the knowledge regarding the influence of geometrical parameters like the packing density and tray distance on the burning behaviour and fire spread of cable tray installations. The results are considered, together with test results from the literature, to quantify the main physical parameters describing the burning behaviour. In a next step, the general applicability of these parameters as input data for the parametrization of the source term of numerical simulations is shown. The test results show that the burning behaviour and the fire spreading highly depend on the cable arrangement of the cables on the cable tray, in combination with other boundary conditions. By applying the results as input for a fire simulation, the mass loss rate is considered appropriately.     

Real-time organic aerosol chemical speciation in the indoor environment using extractive electrospray ionization mass spectrometry

Understanding the sources and composition of organic aerosol (OA) in indoor environments requires rapid measurements, since many emissions and processes have short timescales. However, real-time molecular-level OA measurements have not been reported indoors. Here, we present quantitative measurements, at a time resolution of five seconds, of molecular ions corresponding to diverse aerosol-phase species, by applying extractive electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (EESI-MS) to indoor air analysis for the first time, as part of the highly instrumented HOMEChem field study. We demonstrate how the complex spectra of EESI-MS are screened in order to extract chemical information and investigate the possibility of interference from gas-phase semivolatile species. During experiments that simulated the Thanksgiving US holiday meal preparation, EESI-MS quantified multiple species, including fatty acids, carbohydrates, siloxanes, and phthalates. Intercomparisons with Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) and Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer suggest that EESI-MS quantified a large fraction of OA. Comparisons with FIGAERO-CIMS shows similar signal levels and good correlation, with a range of 100 for the relative sensitivities. Comparisons with SV-TAG for phthalates and with SV-TAG and AMS for total siloxanes also show strong correlation. EESI-MS observations can be used with gas-phase measurements to identify co-emitted gas- and aerosol-phase species, and this is demonstrated using complementary gas-phase PTR-MS observations.     

Mining statistically significant associations for exploratory analysis of human sleep data.

We introduce a specialized association rule mining technique that can extract patterns from complex sleep data comprising polysomnographic recordings, clinical summaries, and sleep questionnaire responses. The rules mined can describe associations among temporally annotated events and questionnaire or summary data; e.g., the likelihood that an occurrence of a rapid eye movement (REM) sleep stage during the second 100 sleep epochs of the night is associated with moderate caffeine intake. We use chi2 analysis to ensure statistical significance of the mined rules at the level P < 0.05. Our results, obtained by mining sleep-related data from 242 human subjects, reveal clinically interesting associations among the polysomnographic and summary variables. Our experience suggests that association mining may also be useful for selection of variables prior to using logistic regression.     

Capacity Efficiency and Restorability of Path Protection and Rerouting in WDM Networks Subject to Dual Failures

Resilient optical networks are predominately designed to protect against single failures of fiber links. But in larger networks, operators also see dual failures. As the capacity was planned for single failures, disconnections can occur by dual failures even if enough topological connectivity is provided. In our approach the design of the network minimizes the average loss caused by dual failures, while single failures are still fully survived. High dual failure restorability is the primary aim, capacity is optimized in a second step. For WDM networks with full wavelength conversion, we formulate mixed integer linear programming models for dedicated path protection, shared (backup) path protection, and path rerouting with and without stub-release. For larger problem instances in path rerouting, we propose two heuristics. Computational results indicate that the connectivity is of much more importance for high restorability values than the overall protection capacity. Shared protection has similar restorability levels as dedicated protection while the capacity is comparable to rerouting. Rerouting surpasses the protection mechanisms in restorability and comes close to 100% dual failure survivability. Compared to single failure planning, both shared path protection and rerouting need significantly more capacity in dual failure planning.     

An integrated system to remote monitor and control anaerobic wastewater treatment plants through the internet.

The TELEMAC project brings new methodologies from the Information and Science Technologies field to the world of water treatment. TELEMAC offers an advanced remote management system which adapts to most of the anaerobic wastewater treatment plants that do not benefit from a local expert in wastewater treatment. The TELEMAC system takes advantage of new sensors to better monitor the process dynamics and to run automatic controllers that stabilise the treatment plant, meet the depollution requirements and provide a biogas quality suitable for cogeneration. If the automatic system detects a failure which cannot be solved automatically or locally by a technician, then an expert from the TELEMAC Control Centre is contacted via the internet and manages the problem.     

Infrequent association: massive inguinoscrotal bladder hernia, multiple scrotal lithiasis, and bilateral obstructive uropathy]

BACKGROUND AND AIMS OF THE STUDY: Surgical treatment of functional tricuspid regurgitation associated with advanced valvular disease remains controversial, mainly due to the difficulty in choosing between valve replacement or reconstructive surgery. Failure to correct tricuspid regurgitation during valvular surgery carries a poor prognosis, as reoperation may represent a significant risk to the patient. Thus correct tricuspid valve surgery is vital to achieve improved early and long-term clinical results. METHODS: A total of 142 patients underwent concomitant tricuspid annuloplasty with mitral valve replacement and their clinical outcome was assessed. RESULTS: Overall hospital mortality rate was 11.3%. Seven patients died during follow up. The overall actuarial survival rate for 10 years was 74.1 +/- 14.2%. Postoperatively, 75.8% of the patients had no residual tricuspid insufficiency, while 24.2% had first- or second-degree tricuspid insufficiency and were treated medically. All patients were in NHYA functional class I or II postoperatively. CONCLUSION: Clinically, it is important to assess the severity of functional tricuspid insufficiency before and/or during the operation. Bicuspidalization annuloplasty for functional tricuspid insufficiency has provided good results, with a low incidence of reoperation and significant clinical improvement. The technique could be used in most patients with functional tricuspid regurgitation.