COVID-19 hospitalization rates rise exponentially with age,inversely proportional to thymic T-cell production

Here, we report that COVID-19 hospitalization rates follow an exponential relationship with age, doubling for every 16 years of age or equivalently increasing by 4.5% per year of life (R² = 0.98). This mirrors the well-studied exponential decline of both thymus volume and T-cell production, which halve every 16 years. COVID-19 can therefore be added to the list of other diseases with this property, including those caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, MERS-CoV, West Nile virus, Streptococcus pneumoniae and certain cancers, such as chronic myeloid leukaemia and brain cancers. In addition, the incidence of severe disease and mortality due to COVID-19 are both higher in men, consistent with the degree to which thymic involution (and the decrease in T-cell production with age) is more severe in men compared to women. Since these properties are shared with some non-contagious diseases, we hypothesized that the age dependence does not come from social-mixing patterns, i.e. that the probability of hospitalization given infection rises exponentially, doubling every 16 years. A Bayesian analysis of daily hospitalizations, incorporating contact matrices, found that this relationship holds for every age group except for the under 20s. While older adults have fewer contacts than young adults, our analysis suggests that there is an approximate cancellation between the effects of fewer contacts for the elderly and higher infectiousness due to a higher probability of developing severe disease. Our model fitting suggests under 20s have 49–75% additional immune protection beyond that predicted by strong thymus function alone, consistent with increased juvenile cross-immunity from other viruses. We found no evidence for differences between age groups in susceptibility to infection or infectiousness to others (given disease state), i.e. the only important factor in the age dependence of hospitalization rates is the probability of hospitalization given infection. These findings suggest the existence of a T-cell exhaustion threshold, proportional to thymic output and that clonal expansion of peripheral T-cells does not affect disease risk. The strikingly simple inverse relationship between risk and thymic T-cell output adds to the evidence that thymic involution is an important factor in the decline of the immune system with age and may also be an important clue in understanding disease progression, not just for COVID-19 but other diseases as well.     

Social Support and Social Strain Among Husbands and Wives: A Multilevel Analysis.

In response to recent calls in the literature for within-person examinations of social support processes over time, this study explores the relationships of spousal support, spousal strain, and well-being among husbands and wives, both within the same day and across days. Eighty-three couples were interviewed and completed a structured diary twice daily for 1 week. The results of multilevel hierarchical modeling suggest that both spousal support and spousal strain made significant, independent contributions to concurrent negative affect, although only spousal support was a significant predictor of next-day negative affect. Spousal strain interacted with spousal support to predict next-day negative affect. Direct and moderating effects of perceived marital adjustment on negative affect were discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Providing information to clients about psychological tests: A survey of attorneys' and law students' attitudes.

Surveyed 70 practicing attorneys and 150 law students to determine the extent to which they felt it was their responsibility to inform clients they referred for psychological testing about the testing process and about the validity scales on tests. Results showed that almost 50% of the attorneys and over 33% of the students believe that clients referred for testing always or usually should be informed of validity scales on tests. These results suggest that many test takers, particularly in forensic settings, may have information about validity scales that facilitates their giving biased responses without detection. Psychologists doing forensic evaluations should be alert to this possibility and should consider using more than one approach to detect response distortions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Project to develop school education services in Delhi, India

There are many ways in which quantitative decision models can be applied in project management. The introduction of a project evaluation review technique network model to the development of a school education service in the city of Delhi, India, is described. The reasons for choosing this method, its advantages and limitations are discussed. Examples of the information obtained from the model are presented and explained.     

Optimal design of gating systems by gradient search methods

A numerical optimization technique based on gradient-search is applied to obtain an optimal design of a typical gating system used for the gravity process to produce aluminum parts. This represents a novel application of coupling nonlinear optimization techniques with a foundry process simulator, and it is motivated by the fact that a scientifically guided search for better designs based on techniques that take into account the mathematical structure of the problem is preferred to commonly found trial-and-error approaches. The simulator applies the finite volume method and the VOF algorithm for CFD analysis. The direct gradient optimization algorithm, sequential quadratic programming (SQP), was used to solve both a 2D and a 3D gating system design problems using two design variables. The results clearly show the effectiveness of the proposed approach for finding high quality castings when compared with current industry practices.     

Coupled-mode theory of overmoded cylindrical metal bragg-reflectors

A coupled-mode theory of overmoded, cylindrical metal Bragg-reflectors is presented. The first-order Bragg coupling constants are derived for TE → TE, TM → TM, TE → TM, and TM → TE mode conversions. Reflectivities and transverse modeQ-factors are computed for a Bragg-reflector resonator. The results illustrate important competition effects between nearly-degenerate-transverse-modes occurring within both the Bragg-reflectors and the resonator.     

Longitudinal bone mineral density changes in early rheumatoid arthritis

A prospective longitudinal study of patients with early RA was performed to examine the influence of disease duration, disease activity and physical activity on bone loss. Sixty-seven patients with non-steroid treated RA of less than 5 yr duration, including 16 patients with disease duration less than 6 months, had BMD measurements of the femoral neck and the lumbar spine over a 12-month period using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. The BMD changes were compared with values from 72 control patients and were also correlated with serial measurements of disease activity (measured by the Stoke Index) and disability [measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score], at 3-monthly intervals over the 12-month period. No significant differences in BMD changes were found between RA patients and controls overall. Patients with disease duration of less than 6 months had significantly greater loss of BMD at the femoral neck (-3.9%, S.E.M. 1.5) than the remainder of the cohort (-0.2%, S.E.M. 0.7) (P = 0.02) and controls (-0.8%, S.E.M. 0.6). Lumbar spine BMD changes correlated with the initial Stoke Index (Rs-0.373, P = 0.01) but not mean Stoke Indices. There was no correlation of BMD changes with age or HAQ scores. These findings suggest that significant bone loss occurs within the first few months of disease in patients with RA.