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Electricity spot prices are complex processes characterized by nonlinearity and extreme volatility. Previous work on nonlinear
modeling of electricity spot prices has shown encouraging results, and we build on this area by proposing an Expectation Maximization
algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of recurrent neural networks utilizing the Kalman filter and smoother. This involves
inference of both parameters and hyper-parameters of the model which takes into account the model uncertainty and noise in
the data. The Expectation Maximization algorithm uses a forward filtering and backward smoothing (Expectation) step, followed
by a hyper-parameter estimation (Maximization) step. The model is validated across two data sets of different power exchanges.
It is found that after learning a posteriori hyper-parameters, the proposed algorithm outperforms the real-time recurrent learning and the extended Kalman Filtering algorithm
for recurrent networks, as well as other contemporary models that have been previously applied to the modeling of electricity
spot prices. 相似文献
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