Averaging, maximum penalized likelihood and Bayesian estimation forimproving Gaussian mixture probability density estimates

We apply the idea of averaging ensembles of estimators to probability density estimation. In particular, we use Gaussian mixture models which are important components in many neural-network applications. We investigate the performance of averaging using three data sets. For comparison, we employ two traditional regularization approaches, i.e., a maximum penalized likelihood approach and a Bayesian approach. In the maximum penalized likelihood approach we use penalty functions derived from conjugate Bayesian priors such that an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm can be used for training. In all experiments, the maximum penalized likelihood approach and averaging improved performance considerably if compared to a maximum likelihood approach. In two of the experiments, the maximum penalized likelihood approach outperformed averaging. In one experiment averaging was clearly superior. Our conclusion is that maximum penalized likelihood gives good results if the penalty term in the cost function is appropriate for the particular problem. If this is not the case, averaging is superior since it shows greater robustness by not relying on any particular prior assumption. The Bayesian approach worked very well on a low-dimensional toy problem but failed to give good performance in higher dimensional problems.     

Kernel-based reinforcement learning in average-cost problems

Reinforcement learning (RL) is concerned with the identification of optimal controls in Markov decision processes (MDPs) where no explicit model of the transition probabilities is available. We propose a class of RL algorithms which always produces stable estimates of the value function. In detail, we use "local averaging" methods to construct an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) algorithm. Nearest-neighbor regression, grid-based approximations, and trees can all be used as the basis of this approximation. We provide a thorough theoretical analysis of this approach and we demonstrate that ADP converges to a unique approximation in continuous-state average-cost MDPs. In addition, we prove that our method is consistent in the sense that an optimal approximate strategy is identified asymptotically. With regard to a practical implementation, we suggest a reduction of ADP to standard dynamic programming in an artificial finite-state MDP.     

Kernel-Based Reinforcement Learning

We present a kernel-based approach to reinforcement learning that overcomes the stability problems of temporal-difference learning in continuous state-spaces. First, our algorithm converges to a unique solution of an approximate Bellman's equation regardless of its initialization values. Second, the method is consistent in the sense that the resulting policy converges asymptotically to the optimal policy. Parametric value function estimates such as neural networks do not possess this property. Our kernel-based approach also allows us to show that the limiting distribution of the value function estimate is a Gaussian process. This information is useful in studying the bias-variance tradeoff in reinforcement learning. We find that all reinforcement learning approaches to estimating the value function, parametric or non-parametric, are subject to a bias. This bias is typically larger in reinforcement learning than in a comparable regression problem.     

Representing cyclic human motion using functional analysis

We present a robust automatic method for modeling cyclic 3D human motion such as walking using motion-capture data. The pose of the body is represented by a time-series of joint angles which are automatically segmented into a sequence of motion cycles. The mean and the principal components of these cycles are computed using a new algorithm that enforces smooth transitions between the cycles by operating in the Fourier domain. Key to this method is its ability to automatically deal with noise and missing data. A learned walking model is then exploited for Bayesian tracking of 3D human motion.