Using compiled knowledge to guide and focus abductive diagnosis

Several artificial intelligence architectures and systems based on “deep” models of a domain have been proposed, in particular for the diagnostic task. These systems have several advantages over traditional knowledge based systems, but they have a main limitation in their computational complexity. One of the ways to face this problem is to rely on a knowledge compilation phase, which produces knowledge that can be used more effectively with respect to the original one. We show how a specific knowledge compilation approach can focus reasoning in abductive diagnosis, and, in particular, can improve the performances of AID, an abductive diagnosis system. The approach aims at focusing the overall diagnostic cycle in two interdependent ways: avoiding the generation of candidate solutions to be discarded a posteriori and integrating the generation of candidate solutions with discrimination among different candidates. Knowledge compilation is used off-line to produce operational (i.e., easily evaluated) conditions that embed the abductive reasoning strategy and are used in addition to the original model, with the goal of ruling out parts of the search space or focusing on parts of it. The conditions are useful to solve most cases using less time for computing the same solutions, yet preserving all the power of the model-based system for dealing with multiple faults and explaining the solutions. Experimental results showing the advantages of the approach are presented     

Bayesian networks in reliability

Over the last decade, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become a popular tool for modelling many kinds of statistical problems. We have also seen a growing interest for using BNs in the reliability analysis community. In this paper we will discuss the properties of the modelling framework that make BNs particularly well suited for reliability applications, and point to ongoing research that is relevant for practitioners in reliability.     

Case-Base Maintenance in a Multimodal Reasoning System

The definition of suitable case-base maintenance policies is widely recognized as a major key to success for case-based systems; underestimating this issue may lead to systems that either do not fulfill their role of knowledge management and preservation or that do not perform adequately under performance dimensions, namely, computation time and competence and quality of solutions. The goal of this article is to analyze some automatic case-base management strategies in the context of a multimodal architecture combining case-based reasoning and model-based reasoning. We propose and compare two different methodologies, the first one, called replace , is a competence-based strategy aimed at replacing a set of stored cases with the current one, if the latter exhibits an estimated competence comparable with the estimated competence of the considered set of stored cases. The second one, called learning by failure with forgetting (LFF), is based on incremental learning of cases interleaved with off-line processes of forgetting (deleting) cases whose usage does not fulfill specific utility conditions. Results from an extensive experimental analysis in an industrial plant diagnosis domain are reported, showing the usefulness of both strategies with respect to the maintenance of suitable performance levels for the target system.     

Improving the analysis of dependable systems by mapping fault trees into Bayesian networks

Bayesian Networks (BN) provide a robust probabilistic method of reasoning under uncertainty. They have been successfully applied in a variety of real-world tasks but they have received little attention in the area of dependability. The present paper is aimed at exploring the capabilities of the BN formalism in the analysis of dependable systems. To this end, the paper compares BN with one of the most popular techniques for dependability analysis of large, safety critical systems, namely Fault Trees (FT). The paper shows that any FT can be directly mapped into a BN and that basic inference techniques on the latter may be used to obtain classical parameters computed from the former (i.e. reliability of the Top Event or of any sub-system, criticality of components, etc). Moreover, by using BN, some additional power can be obtained, both at the modeling and at the analysis level. At the modeling level, several restrictive assumptions implicit in the FT methodology can be removed and various kinds of dependencies among components can be accommodated. At the analysis level, a general diagnostic analysis can be performed. The comparison of the two methodologies is carried out by means of a running example, taken from the literature, that consists of a redundant multiprocessor system.     

Sequential application of heterogeneous models for the safetyanalysis of a control system: a case study

This paper shows how heterogeneous stochastic modelling techniques of increasing modelling power can be applied to assess the safety of a digital control system. First, a Fault-Tree (FT) has been built to model the system, assuming two-state components and independent failures. Then, the FT is automatically converted into a Bayesian Network, allowing to include more modelling details and localized dependencies. Finally, in order to accommodate repair activities and perform an availability analysis, the FT is converted into a Stochastic Petri Net (SPN). Moving from a combinatorial model (the FT) to a state space based model (the SPN) increases the modelling flexibility, but incurs into the state space explosion problem. In order to alleviate the state space explosion problem, this paper resorts to the use of a particular type of high level (coloured) Petri nets called SWN. A digital control system is considered as a case study, and safety measures have been evaluated, referring to the emergent standard IEC 61508.     

Behavioral Petri nets: a model for diagnostic knowledgerepresentation and reasoning

Some of the most popular approaches to model-based diagnosis consist of reasoning about a model of the behaviour of the system to be diagnosed by considering a set of observations about such a system and by explaining it in terms of a set of initial causes. This process has been widely modeled via logical formalisms essentially taking into account declarative aspects. In this paper, a new approach is proposed, where the diagnostic process is captured within a framework based on the formalism of Petri nets. We introduce a particular net model, called Behavioral Petri Net (BPN), We show how the formalization of the diagnostic process can be obtained in terms of reachability in a BPN and can be implemented by exploiting classical analysis techniques of Petri nets like reachability graph analysis and P-invariant computation. Advantages of the proposed methods, like suitability to parallel processing and exploitation of linear algebra techniques, are then pointed out.     

Diagnosing time-varying misbehavior: an approach based on model decomposition

The analysis of time-varying systems is attracting a lot of attention in the model-based diagnosis community. In this paper we propose an approach to the diagnosis of such systems, relying on a component-oriented model; we provide separately a behavioral model, that is, knowledge about the consequences of differentbehavioral modes of the components, and a model of the possible temporal evolution of such modes (mode transition graphs). In the basic approach, we assume that the consequences of behavioral modes are instantaneous with respect to the transition between two modes; this allows us to decompose the solution of a temporal diagnostic problem into two subtasks: determining solutions of atemporal problems in different time points and assembling the solution of the temporal problem from those of the atemporal ones. Most of the definitions and machinery developed for static diagnosis can be re-used in such a framework. We then consider the consequences of some extensions. Even allowing for very simple temporal relations in the behavioral model leads to a more complex interference between reasoning on the behavioral models and the consistency check with respect to possible temporal evolutions. We also briefly analyze the case of adding quantitative temporal knowledge or probabilistic knowledge to the mode transition graphs.This work was partially supported by CNR under grants 91.00916.PF69 and 91.02351.CT12.     

A dynamic Bayesian network based framework to evaluate cascading effects in a power grid

In recent years, the growing interest toward complex critical infrastructures and their interdependencies have solicited new efforts in the area of modeling and analysis of large interdependent systems. Cascading effects are a typical phenomenon of dependencies of components inside a system or among systems. The present paper deals with the modeling of cascading effects in a power grid. In particular, we propose to model such effects in the form of dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) which can be derived by means of specific rules, from the power grid structure expressed in terms of series and parallel modules. In contrast with the available techniques, DBN offer a good trade-off between the analytical tractability and the representation of the propagation of the cascading event. A case study taken from the literature, is considered as running example.