Genitourinary trauma in the pediatric patient

Trauma is the major source of mortality in the pediatric population. A retrospective review was performed on patients admitted to the Children's Hospital and Health Center Trauma Program, San Diego, California, from August 1984 to May 1990. The purpose of this review was to evaluate pediatric trauma and to determine the best treatment and evaluation for genitourinary injuries. Blunt trauma was responsible for 98 percent of the injuries, with renal injuries being the most common. Bladder (7) and male urethral (2) injuries, and vaginal lacerations (8) also occurred. The most severe renal injuries (70%) and all significant bladder and urethral injuries were associated with gross hematuria. Hypotension was present in 31 percent of patients but rarely required surgical exploration for correction. Eighty-six patients underwent radiographic imaging. Computerized tomography (CT) scans demonstrated the most information about intra-abdominal solid organ injuries but was inaccurate in detecting bladder or urethral injuries. Genitourinary injury is common in children but rarely requires surgical management. CT scan is the best study to determine extent of solid-organ injury but is inferior to cystourethrography to diagnose bladder or urethral injuries.     

Modelling sustainable international tourism demand to the Brazilian Amazon

The Amazon rainforest is one of the world's greatest natural wonders and holds great importance and significance for the world's environmental balance. Around 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states of the Amazon region are Amazonas (the upper Amazon) and Pará (the lower Amazon), which together account for around 73% of the Brazilian Legal Amazon, and are the only states that are serviced by international airports in Brazil's north region. The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast sustainable international tourism demand for the states of Amazonas, Pará, and the aggregate of the two states. By sustainable tourism is meant a distinctive type of tourism that has relatively low environmental and cultural impacts. Economic progress brought about by illegal wood extraction and commercial agriculture has destroyed large areas of the Amazon rainforest. The sustainable tourism industry has the potential to contribute to the economic development of the Amazon region without destroying the rainforest. The paper presents unit root tests for monthly and annual data, estimates alternative time series models and conditional volatility models of the shocks to international tourist arrivals, and provides forecasts for 2006 and 2007.     

An econometric analysis of SARS and Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia

This paper compares the impacts of SARS and human deaths arising from Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia. The effects of SARS and human deaths from Avian Flu are compared directly according to the number of human deaths. The nature of the short run and long run relationship is examined empirically by estimating a static line fixed effect model and a difference transformation dynamic model, respectively. Empirical results from the static fixed effect and difference transformation dynamic models are consistent, and indicate that both the short run and long run SARS effect have a more significant impact on international tourist arrivals than does Avian Flu. In addition, the effects of deaths arising from both SARS and Avian Flu suggest that SARS is more important to international tourist arrivals than is Avian Flu. Thus, while Avian Flu is here to stay, its effect is currently not as significant as that of SARS.     

ARMAX modelling of international tourism demand

Box–Jenkins (1970) models are often used to capture the autoregressive moving average of past observations of tourist arrivals from Japan to Taiwan and New Zealand. However, other explanatory variables, such as real income in the origin country, have also affected the demand for international travel. The purpose of this paper is to use the ARMAX model to investigate the dynamic relationship between tourism demand and real income of Japan, and to compare the findings with the single-equation model. Unit root tests and diagnostics are performed before estimating the income elasticity of travel demand by Japan for New Zealand and Taiwan based on seasonally unadjusted quarterly data for 1980(1) to 2004(2). The empirical results of the ARMAX model support the economic theory that the demand for international travel is positively related to income of the origin country.     

Forecasting conditional correlations in stock,bond and foreign exchange markets

The paper forecasts conditional correlations between three classes of international financial assets, namely stock, bond and foreign exchange. Two countries are considered, namely Australia and New Zealand. Forecasting will be conducted using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the CCC model [T. Bollerslev, Modelling the coherence in short-run nominal exchange rates: a multivariate generalized ARCH model, Rev. Econ. Stat. 72 (1990) 498–505], VARMA-GARCH model [S. Ling, M. McAleer, Asymptotic theory for a vector ARMA-GARCH model, Econometric Theory 19 (2003) 280–310], and VARMA-AGARCH model [M. McAleer, S. Hoti, F. Chan, Structure and asymptotic theory for multivariate asymmetric volatility, Econometric Rev., in press]. A rolling window technique is used to forecast 1-day ahead conditional correlations. To evaluate the impact of model specification on conditional correlations forecasts, this paper calculates and compares the correlations between conditional correlations forecasts resulted from the three models. The paper finds the evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effect of negative and positive shock on the conditional variance in most pairs of series. However, it suggests that incorporating volatility spillovers and asymmetric do not contribute to better conditional correlations forecasts.     

Post-synthetic modification of conjugated microporous polymers

Control over the surface functionality and microporosity in conjugated microporous polymers (CMPs) has been achieved by the post-synthetic modification of amines into amides of with different alkyl chains, one of which was chiral. The surface areas, pore volumes, carbon dioxide uptakes and isosteric heat of adsorption for carbon dioxide can be rationally tuned.     

Mapping the Presidential Election Cycle in US stock markets

This paper shows that in the almost four decades from January 1965 through to December 2003, US stock prices closely followed the 4-year Presidential Election Cycle. In general, stock prices fell during the first half of a Presidency, reached a trough in the second year, rose during the second half of a Presidency, and reached a peak in the third or fourth year. This cyclical trend is found to hold for the greater part of the last ten administrations, starting from President Lyndon Johnson to the administration of President George W. Bush, particularly when the incumbent is a Republican. The empirical results suggest that the Republican Party may have greater cause to engage in active policy manipulation to win re-election than their Democratic counterparts. There is irony in that bullish runs in the stock market have tended to coincide with sub-periods under Democratic administrations. The existence of the Presidential Election Cycle shown in the paper may constitute an anomaly in the US stock market, which could be useful for investors.     

Simulation of the dropping mercury electrode by orthogonal collocation

Orthogonal collocation techniques are used to simulate the solution to the hydrodynamic partial differential equations describing mass transport to a dropping mercury electrode (dme). Accurate values for the concentration profiles and current are obtained with minimal computational effort.     

Trump’s COVID-19 tweets and Dr. Fauci’s emails

Scientometrics - The paper features an analysis of former President Trump’s early tweets on COVID-19 in the context of Dr. Fauci’s recently revealed email trove. The tweets are analysed...