Exploring the future impacts of urbanization and climate change on groundwater in Arusha,Tanzania

ABSTRACT

We combine satellite imagery, urban growth modelling, groundwater modelling and hydrogeological field expeditions to estimate the potential impacts in 2050 of rapid urbanization and climate change on groundwater in Arusha, Tanzania, and by extension similar areas in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our analysis suggests that a reduction of groundwater recharge by 30–44% will cause groundwater levels to drop by up to 75 m, mainly due to increased evapotranspiration and to an expansion in paved surface. If this scenario becomes reality, we predict that wells will run dry, creating health, social and environmental risks.     

Tobacco attributable deaths in South Africa

Background: In mid 1998, a question "Was the deceased a smoker five years ago?" was introduced on the newly revised South African death notification form. Design: A total of 16 230 new death notification forms from 1998 have been coded, and comparison of the prevalence of smoking among those who died of different causes was used to estimate, by case–control comparisons, tobacco attributed mortality in South Africa. Cases comprised deaths from causes known (from other studies) to be causally associated with smoking, and controls comprised deaths from medical conditions expected to be unrelated to smoking. Those who died from external causes, and from diseases strongly related to alcohol consumption, were excluded. Subjects: Reports were available from 5340 deceased adults (age 25+), whose smoking status was given by a family member. Results: Significantly increased risks were found for deaths from tuberculosis (odds ratio (OR) 1.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23 to 2.11), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.9 to 3.4), lung cancer (OR 4.8, 95% CI 2.9 to 8.0), other upper aerodigestive cancer (OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.9 to 4.9) and ischaemic heart disease (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.3). Conclusion: If smokers had the same death rate as non-smokers, 58% of lung cancer deaths, 37% of COPD deaths, 20% of tuberculosis deaths, and 23% of vascular deaths would have been avoided. About 8% of all adult deaths in South Africa (more than 20 000 deaths a year) were caused by smoking.     

Predicted anti-oestrogen resistance in BRCA-associated familial breast cancers

There is controversy concerning the prognosis of breast cancers arising in women carrying loss of function mutations in the breast cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2. This study was carried out to assess the likely hormone dependence of this group of tumours in comparison with an age and grade matched group of control sporadic tumours. We used quantitative immunohistochemical analysis for the oestrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PgR), cyclin D1 and pS2 on sections of primary tumours and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Expression of PgR (P < 0.05) and cyclin D1 (P < 0.01) was low in the BRCA1- and BRCA2-associated cancers compared with sporadic cases. The low frequency of expression of ER (9/40), PgR (2/40) cyclin D1 (5/36) and pS2 (5/36) in the familial tumours indicates that the majority of such tumours will be oestrogen insensitive and unlikely to respond to hormonal manipulation even at the in situ stage in their evolution. The low level of PgR (2/40 cases) suggests that there may be some abnormality of transactivating function of the ER in these tumours.     

Prospective evaluation of criteria for microbiological diagnosis of prosthetic-joint infection at revision arthroplasty. The OSIRIS Collaborative Study Group

A prospective study was performed to establish criteria for the microbiological diagnosis of prosthetic joint infection at elective revision arthroplasty. Patients were treated in a multidisciplinary unit dedicated to the management and study of musculoskeletal infection. Standard multiple samples of periprosthetic tissue were obtained at surgery, Gram stained, and cultured by direct and enrichment methods. With reference to histology as the criterion standard, sensitivities, specificities, and likelihood ratios (LRs) were calculated by using different cutoffs for the diagnosis of infection. We performed revisions on 334 patients over a 17-month period, of whom 297 were evaluable. The remaining 37 were excluded because histology results were unavailable or could not be interpreted due to underlying inflammatory joint disease. There were 41 infections, with only 65% of all samples sent from infected patients being culture positive, suggesting low numbers of bacteria in the samples taken. The isolation of an indistinguishable microorganism from three or more independent specimens was highly predictive of infection (sensitivity, 65%; specificity, 99.6%; LR, 168.6), while Gram staining was less useful (sensitivity, 12%; specificity, 98%; LR, 10). A simple mathematical model was developed to predict the performance of the diagnostic test. We recommend that five or six specimens be sent, that the cutoff for a definite diagnosis of infection be three or more operative specimens that yield an indistinguishable organism, and that because of its low level of sensitivity, Gram staining should be abandoned as a diagnostic tool at elective revision arthroplasty.     

Computer Aided Model for Casting Aluminium Using Die-Casting

Computer aided casting of aluminum using die-casting was developed. A piston, which is an automobile part and very important in internal combination engine, was chosen for the research. Pistons are made of aluminum alloy. Models of the products were developed to aid the casting process. Mathematical models that show the dimensions of the casting were also developed. Since the project is about using computer to aid casting process, a program using visual basic （VB） Language was developed. The program was used to incorporate die-casting process into computer system. The written program was tested and the model of the casting product （piston） was displayed. The result shows that computer which is faster with accurate result can be used as an aid in the production of aluminum piston using die-casting process, for accurate planning in the manufacture of the product.     

Genetic heterogeneity and penetrance analysis of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes in breast cancer families. The Breast Cancer Linkage Consortium

The contribution of BRCA1 and BRCA2 to inherited breast cancer was assessed by linkage and mutation analysis in 237 families, each with at least four cases of breast cancer, collected by the Breast Cancer Linkage Consortium. Families were included without regard to the occurrence of ovarian or other cancers. Overall, disease was linked to BRCA1 in an estimated 52% of families, to BRCA2 in 32% of families, and to neither gene in 16% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6%-28%), suggesting other predisposition genes. The majority (81%) of the breast-ovarian cancer families were due to BRCA1, with most others (14%) due to BRCA2. Conversely, the majority of families with male and female breast cancer were due to BRCA2 (76%). The largest proportion (67%) of families due to other genes was found in families with four or five cases of female breast cancer only. These estimates were not substantially affected either by changing the assumed penetrance model for BRCA1 or by including or excluding BRCA1 mutation data. Among those families with disease due to BRCA1 that were tested by one of the standard screening methods, mutations were detected in the coding sequence or splice sites in an estimated 63% (95% CI 51%-77%). The estimated sensitivity was identical for direct sequencing and other techniques. The penetrance of BRCA2 was estimated by maximizing the LOD score in BRCA2-mutation families, over all possible penetrance functions. The estimated cumulative risk of breast cancer reached 28% (95% CI 9%-44%) by age 50 years and 84% (95% CI 43%-95%) by age 70 years. The corresponding ovarian cancer risks were 0.4% (95% CI 0%-1%) by age 50 years and 27% (95% CI 0%-47%) by age 70 years. The lifetime risk of breast cancer appears similar to the risk in BRCA1 carriers, but there was some suggestion of a lower risk in BRCA2 carriers <50 years of age.