Global Water Demand and Supply Projections

Abstract

This paper presents a modeling approach for projections of water demand and supply for domestic, industrial, livestock, and irrigation at the basin or country level in a global scope. Particular emphasis is put on simulating water availability for crops taking into account total renewable water, non-irrigation water demand, water supply infrastructure, and economic and environmental policies at the basin or country level. This paper focuses on concepts and methodology involved in the modeling exercise. Data assessment and results are presented in a companion paper (Rosegrant and Cai, 2002).     

A reconceptualization of adaptive regression.

Contends that the concept of adaptive regression is useful because it emphasizes that regression can be adaptive, but is misleading in suggesting that adaptive regressions are a discrete and unitary set of phenomena. Recently, writers have stated that primary process and creativity are not regressive, but these ideas imply an implausibly sharp break between regressive and adaptive phenomena, and are contradicted by empirical observations. The author notes that regression may be adaptive in a variety of ways: It may be chosen and used for communication or for privately adaptive ends, or it may occur unbidden, but nevertheless, be used for communication or privately adaptive ends. It is suggested that a more meaningful question than "Is regression adaptive or maladaptive," is "How is regression adaptive, maladaptive, or both?" (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Borderline diagnosis in projective assessment.

Reviews 36 publications on projective testing of borderlines to determine the extent to which the disorder can be defined. The data show that although borderlines can be distinguished as a group from neurotics and schizophrenics, the differences are small, and there is considerable overlap among these diagnostic groups. No specific psychological mechanisms have been identified that typify borderlines and are not also found among neurotics, schizophrenics, or both. These findings imply that borderline pathology cannot be exclusively attributed to trauma from any particular period of development and that no specifically focused therapeutic approach is appropriate for most borderlines. Theoretical and technical approaches helpful for borderlines are also helpful for at least some neurotics and psychotics. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Three psychoanalytic realities.

Psychoanalysis works with three views of reality: factual reality, psychic reality, and coconstructed reality. The history of clinical psychoanalytic thinking about trauma demonstrates that these realities are often in conflict with each other and that they have cycled in use without any consensus developing about which is most correct. These three realities have also been used without consensus by the broader mental health field and in the study of myths, indicating that these realities are fundamental ways of understanding ambiguous psychological data. The uncertainty as to which reality is most correct is resolved by recognizing that it is part of the human condition to be constantly differentiating and integrating these realities, and so we best help our patients by engaging with them in the process of applying all three, rather than by making definite static decisions about which is most applicable. This approach is demonstrated with clinical material. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Brief dynamic psychotherapy in community mental health settings: Providing a holding environment on a short-term basis.

Because of funding limitations, Community Mental Health therapists must often apply brief therapy techniques to an inappropriate clientele. Previously developed techniques hasten treatment by means of the therapist actively focusing interpretations on either preoedipal or oedipal issues. An actively focused technique would be inappropriate for most Community Mental Health patients, however, because it would not effectively address their strong dependency needs. Active focusing would not provide the holding environment which is crucial in treating dependent patients. More appropriate is a moderate amount of focusing in the context of tolerant, unfocused listening to provide a holding environment. This approach is illustrated with case examples. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The future role of agriculture in the Arab region’s food security

The 2007–2008 food crisis and subsequent economic recession have severely undermined food security and agricultural sustainability worldwide. Failures in market functioning and trade openness have posed particularly high risks to the import-dependent countries in the Arab region. Many of the global causes of the price spikes are still in place, creating uncertainty about food availability and access in the future. Especially in the Arab region, these uncertainties are compounded by water scarcity. A long-term outlook is essential for formulating appropriate policy and investment strategies in order to ensure future food security for the region. After a brief discussion of trends in agricultural growth and investment, this paper presents projections by the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) on agriculture production, trade, demand, prices, and food security up to 2025 and 2050. Simulations are used to compare a baseline scenario (with climate change) with two scenarios incorporating increased investment and supportive policies. The results highlight the key role of agricultural research, as well as expanded irrigation, improved natural resource management, and enhanced market efficiency, in improving food security. Four priority areas are proposed: investments in agricultural research and development, rural infrastructure, and rural institutions; more open regional and international trade to facilitate commodity flows and alleviate supply shortages; pro-poor food and nutrition interventions; and cross-cutting issues of policy coherence, gender dimensions, inclusion of traditional populations, and coordination mechanisms to deal with climate change and ecosystem challenges.     

Risk and nitrogen use on rainfed rice: Bicol,Philippines

Year to year variability in nitrogen response is widely believed to be responsible for low levels of fertilizer application by risk averse farmers. Certain authors have claimed that production risk is not responsible for sub-optimal applications of fertilizer. Since these studies estimated fertilizer response in irrigated areas or in simulated rainfed areas in experiment stations they may have underestimated the degree of risk faced by the majority of farmers.This study seeks to address this issue of risk under farmers' conditions by using data from rainfed farmers fields in a risky rice growing area of the Philippines.Long term distributions of factors responsible for temporal variability in N-response, such as moisture stress and typhoons, are derived by using a rainfall simulator and a water balance model. These distributions are combined with a hetereoscedastic nitrogen response function to simulate long term yield distributions at different N-rates. The application of risk averse and risk neutral decision making models shows that risk aversion reduces fertilizer application by only 7–9%. These results occur because as N-rates increase, the benefits from increased average profits outweigh the disadvantages of increased variability in profits. These findings provide additional evidence to support the emerging consensus that the impact of risk aversion on fertilizer use is much smaller than previously believed.