Effects of the film thickness and poling electric field on photovoltaic performances of (Pb,La)(Zr,Ti)O3 ferroelectric thin film-based devices

The ferroelectric photovoltaic (FPV) effect obtained in inorganic perovskite ferroelectric materials has received much attention because of its large potential in preparing FPV devices with superior stability, high open-circuit voltage (V_oc) and large short-circuit current density (J_sc). In order to obtain suitable thickness for the ferroelectric thin film as light absorption layer, in which, the sunlight can be fully absorbed and the photo-generated electrons and holes are recombined as few as possible, we prepare Pb_0.93La_0.07(Zr_0.6Ti_0.4)_0.9825O₃ (PLZT) ferroelectric thin films with different layer numbers by the sol-gel method and based on these thin films, obtain FPV devices with FTO/PLZT/Au structure. By measuring photovoltaic properties, it is found that the device with 4 layer-PLZT thin film (~300 nm thickness) exhibits the largest V_oc and J_sc and the photovoltaic effect obviously depends on the value and direction of the poling electric field. When the device is applied a negative poling electric field, both the V_oc and J_sc are significantly higher than those of the device applied the positive poling electric field, due to the depolarization field resulting from the remnant polarization in the same direction with the built-in electric field induced by the Schottky barrier, and the higher the negative poling electric field, the larger the V_oc and J_sc. At a -333 kV/cm poling electric field, the FPV device exhibits the most superior photovoltaic properties with a V_oc of as high as 0.73 V and J_sc of as large as 2.11 μA/cm². This work opens a new way for developing ferroelectric photovoltaic devices with good properties.     

Diffuse color patterning using blended electrochromic polymers for proof‐of‐concept adaptive camouflage plaques

A study using three different pairs of electrochromic polymers (ECPs) synthesized onto plaques by means of a modified vapor phase polymerization (VPP) technique is presented. Restriction of the respective polymerization times, allowed both faster and slower polymerizing monomers to be controlled, and produced blended plaques with visually diffuse interfaces. The ECPs within the blended plaques retain their individual electrochromic behavior and when encapsulated into an electrochromic device, show outstanding optical switching performance with little degradation evident over 10,000 cycles, coupled with a switching time of the order of 1 second. Blends also allow multiple diffuse color changes within an electrochromic device, due to the difference in oxidation potentials of the individual ECPs, making them candidates for adaptive camouflage use. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J. Appl. Polym. Sci. 2015 , 132, 42158.     

基于粒子群优化和支持向量机的花粉浓度预测模型

为了提高花粉浓度预报的准确率，解决现有花粉浓度预报准确率不高的问题，提出了一种基于粒子群优化（PSO）算法和支持向量机（SVM）的花粉浓度预报模型。首先，综合考虑气温、气温日较差、相对湿度、降水量、风力、日照时数等多种气象要素，选择与花粉浓度相关性较强的气象要素构成特征向量；其次，利用特征向量与花粉浓度数据建立SVM预测模型，并使用PSO算法找出最优参数；然后利用最优参数优化花粉浓度预测模型；最后，使用优化后的模型对花粉未来24 h浓度进行预测，并与未优化的SVM、多元线性回归法（MLR）、反向神经网络（BPNN）作对比。此外使用优化后的模型对某市南郊观象台和密云两个站点进行逐日花粉浓度预测。实验结果表明，相比其他预报方法，所提方法能有效提高花粉浓度未来24 h预测精度，并具有较高的泛化能力。     

Backtesting portfolio value-at-risk with estimated portfolio weights

This article theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio value-at-risk (VaR) with estimation risk in an intrinsically multi-variate framework. It particularly takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating portfolio weights and that from estimating the multi-variate dynamic model make the existing methods in a univariate framework inapplicable. It proposes a general theory to quantify estimation risk applicable to the present problem and suggests practitioners a simple but effective way to implement valid inference to overcome the effect of estimation risk in backtesting portfolio VaR. In particular, we apply our theory to the efficient mean-variance-skewness portfolio for a multi-variate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with multi-variate general hyperbolic distributed innovations. Some Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application demonstrate the merits of our method.     

灰色预测模型在油气操作成本预测中的应用

油气操作成本是油气田生产消耗的主要项目，为了有效地控制油气操作成本，必须制定准确的油气操作成本计划。而油气操作成本在我国是最近几年才提出来的，数据项比较少，给油气操作成本预测带来一定的难度。为此，文章根据灰色预测的基本原理，采用灰色系统理论进行油气操作成本预测，就可以弥补对预测所需的数据少，而且也无须剔除不可比因素，只要所建模型能满足精度要求，预测结果就可以信赖。     

油气操作成本预测方法研究

油气操作成本在油气生产中占有较大的比重，油气操作成本的高低直接影响油田开发的经济效益。为了有效地控制油田油气操作成本，根据影响油气操作的因素，将油气操作成本按其影响因素进行分类，对基本运行费和油气处理费采用回归预测的方法，通过对相关数据的收集，建立对应的数学模型进行预测，对其他各项操作成本，采用单位费用和计划工作量进行预测，最后进行汇总，得到油气操作成本，其预测结果可作为油气操作成本计划制订的依据。该方法简单、操作性强，预测效果较好，在油田可以推广使用。     

重复压裂气井产能模拟研究

由于重复压裂气井原有裂缝的失效程度难以评价。导致重复压裂气井的产能预测常常有很大的误差。为此，根据重复压裂气井的压前产量和舍水率，拟合了原有裂缝的有效率，在考虑新裂缝和原有裂缝共同作用的情况下，建立了气、水两相平面二维的裂缝-油藏数学模型，通过对模型的数值求解，对重复压裂气井进行了产能评价。研究表明，在考虑新、老裂缝共同作用下的产能评价方法，能更为准确地预测重复压裂后的生产动态情况，对压裂时机的确定、压后经济效益的预测都具有重要的指导意义。     

我国“十五“电力供需预测分析

分析“十五”期间我国电力需求预测和电力预测中的不确定因素,提出建议采取的措施。     

Nanocrystalline TiO2 photosensitized with natural polymers with enhanced efficiency from 400 to 600 nm

TiO₂ sensitization for solar applications requires not only efficient but also stable and inexpensive sensitizers. Different condensed tannins extracted from bark wastes of tropical wood trees were studied as possible sensitizers of TiO₂. These natural polymers adhere strongly to the TiO₂ even from aqueous solutions. Absorption spectra are presented for 1 mM aqueous sensitizing solutions prepared with lyophilized condensed tannins which absorb light in the visible range. Spectral photocurrent measurements and I–V characterization show that no bias is required for electron injection to the TiO₂ from all studied condensed tannins. Incident photon to current efficiency (IPCE) analysis indicates that surface complexation originates absorption bands with different electron injection efficiencies. These play a dominant role in determining IPCE spectral shape. We propose that surface modification by the sensitizer changes the surface trap density, thereby decreasing recombination losses.