Reliability of complex chemical engineering processes

This paper presents a stochastic performance modelling approach that can be used to optimise design and operational reliability of complex chemical engineering processes. The framework can be applied to processes comprising multiple units, including the cases where closed form process performance functions are unavailable or difficult to derive from first principles, which is often the case in practice. An interface that facilitates automated two-way communication between Matlab^® and process simulation environment is used to generate large process responses. The resulting constrained optimisation problem is solved using both Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and First Order Reliability Method (FORM); providing a wide range of stochastic process performance measures. Adding such capabilities to traditional deterministic process simulators provides a more informed basis for selecting optimum design factors; giving a simple way of enhancing overall process reliability and cost-efficiency. Two case study systems are considered to highlight the applicability and benefits of the approach.     

Precise Extraction of Charge Carrier Mobility for Organic Transistors

Unreliable mobility values, and particularly greatly overestimated values and severely distorted temperature dependences, have recently hampered the development of the organic transistor field. Given that organic field‐effect transistors (OFETs) have been routinely used to evaluate mobility, precise parameter extraction using the electrical properties of OFETs is thus of primary importance. This review examines the origins of the various mobilities that must be determined for OFET applications, the relevant extraction methods, and the data selection limitations, which help in avoiding conceptual errors during mobility extraction. For increased precision, the review also discusses device fabrication considerations, calibration of both the specific gate‐dielectric capacitance and the threshold voltage, the contact effects, and the bias and temperature dependences, which must actually be handled with great care but have mostly been overlooked to date. This review serves as a systematic overview of the OFET mobility extraction process to ensure high precision and will also aid in improving future research.     

无失效数据机载多余度EWIS可靠性研究

针对高可靠度机载多余度EWIS各组成部分寿命服从指数分布但参数未知的情况，提出采用无失效数据可靠度分析方法评估EWIS的可靠度水平。通过Monte-Carlo仿真方法对连接形式为“先并联、后串联”EWIS各组成部分寿命进行抽样，利用“最小最大值”方法获得系统寿命的抽样值，用概率纸检验法初步判断EWIS寿命是否服从威布尔分布，再用Pearson拟合优度检验法判断EWIS寿命是否服从威布尔分布。结合无故障飞行时间的样本值与EWIS寿命服从威布尔分布的假设，采用无失效数据分析方法评估EWIS的可靠度水平。研究方法对机载多余度EWIS无失效数据可靠度分析有一定的贡献。     

Systematic approach for recognizing limiting factors for growth of biomethane use in transportation sector – A case study in Finland

In this paper, limiting factors for increased use of biomethane as a transportation fuel are studied. The aim of this research is to recognize and estimate the limiting factors for biomethane utilization in the transportation sector. The limiting factors are studied by using calculation models from Life cycle perspective and literature reviews. According to the results, the main limiting factors can be classified into the following categories: production potential, technology, economy or policy. For biomethane utilization in Finland, the main limiting factors seem to be the lack of distribution infrastructure in northern parts of the country and the uncertain economical feasibility for agricultural biomass producers and for vehicle owners. From the political perspective, the external costs for petrol operated vehicles are higher than for biomethane operated vehicles. Reductions from the external costs could be used by political decisions as a base to support the growth of biomethane in the transportation sector which could lead to GHG emission reductions. A similar systematic approach can also be used to study limiting factors for other transportation energy systems.     

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles in European countries using integrated modeling

Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered alternatives to internal combustion engines due to their energy efficiency and contribution to CO₂ mitigation. The adoption of EVs depends on consumer preferences, including cost, social status and driving habits, although it is agreed that current and expected costs play a major role. We use a partial equilibrium model that minimizes total energy system costs to assess whether EVs can be a cost-effective option for the consumers of each EU27 member state up to 2050, focusing on the impact of different vehicle investment costs and CO₂ mitigation targets. We found that for an EU-wide greenhouse gas emission reduction cap of 40% and 70% by 2050 vis-à-vis 1990 emissions, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are cost-effective in the EU only by 2030 and only if their costs are 30% lower than currently expected. At the EU level, vehicle costs and the capability to deliver both short- and long-distance mobility are the main drivers of BEV deployment. Other drivers include each state’s national mobility patterns and the cost-effectiveness of alternative mitigation options, both in the transport sector, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) or biofuels, and in other sectors, such as renewable electricity.     

Residual learning rates in lead-acid batteries: Effects on emerging technologies

The low price of lead-acid, the most popular battery, is often used in setting cost targets for emerging energy storage technologies. Future cost reductions in lead acid batteries could increase investment and time scales needed for emerging storage technologies to reach cost-parity. In this paper the first documented model of cost reductions for lead-acid batteries is developed. Regression to a standard experience curve using 1989–2012 data yield a poor fit, with R² values of 0.17 for small batteries and 0.05 for larger systems. To address this problem, battery costs are separated into material and residual costs, and experience curves developed for residual costs. Depending on the year, residual costs account for 41–86% of total battery cost. Using running-time averages to address volatility in material costs, a 4-year time average experience curve for residual costs yield much higher R², 0.78 for small and 0.74 for large lead-acid batteries. The learning rate for residual costs in lead-acid batteries is 20%, a discovery with policy implications. Neglecting to consider cost reductions in lead-acid batteries could result in failure of energy storage start-ups and public policy programs. Generalizing this result, learning in incumbent technologies must be understood to assess the potential of emerging ones.     

积层板的制造方法

概述了积层板的开发背景、制造工艺和最近的开发动向。     

动力环境集中监控系统可靠性的提高

为实现电源设备乃至通信机房的少人或无人值守和集中维护,必须建立一套完善的电信局动力环境集中监控系统。文中结合番禺区电信局的实际,讨论了提高系统运行可靠性的几点措施,包括硬件方面与软件方面的手段,关键在于加强系统的运行管理。     

大坝监测自动化中的人工比测研究

阐述了人工比测的概念、方式和数据分析方法,对人工比测及数据分析中应注意的问题也进行了深入研究。     

Using an integrated process of data and modeling in HRA

The paper describes an approach taken to estimate the probabilities of failure associated with various railroad tasks to prevent accidents (principally collisions and derailments). These probabilities were estimated using an expert elicitation process that used partially relevant data available from a variety of databases and that were filtered and scaled to make them more directly relevant to the analyses being performed. Extensive qualitative studies were performed prior to the elicitation process to identify relevant contexts under which the tasks can be performed.