基于多通道的ICU脑血管疾病死亡风险预测模型

死亡风险预测指根据病人临床体征监测数据来预测未来一段时间的死亡风险。对于ICU病患，通过死亡风险预测可以有针对性地对病人做出临床诊断，以及合理安排有限的医疗资源。基于临床使用的MEWS和Glasgow昏迷评分量表，针对ICU病人临床监测的17项生理参数，提出一种基于多通道的ICU脑血管疾病死亡风险预测模型。引入多通道概念应用于BiLSTM模型，用于突出每个生理参数对死亡风险预测的作用。采用Attention机制用于提高模型预测精度。实验数据来自MIMIC [Ⅲ]数据库，从中提取3?080位脑血管疾病患者的16?260条记录用于此次研究，除了六组超参数实验之外，将所提模型与LSTM、Multichannel-BiLSTM、逻辑回归（logistic regression）和支持向量机（support vector machine, SVM）四种模型进行了对比分析，准确率Accuracy、灵敏度Sensitive、特异性Specificity、AUC-ROC和AUC-PRC作为评价指标，实验结果表明，所提模型性能优于其他模型，AUC值达到94.3%。     

Reliability of complex chemical engineering processes

This paper presents a stochastic performance modelling approach that can be used to optimise design and operational reliability of complex chemical engineering processes. The framework can be applied to processes comprising multiple units, including the cases where closed form process performance functions are unavailable or difficult to derive from first principles, which is often the case in practice. An interface that facilitates automated two-way communication between Matlab^® and process simulation environment is used to generate large process responses. The resulting constrained optimisation problem is solved using both Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and First Order Reliability Method (FORM); providing a wide range of stochastic process performance measures. Adding such capabilities to traditional deterministic process simulators provides a more informed basis for selecting optimum design factors; giving a simple way of enhancing overall process reliability and cost-efficiency. Two case study systems are considered to highlight the applicability and benefits of the approach.     

Precise Extraction of Charge Carrier Mobility for Organic Transistors

Unreliable mobility values, and particularly greatly overestimated values and severely distorted temperature dependences, have recently hampered the development of the organic transistor field. Given that organic field‐effect transistors (OFETs) have been routinely used to evaluate mobility, precise parameter extraction using the electrical properties of OFETs is thus of primary importance. This review examines the origins of the various mobilities that must be determined for OFET applications, the relevant extraction methods, and the data selection limitations, which help in avoiding conceptual errors during mobility extraction. For increased precision, the review also discusses device fabrication considerations, calibration of both the specific gate‐dielectric capacitance and the threshold voltage, the contact effects, and the bias and temperature dependences, which must actually be handled with great care but have mostly been overlooked to date. This review serves as a systematic overview of the OFET mobility extraction process to ensure high precision and will also aid in improving future research.     

无失效数据机载多余度EWIS可靠性研究

针对高可靠度机载多余度EWIS各组成部分寿命服从指数分布但参数未知的情况，提出采用无失效数据可靠度分析方法评估EWIS的可靠度水平。通过Monte-Carlo仿真方法对连接形式为“先并联、后串联”EWIS各组成部分寿命进行抽样，利用“最小最大值”方法获得系统寿命的抽样值，用概率纸检验法初步判断EWIS寿命是否服从威布尔分布，再用Pearson拟合优度检验法判断EWIS寿命是否服从威布尔分布。结合无故障飞行时间的样本值与EWIS寿命服从威布尔分布的假设，采用无失效数据分析方法评估EWIS的可靠度水平。研究方法对机载多余度EWIS无失效数据可靠度分析有一定的贡献。     

Operational time-series data modeling via LSTM network integrating principal component analysis based on human experience

Today’s information technologies involve increasingly intelligent systems, which come at the cost of increasingly complex equipment. Modern monitoring systems collect multi-measuring-point and long-term data which make equipment health prediction a “big data” problem. It is difficult to extract information from such condition monitoring data to accurately estimate or predict health statuses. Deep learning is a powerful tool for big data processing that is widely utilized in image and speech recognition applications, and can also provide effective predictions in industrial processes. This paper proposes the Long Short-term Memory Integrating Principal Component Analysis based on Human Experience (HEPCA-LSTM), which uses operational time-series data for equipment health prognostics. Principal component analysis based on human experience is first conducted to extract condition parameters from the condition monitoring system. The long short-term memory (LSTM) framework is then constructed to predict the target status. Finally, a dynamic update of the prediction model with incoming data is performed at a certain interval to prevent any model misalignment caused by the drifting of relevant variables. The proposed model is validated on a practical case and found to outperform other prediction methods. It utilizes a powerful deep learning analysis method, the LSTM, to fully process big condition monitoring series data; it effectively extracts the features involved with human experience and takes dynamic updates into consideration.     

Deformation-Strength Relationships in Short-Term Tension of Heat-Resistant Materials

The analysis of 124 curves obtained in short-term tensile tests demonstrate that they can be described by varying strain hardening and softening characteristics. Different stress–strain curves can be produced at invariable yield strength and ultimate strength and interrelated proportional variations of the above characteristics. To determine some specific stress–strain curve, it is necessary to take account of yield strength and ultimate strength as well as strain corresponding to the latter. The relations between yield strength, ultimate strength and hardening and their practically complete absence between these parameters and softening were statistically established.     

积层板的制造方法

概述了积层板的开发背景、制造工艺和最近的开发动向。     

动力环境集中监控系统可靠性的提高

为实现电源设备乃至通信机房的少人或无人值守和集中维护,必须建立一套完善的电信局动力环境集中监控系统。文中结合番禺区电信局的实际,讨论了提高系统运行可靠性的几点措施,包括硬件方面与软件方面的手段,关键在于加强系统的运行管理。     

大坝监测自动化中的人工比测研究

阐述了人工比测的概念、方式和数据分析方法,对人工比测及数据分析中应注意的问题也进行了深入研究。     

Using an integrated process of data and modeling in HRA

The paper describes an approach taken to estimate the probabilities of failure associated with various railroad tasks to prevent accidents (principally collisions and derailments). These probabilities were estimated using an expert elicitation process that used partially relevant data available from a variety of databases and that were filtered and scaled to make them more directly relevant to the analyses being performed. Extensive qualitative studies were performed prior to the elicitation process to identify relevant contexts under which the tasks can be performed.