Digital twin-based analysis of volumetric error mapping procedures

The evaluation of the volumetric accuracy of a machine tool is an open challenge in the industry, and a wide variety of technical solutions are available in the market and at research level. All solutions have advantages and disadvantages concerning which errors can be measured, the achievable uncertainty, the ease of implementation, possibility of machine integration and automation, the equipment cost and the machine occupation time, and it is not always straightforward which option to choose for each application. The need to ensure accuracy during the whole lifetime of the machine and the availability of monitoring systems developed following the Industry 4.0 trend are pushing the development of measurement systems that can be integrated in the machine to perform semi-automatic verification procedures that can be performed frequently by the machine user to monitor the condition of the machine. Calibrated artefact based calibration and verification solutions have an advantage in this field over laser based solutions in terms of cost and feasibility of machine integration, but they need to be optimized for each machine and customer requirements to achieve the required calibration uncertainty and minimize machine occupation time.This paper introduces a digital twin-based methodology to simulate all relevant effects in an artefact-based machine tool calibration procedure, from the machine itself with its expected error ranges, to the artefact geometry and uncertainty, artefact positions in the workspace, probe uncertainty, compensation model, etc. By parameterizing all relevant variables in the design of the calibration procedure, this simulation methodology can be used to analyse the effect of each design variable on the error mapping uncertainty, which is of great help in adapting the procedure to each specific machine and user requirements. The simulation methodology and the analysis possibilities are illustrated by applying it on a 3-axis milling machine tool.     

An economic investigation of the wind-hydrogen projects: A case study

Hydrogen as an energy carrier can play a significant role in reducing environmental emissions if it is produced from renewable energy resources. This research aims to assess hydrogen production from wind energy considering environmental, economic, and technical aspect for the East Azerbaijan province of Iran. The economic assessment is performed by calculation of payback period, levelized cost of hydrogen, and levelized cost of electricity. Since uncertainty in the power output of wind turbines may affect the payback period, all calculations are performed for four different turbine degradation rates. While it is common in the literature to choose the wind turbine based on a single criterion, this study implements Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) techniques for this purpose. The results of Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis illustrates that economic issue is the most important criterion for this research. The results of Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment shows that Vestas V52 is the most suitable wind turbine for Ahar and Sarab cities, while Eovent EVA120 H-Darrieus is a better choice for other stations. The most suitable location for wind power generation is found to be Ahar, where it is estimated to annually generate 2914.8 kWh of electricity at the price of 0.045 $/kWh, and 47.2 tons of hydrogen at the price of 1.38 $/kg, which result in 583 tons of CO₂ emission reduction.     

Integral barrier Lyapunov function-based adaptive fuzzy output feedback control for nonlinear delayed systems with time-varying full-state constraints

In this article, an adaptive fuzzy output feedback control method is presented for nonlinear time-delay systems with time-varying full state constraints and input saturation. To overcome the problem of time-varying constraints, the integral barrier Lyapunov functions (IBLFs) integrating with dynamic surface control (DSC) are applied for the first time to keep the state from violating constraints. The effects of unknown time delays can be removed by using designed Lyapunov-Krasovskii functions (LKFs). An auxiliary design system is introduced to solve the problem of input saturation. The unknown nonlinear functions are approximated by the fuzzy logic systems (FLS), and the unmeasured states are estimated by a designed fuzzy observer. The novel controller can guarantee that all signals remain semiglobally uniformly ultimately bounded and satisfactory tracking performance is achieved. Finally, two simulation examples illustrate the effectiveness of the presented control methods.     

Stochastic free vibration analyses of composite shallow doubly curved shells – A Kriging model approach

This paper presents the Kriging model approach for stochastic free vibration analysis of composite shallow doubly curved shells. The finite element formulation is carried out considering rotary inertia and transverse shear deformation based on Mindlin’s theory. The stochastic natural frequencies are expressed in terms of Kriging surrogate models. The influence of random variation of different input parameters on the output natural frequencies is addressed. The sampling size and computational cost is reduced by employing the present method compared to direct Monte Carlo simulation. The convergence studies and error analysis are carried out to ensure the accuracy of present approach. The stochastic mode shapes and frequency response function are also depicted for a typical laminate configuration. Statistical analysis is presented to illustrate the results using Kriging model and its performance.     

A GIS plug-in for Bayesian belief networks: Towards a transparent software framework to assess and visualise uncertainties in ecosystem service mapping

The complexity and spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem processes driving ecosystem service delivery require spatially explicit models that take into account the different parameters affecting those processes. Current attempts to model ecosystem service delivery on a broad, regional scale often depend on indicator-based approaches that are generally not able to fully capture the complexity of ecosystem processes. Moreover, they do not allow quantification of uncertainty on their predictions. In this paper, we discuss a QGIS plug-in which promotes the use of Bayesian belief networks for regional modelling and mapping of ecosystem service delivery and associated uncertainties. Different types of specific Bayesian belief network output maps, delivered by the plug-in, are discussed and their decision support capacities are evaluated. This plug-in, used in combination with firmly developed Bayesian belief networks, has the potential to add value to current spatial ecosystem service accounting methods. The plug-in can also be used in other research domains dealing with spatial data and uncertainty.     

Generation expansion planning in electricity markets: A novel framework based on dynamic stochastic MPEC

This paper presents a novel framework for generation expansion planning (GEP) of restructured power systems under uncertainty in a multi-period horizon, which includes generation investment from a price maker perspective. The investment problem is modeled as a bi-level optimization problem. The first level problem includes decisions related to investment in order to maximize total profit in the planning horizon. The second level problem consists of maximizing social welfare where the power market is cleared. Rival uncertainties on offering and investment are modeled using sets of scenarios. The bi-level optimization problem is then converted to a dynamic stochastic MPEC and represented as a mixed integer linear program (MILP) after linearization. The proposed framework is examined on a typical six-bus power network, MAZANDARAN regional electric company (MREC) transmission network as an area of IRAN interconnected power system and IEEE RTS 24-bus network. Simulation results confirm that the proposed framework can be a useful tool for analyzing the behavior of investments in electricity markets.     

Reliability of complex chemical engineering processes

This paper presents a stochastic performance modelling approach that can be used to optimise design and operational reliability of complex chemical engineering processes. The framework can be applied to processes comprising multiple units, including the cases where closed form process performance functions are unavailable or difficult to derive from first principles, which is often the case in practice. An interface that facilitates automated two-way communication between Matlab^® and process simulation environment is used to generate large process responses. The resulting constrained optimisation problem is solved using both Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and First Order Reliability Method (FORM); providing a wide range of stochastic process performance measures. Adding such capabilities to traditional deterministic process simulators provides a more informed basis for selecting optimum design factors; giving a simple way of enhancing overall process reliability and cost-efficiency. Two case study systems are considered to highlight the applicability and benefits of the approach.     

Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium)

Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM_(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals.     

Adaptive actuator failure compensation design for unknown chaotic multi‐input systems

In this paper, an adaptive control approach is designed for compensating the faults in the actuators of chaotic systems and maintaining the acceptable system stability. We propose a state‐feedback model reference adaptive control scheme for unknown chaotic multi‐input systems. Only the dimensions of the chaotic systems are required to be known. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, new adaptive control laws are synthesized to accommodate actuator failures and system nonlinearities. An illustrative example is studied. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the design method. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.