A stochastic model for localized disturbances and its applications

A stochastic model for local disturbances, particularly for a temporal harmonic with random modulations in amplitude and/or phase, is proposed in this paper. Results for the second moment responses of a linear single-degree-of-freedom system to this type of stochastic loading demonstrate a significant change in response characteristics due to a small uncertainty. A local phenomenon may last much longer and resonance may be smeared to a broad range. Integrated with wavelet transform, the proposed approach may be used to model a random process with non-stationary frequency content. Especially, it can be effectively used for Monte Carlo simulation to generate large size of samples that have similar characteristics in time and frequency domains as a pre-selected mother sample has. The technique has a great potential for the case where uncertainty study is warranted but the available samples are limited.     

珠江三角洲土坝和堤围震害初步预测

本项预测采用概率方法,即首先根据广东省水利部门提出的55座土坝和59个重点的座标(见附图),进行概率地震危险性分析,给出它们在一定预测年限T(取50年和100年)的地震烈度Ⅰ的超越概率;其次根据近年我国发生的几次强震时处于不同烈度区内的土坝和堤防的震害资料,形成表示土坝和土堤地震易损性的震害概率矩阵;然后,根据上述两方面结果用概率公式评价各土坝和堤围点在预测年限内各震害等级的超越概率,并取10％超越概率为标准,估计震害等级。结果表明,珠江三角洲土工构筑物的地震危害性南部高于北部。     

Simulation by Slepian method of plastic displacements of Gaussian process excited multistory shear frame

The object of study is a stationary Gaussian white noise excited multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) linear elastic, ideal plastic, linearly damped, statically determinate oscillator with several potential elements of ideal plastic yielding. Specifically the study is exemplified for a plane multistory shear frame with rigid traverses where all the connecting columns except the columns in one or more of the bottom floors have finite symmetrical yield limits. The white noise excitation acts on the mass of the first floor making the movement of the elastic bottom floors simulate a ground motion that interacts with the structure above the bottom floors. The method of study is so-called Slepian model simulation and is in principle the same for other statically determinate MDOF elasto-plastic oscillators of the considered type. The method is fast as compared to direct simulation and provides results that give good insight in the behavior of the plastic displacement response process.     

Seismic safety of lifelines—an optimum design method

Lifeline systems are vulnerable to two types of hazards arising from potential earthquake sources. These are the hazard of a fault-rupture strike on elements of a lifeline system and the hazard of overstress induced in different elements of the system because of the ground vibration. An optimum design method is presented in this paper for the design of a lifeline system for a maximum accepted probability of failure because of any of the two modes of failure. The method may be used to determine an optimum path between a number of fixed points which represent supply or demand stations in the system.     

江苏省地震前方指挥车应急数据信息通信方式的实现

前方指挥车是在有地震灾害事件发生时,能够立即响应,并快速到达地震震中所在地,立即开展现场信息汇集与共享、地震灾情动态评估和修正、辅助决策建议及时生成、现场资源调度和管理,实现前方指挥部与现场工作人员、国家指挥部、区域指挥部的不同应用系统之间的数据信息的共享和传递.本文主要介绍前方指挥车两种不同应急通信方式,并讨论各自的优缺点.     

安县晓坝镇震后新建场址主要岩土工程问题及对策

安县晓坝镇处于＂5.12＂汶川大地震极重灾区,受灾严重,不具备重建条件,需选址重建。在野外详细调查的基础上,通过现场勘查和室内试验,深入研究了晓坝镇灾后新建场址的主要岩土工程问题。研究表明,新建场址主要土层为粉质粘土和淤泥质土,属高压缩性软弱土;地下水埋深浅,对基础施工和地基土承载力影响大;建筑场地类别Ⅱ类,属抗震不利地段。提出了深层水泥土搅拌法和换填地基两种软基处理方案,以及加强地基基础抗震设计等措施。     

汶川地震中上海高层建筑动力反应分析

对同济大学强震监测台在汶川地震中测得的地震记录进行频谱特性分析,以同济大学教学科研综合楼为研究对象,应用通用有限元软件建立计算模型,分析了该结构在这一实测地震记录作用下的响应特点,并将其与调幅后的El Centro波、Taft波和上海人工波作用下的计算结果进行了对比分析,同时探讨了远震对深覆盖场地上高层建筑的影响。结果表明：尽管汶川地震同济波的峰值加速度很小,但是2～3．5s的长周期分量卓越性却十分突出,共振效应造成长周期的高层建筑地震反应明显。     

地震触发崩塌滑坡自组织临界性研究

汶川地震触发了大量崩塌滑坡灾害.这些规模差异巨大的现象之间,能量及空间是否存在着确定的分布规律?巨型崩滑和小规模坍塌是否遵从不同的形成机理?这些都是亟待解决的基本科学问题.作者在自组织临界状态(SOC)的概念框架下,通过震区典型路段考察,发现位于地震Ⅸ度区的崩滑工点,崩滑方量及崩滑体深度,与崩滑工点数目之间存在着良好的负幂律关系,地震Ⅹ度区也体现出有类似特征;拟静力模拟地震的沙堆离心模型实验表明,模型底板倾斜1.5°时,崩塌的动力学特性可以用幂律描述,底板倾斜达到3°时服从正态分布;元胞自动机模型数值模拟表明,随扰动强度增加沙堆模型动力学特性的演变是渐进的.从而从整体理论上对上述问题提出新的解释:处于青壮年期的山地斜坡系统具有SOC的内禀基本属性;存在一个地震强度阈值,在此之下地震触发的崩滑规模与出现频率之间的分布规律可用幂律描述,巨型崩滑灾害和小规模坍塌现象遵从同一形成机理.全新的认识可望为地震触发崩塌滑坡灾势评估提供普适性的概型并建立应用框架.     

汶川地震区震后泥石流活动特征与防治对策

2008年5月12日的汶川Ms8.0地震对地表产生强烈扰动,使得泥石流形成条件发生剧烈变化,影响到震后泥石流的活动特征和减灾对策.作者在调查数据的基础上,从固体松散物质条件、微地貌条件和水文条件的变化3个方面,分析了汶川地震区震后泥石流形成条件的变化,认为:汶川地震灾区崩塌、滑坡等产生的松散固体物质达28×108 m3,为该区泥石流长期活动提供了丰富的物质基础;流域微地貌突变特别是严重的沟道堵塞,有利于泥石流规模的增大;强烈地表扰动和毁灭性、大面积毁坏植被,改变了地表水入渗、产流和汇流条件,利于侵蚀和洪峰形成.这些流域状态的巨变,构成了有利于泥石流形成的条件组合.从而,导敛震后泥石流活动强度急剧增大,使得泥石流成为对地震区影响最为严重的灾害.震后泥石流活动的主要特点有:泥石流沟谷数量增加,大量震前被判定为非泥石流沟的流域暴发了泥石流;激发泥右流的临界雨量明显降低泥石流暴发表现出明显的高频性与群发性;泥石流的容重约提高10%～30%,原来定性为稀性或过渡性的泥石流沟转化为过渡性或粘性泥石流沟;泥石流流量普遍增大,大致可增加约50%～100%,现有规范中泥石流流量计算方法的结果偏小,需要修正.震后泥石流演变趋势为:活动强度由急剧增强的突变转为逐步减弱,期间活跃期与平静期交替出现,第1个泥石流活跃期可能会持续约15年左右;泥石流形成将由降雨控制型逐步转为松散土体控制型;一些松散土体丰富且尚未发生泥石流的面积大于5 km2流域,将是未来暴发大规模泥石流的风险源.针对震后泥石流的活动特征、演化趋势和震区泥石流防治中存在的问题,提出:判识潜在泥石流灾害,增强减灾措施的针对性;进行泥石流灾害风险分析,加强风险管理;改进泥石流规模计算方法,适应震区超常规模泥石流防治需求;重新确定泥石流预警报的临界雨量指标,加强监测预警系统建设等灾害防治对策.     

Emergency aero-photo survey after the 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake,China

After the 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake which took place on May 12, 2008, aerial remote sensing has rapidly covered all the influence sites of the earthquake, emergency aero-photo interpretation has revealed the disaster distribution limitation, and captured the information of location, dimension of the destroyed houses, roads and other structures, blocked rivers, etc, which provided destroying conditions of the time for rescuing lives, rebuilding traffic lines and estimating disaster situation. The further interpretation and analysis indicate that large scale second growth geological disasters mainly distribute in the distance of 0–300 km and 45°–50° orientation from the epicenter. About 137 latent large-scale landslides and debris-flows will occur in this rain season and coming several years, so how to avoid current geological disasters as well as the latent large disasters should be considered in making rebuilding and developing plan.