Modeling time criticality of information

In this paper, we continue the research on formal treatment of attributes of information, based on the computational approach. In this scenario, the usefulness of advisory information is measured by the decrease in complexity of a problem we need to solve. We propose to model the time criticality via usefulness of a piece of information which is received during the computation. As a modeling tool, we use deterministic finite automata.     

地震触发崩塌滑坡自组织临界性研究

汶川地震触发了大量崩塌滑坡灾害.这些规模差异巨大的现象之间,能量及空间是否存在着确定的分布规律?巨型崩滑和小规模坍塌是否遵从不同的形成机理?这些都是亟待解决的基本科学问题.作者在自组织临界状态(SOC)的概念框架下,通过震区典型路段考察,发现位于地震Ⅸ度区的崩滑工点,崩滑方量及崩滑体深度,与崩滑工点数目之间存在着良好的负幂律关系,地震Ⅹ度区也体现出有类似特征;拟静力模拟地震的沙堆离心模型实验表明,模型底板倾斜1.5°时,崩塌的动力学特性可以用幂律描述,底板倾斜达到3°时服从正态分布;元胞自动机模型数值模拟表明,随扰动强度增加沙堆模型动力学特性的演变是渐进的.从而从整体理论上对上述问题提出新的解释:处于青壮年期的山地斜坡系统具有SOC的内禀基本属性;存在一个地震强度阈值,在此之下地震触发的崩滑规模与出现频率之间的分布规律可用幂律描述,巨型崩滑灾害和小规模坍塌现象遵从同一形成机理.全新的认识可望为地震触发崩塌滑坡灾势评估提供普适性的概型并建立应用框架.     

Criticality Analysis for Maintenance Purposes: A Study for Complex In‐service Engineering Assets

The purpose of this paper is to establish a basis for a criticality analysis, considered here as a prerequisite, a first required step to review the current maintenance programs, of complex in‐service engineering assets. Review is understood as a reality check, a testing of whether the current maintenance activities are well aligned to actual business objectives and needs. This paper describes an efficient and rational working process and a model resulting in a hierarchy of assets, based on risk analysis and cost–benefit principles, which will be ranked according to their importance for the business to meet specific goals. Starting from a multicriteria analysis, the proposed model converts relevant criteria impacting equipment criticality into a single score presenting the criticality level. Although detailed implementation of techniques like Root Cause Failure Analysis and Reliability Centered Maintenance will be recommended for further optimization of the maintenance activities, the reasons why criticality analysis deserves the attention of engineers and maintenance and reliability managers are precisely explained here. A case study is presented to help the reader understand the process and to operationalize the model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

复杂生态系统的系统特性

将人为因子从生态系统的生物因子中剥离后，基于其主观能动性和反馈机制，论述了复杂生态系统呈现出的远离平衡态的耗散结构和自组织临界性两个特性。     

Criticality and Environmental Uncertainty in Step-Level Public Goods Dilemmas.

The author examined a public goods (PG) dilemma with environmental uncertainty in a sequential protocol of play paradigm. Using a 5-person game, Experiment 1 examined provision point (PP) uncertainty and found that a certain PP requiring 3 contributors produced the PG more frequently than an uncertain PP of the same expectation that varied uniformly among 2, 3, and 4 contributors. Fixing PP at 3, Experiment 2 showed that PG provision rate was higher with a certain group size of 5 persons than an uncertain group size of the same expectation that varied uniformly among 4, 5. and 6 persons. Further analyses showed that a fear of wasting one's contribution and pessimistic beliefs of environmental uncertainty could have undermined contribution. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

铀富集厂容器取料过程中的核临界安全计算

介绍了在中国核工业集团公司兰州铀浓缩厂的核燃料生产中，针对某容器取料过程中存在的核临界安全问题，采用蒙特卡罗方法KENOⅥ程序进行的计算。通过计算表明，某容器在取料过程中，在保护杯起作用的情况下，是可以保证临界安全的，从而解决了该厂核燃料生产中，某容器取料过程的核临界安全问题。     

基于连续潮流模型的电网自组织临界性的探讨

建立了一个基于连续潮流电网连锁故障模型,通过引入了一个切负荷控制模块,有效的选择切负荷点、切负荷量,模拟仿真了电网大停电事故的发生过程。结果表明:该模型不但能更有效地揭示电网大停电事故机理中自组织临界性,而且可以有效地防止大停电事故的发生,降低大停电发生的风险。     

电力系统不是自组织临界性系统

从自组织临界性理论的提出以及存在的问题出发,从电力系统的运行状态、所承受的扰动、仿真模型等方面全面阐述了电力系统连锁故障不是一种自组织临界性现象。自组织临界性理论只是一种统计学理论,这种统计学理论不能全面解释电力系统灾变的发生机制。要深入分析电力系统灾变的发生机制,必须研究复杂系统的动力学演化理论。     

计及恶劣天气因素的复杂电网连锁故障事故链模型

恶劣天气条件下电网各元件发生故障的机率明显增加,加大了电网恶性事故发生的概率。通过电网自组织临界态的演化与事故链各环节发展的对比,指出事故链可以作为表征电网自组织临界态进程的有效工具。在传统电网事故链模型基础之上,基于自组织临界理论,建立计及恶劣天气因素的复杂电网连锁故障事故链模型及其仿真算法,以事故链的形式仿真电网自临界状态演化进程中潜在的连锁故障传播途径,为运行方式制订人员甄别恶劣天气下电网危险环节提供重要依据。对河南电网的实例分析,证明了所提出模型的有效性和可行性。     

Modeling project criticality in IT project portfolios

Today's IT project portfolios (ITPP) contain many projects and varied interdependencies. Depending on a project's criticality to the ITPP, a failure can have massive consequences. However, existing methods usually only assess overall project portfolio risk and do not account for the criticality of single projects and their dependencies. Applying Bayesian network modeling to ITPPs, we bridge this gap and extend the current body of knowledge for the information systems and project management literatures. Our new method analyzes single projects' criticality in a portfolio context by considering both transitive dependencies and different dependency types in an integrated way. Since we demonstrate that single projects' criticality can vary substantially, being aware of which projects are critical is a key success factor for ITPP management. For practitioners, our method provides a straightforward procedure to enhance ITPP risk management.