A bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) for stock price prediction: Case study of DAX stock price

Creating an intelligent system that can accurately predict stock price in a robust way has always been a subject of great interest for many investors and financial analysts. Predicting future trends of financial markets is more remarkable these days especially after the recent global financial crisis. So traders who access to a powerful engine for extracting helpful information throw raw data can meet the success. In this paper we propose a new intelligent model in a multi-agent framework called bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) to predict stock price. The model performs in a four layer multi-agent framework to predict eight years of DAX stock price in quarterly periods. The capability of BNNMAS is evaluated by applying both on fundamental and technical DAX stock price data and comparing the outcomes with the results of other methods such as genetic algorithm neural network (GANN) and some standard models like generalized regression neural network (GRNN), etc. The model tested for predicting DAX stock price a period of time that global financial crisis was faced to economics. The results show that BNNMAS significantly performs accurate and reliable, so it can be considered as a suitable tool for predicting stock price specially in a long term periods.     

Micro- and macroergonomic changes in mental workload and medication safety following the implementation of new health IT

Health information technology (IT) is a promising way to achieve safer medication management in the delivery of healthcare. However, human factors/ergonomics dictates that in order to make the complex, cognitive work of healthcare delivery safer, health IT must properly support human cognition. This means, for example, that new health IT must reduce, not increase, workload during safety-critical tasks. The present study was the first to quantitatively assess the short- and long-term impact of bar coded medication administration (BCMA) IT on nurses' mental workload as well as on perceived medication safety. One-hundred seventy registered nurses across 3 dissimilar clinical units at an academic, freestanding pediatric hospital in the Midwest US participated in surveys administered before, 3 months after, and 12 months after the hospital implemented BCMA. Nurses rated their external mental workload (interruptions, divided attention, being rushed) and internal mental workload (concentration, mental effort) during medication administration tasks as well as the likelihood of each of three medication safety events: medication administration errors, medication errors on the clinical unit, and clinical unit-level adverse drug events. Clinical unit differences were assessed. Findings generally confirmed the hypothesis that external but not internal mental workload was associated with the perceived likelihood of a medication safety event. Comparisons of mental workload from pre- to post-BCMA revealed statistically significant changes in the critical care unit only. Medication safety appeared to improve over the long term in the hematology/oncology unit only. In the critical care and medical/surgical units, medication safety exhibited short-term improvements that were eliminated over time. Changes in mental workload and medication safety, two classically microergonomic constructs, were deeply embedded in macroergonomic phenomena. These included the fit between the BCMA system and the nature of nursing work, the process of BCMA implementation, and BCMA interactions with concurrent changes occurring in the hospital. Findings raise questions about achieving sustainable performance improvement with health IT as well as the balance between micro- and macroergonomic approaches to studying technology change.Relevance to industryDesigners must consider how technology changes cognitive work, including mental workload. Hospitals and other implementers of technology must ensure that new technology fits its users, their tasks, and the context of use, which may entail tailoring implementation, for example, to specific clinical units. Evaluators must look over time to assess both changes in cognitive work and implementation issues. Healthcare practitioners must also recognize that new technology means a complex transformation to an already complex sociotechnical system, which calls for a macroergonomic approach to design and analysis.     

我国上市公司股票评级研究——财务结构模型分析法在股票市场中的应用

目前,我国股票市场上的股票评级尚处于探索阶段,评级时多采用专家法或历史法,而对于影响股票评级的各因素的确定以及因素间的相互作用缺乏定量分析。研究将结构模型应用到我国股票市场的股票评级中,建立关于我国股票评级的财务结构模型;分析各个因素对股票评级的影响;建立股票评级经验模式值。     

自喷井电动清蜡绞车的研制

针对目前石油钻采用清蜡绞车总体结构设计不合理以及实用性不强等技术难题,研制开发了自喷井电动清蜡绞车。该绞车的核心部件包括过载保护安全装置、牙嵌离合器轴套、自动/手动互换装置、计量装置以及密封装置。在清蜡绞车自动工作中,当清蜡刮刀遇到较大阻力时,清蜡绞车将接收到反馈信号,可实现智能停车,自动转换为手动状态,以便操作人员检查和排除故障,从而确保了操作的安全性,延长了设备的使用寿命。1000余台电动清蜡绞车的现场应用表明,该产品可以大大降低原油的开采成本,具有良好的经济效益和社会效益。     

用快切装置替代备自投装置提高厂用电安全可靠性

指出目前厂用电切换装置存在的不足，分析了快切装置的基本原理以及厂用电事故下的成功快切对电厂安全生产的意义，说明了在厂用电切换中尽快应用快切装置的必要性。     

Occupational airway diseases in the metalworking industry Part 1: Respiratory infections, pneumonia, chronic bronchitis and emphysema

Occupational airway diseases are now receiving attention in industry, although study is hampered by a lack of readily-available data. The interpretation of the data that is available, and also of the root problems themselves, is itself a difficult problem. This paper has been written as a literature review which it is hoped that other researchers can take either as a starting point or as a refresher.     

Spare parts inventory management with demand lead times and rationing

We study an inventory system that consists of two demand classes. The orders in the first class need to be satisfied immediately, whereas the orders in the second class are to be filled in a given demand lead time. The two classes are also of different criticality. For this system, we propose a policy that rations the non-critical orders. Under a one-for-one replenishment policy with backordering and for Poisson demand arrivals for both classes, we first derive expressions for the service levels of both classes. The service level for the critical class is an approximation, whereas the service level for the non-critical class is exact. We then conduct a computational study to show that our approximation works reasonably, the benefits of rationing can be substantial, and the incorporation of demand lead time provides more value when the demand class with demand lead time is the critical class. The research is motivated by the spare parts service system of a major capital equipment manufacturer that faces two types of demand. For this company, the critical down orders need to be satisfied immediately, while the less critical maintenance orders can be satisfied after a fixed demand lead time. We conduct a case study with 64 representative parts and show that significant savings (as much as 14% on inventory on hand) are possible through incorporation of demand lead times and rationing.     

靳善忠副省长在全省煤炭工业工作会议上的讲话(节选)

煤炭作为山西经济发展的支柱产业，在实现全面建设小康社会的奋斗目标过程中，要做出突出贡献，任务非常艰巨，要实现这一奋斗目标，2003年要努力做好6个方面的工作，在新型煤炭工业化道路上迈出更大步伐。     

催化裂化汽油选择性加氢脱硫催化剂RSDS-1的开发

介绍了用于催化裂化汽油选择性加氢脱硫催化剂RSDS-1的研究开发，考察了载体、活性组元、金属原子比以及助剂对催化剂选择性的影响。研究结果表明，催化裂化汽油中烯烃的加氢饱和受扩散限制；Co—Mo组合对烯烃饱和的能力相对较弱；较高的Co／Mo原子比有利于提高催化剂选择性；助剂的加入对催化剂选择性有明显的影响；RSDS—1催化剂用于催化裂化汽油选择性脱硫，对不同原料油适应性好，脱硫率可达80％，RON损失小于2个单位，且可长周期稳定运转。     

大朝山水电站地下洞室安全监测资料分析

大朝山水电站引水发电系统为地下工程，根据各项安全监测物理量的主要观测成果，对最大观测值分析其对工程的安全影响，为保证其安全运行具有重要意义。为此，分别对大朝山水电站的主要地下建筑物，包括压力引水隧洞、地下厂房、尾水调压室的最大观测值进行了分析研究，并提出了一些建议，有较大的参考价值。