天然气产业链下游市场风险评价模型探讨

随着我国天然气主干管网的逐步形成，天然气产业链下游市场正在进入快速成长阶段，建立风险预警系统的重要性开始显现，而风险评价模型是其基础工作之一。文章在天然气产业链下游区域市场风险评价指标体系的基础上，综合运用层次分析法和灰色系统理论，建立了对天然气产业链下游区域市场风险评价的模型，并以各区域市场的用气量占全国总用气量的比重为权重，建立起完整的市场风险评价模型，可为评价天然气产业链下游市场整体市场风险时参考。     

一个基于PE分层技术的电子政务网络平台

电子政务网络建设的主要目标就是建立一个开放的、基于标准的统一网络平台，并在该平台上实现政府不同部门之间的信息交换和资源共享，同时保证各部门信息的独立和安全。通过介绍电子政务网络建设中的主流技术——MPLSVPN，提出了一种基于该技术原理的PE分层技术，详细讨论了基于该分层技术的电子政务网络平台的实现过程和主要技术，并对其性能参数进行了测试与分析。     

灰色关联分析法在油气管道半定量风险评价中的应用

肯特(W．kent Muhlbauer)管道风险评价法是一种半定量风险评价法,但是该方法在我国还处在起步阶段,其理论基础和应用技术都很不完善。为了有效处理评分中存在的主观性和不确定性因素,已经把模糊综合评判法引入到管道风险评价中。但是,传统的相对风险值计算还不够准确,为此介绍了灰色关联分析在油气管道半定量风险评价中的应用。通过对影响管道风险的评价指标(因素)体系的综合分析,确定了灰色综合评价的层次结构模型。构建了由第三方破坏指数、腐蚀指数、设计指数、错误指数、介质危险指数5大指标体系构成的管道系统风险综合评价指标体系,并采用层次分析与专家打分相结合的方法计算权重。在油气管道半定量风险评价中应用灰色关联分析法,可以使评价结果更准确。     

Child Death From Pediatric Illness: Conceptualizing Intervention From a Family/Systems and Public Health Perspective.

Despite the universal and understandable distress associated with the death of a child from pediatric illness, do psychologists help surviving families in ways that match their need for assistance? Many families do not seek psychological help and cope adaptively with their loss. Indications for psychotherapy with bereaved families are based largely on experience with families who engage in treatment and who have greater distress. Other families may not receive sufficient services but are at risk for ongoing difficulties and unlikely to engage in treatment. Suggestions for intervention are made, with attention to the fit of therapeutic approaches with family needs. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Factors influencing feature usage in work-related communication

Two studies are presented. The first aimed to identify possible barriers to the uptake and use of commonly available telephony features and to determine whether greater knowledge of features/access codes and availability of user manuals could increase feature usage under certain conditions. Results showed that feature-usage patterns were not affected by any of the manipulations, but that they were determined by specific job demands. Using Constantine and Lockwood's (1999) conceptualization of user roles, a method to support feature bundling decisions for specific target markets was developed and tested in the second study. The method - Strategic User Needs Analysis (SUNA) - was shown to yield a useful balance between high- and low-level information about selected roles. SUNA provided sufficient information to distinguish between PDA feature usage patterns of two similar target user groups as well as to suggest additional features each of the two target groups would find useful. The development of SUNA and observational findings of actual PDA usage are reported.     

Exceptions that prove the rule--Using a theory of motivated social cognition to account for ideological incongruities and political anomalies: Reply to Greenberg and Jonas (2003).

A meta-analysis by J. T. Jost, J. Glaser, A. W. Kruglanski, and F. J. Sulloway (2003) concluded that political conservatism is partially motivated by the management of uncertainty and threat. In this reply to J. Greenberg and E. Jonas (2003), conceptual issues are clarified, numerous political anomalies are explained, and alleged counterexamples are incorporated with a dynamic model that takes into account differences between "young" and "old" movements. Studies directly pitting the rigidity-of-the-right hypothesis against the ideological extremity hypothesis demonstrate strong support for the former. Medium to large effect sizes describe relations between political conservatism and dogmatism and intolerance of ambiguity; lack of openness to experience; uncertainty avoidance; personal needs for order, structure, and closure; fear of death; and system threat. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

水文相似度及其应用

本文分别从流域下垫面、河网发育情况、产汇流影响因素的角度，探索性的提出了几个水文相似性评定指标，并采用层次分析法计算每种水文相似性指标在计算水文相似程度中的权重。以江西雨量站网密度实验区中的朗口和银山流域为研究对象，实例计算了两个流域的水文相似程度，结果证明水文相似度有助于定量化研究水文相似性问题。     

An evaluation system of the setting up of predictive maintenance programmes

Predictive Maintenance can provide an increase in safety, quality and availability in industrial plants. However, the setting up of a Predictive Maintenance Programme is a strategic decision that until now has lacked analysis of questions related to its setting up, management and control. In this paper, an evaluation system is proposed that carries out the decision making in relation to the feasibility of the setting up. The evaluation system uses a combination of tools belonging to operational research such as: Analytic Hierarchy Process, decision rules and Bayesian tools. This system is a help tool available to the managers of Predictive Maintenance Programmes which can both increase the number of Predictive Maintenance Programmes set up and avoid the failure of these programmes. The Evaluation System has been tested in a petrochemical plant and in a food industry.