Mass flow rate sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in natural circulation boiling water reactor core from Monte Carlo simulations

Our aim was to evaluate the sensitivity and uncertainty of mass flow rate in the core on the performance of natural circulation boiling water reactor (NCBWR). This analysis was carried out through Monte Carlo simulations of sizes up to 40,000, and the size, i.e., repetition of 25,000 was considered as valid for routine applications. A simplified boiling water reactor (SBWR) was used as an application example of Monte Carlo method. The numerical code to simulate the SBWR performance considers a one-dimensional thermo-hydraulics model along with non-equilibrium thermodynamics and non-homogeneous flow approximation, one-dimensional fuel rod heat transfer. The neutron processes were simulated with a point reactor kinetics model with six groups of delayed neutrons. The sensitivity was evaluated in terms of 99% confidence intervals of the mean to understand the range of mean values that may represent the entire statistical population of performance variables. The regression analysis with mass flow rate as the predictor variable showed statistically valid linear correlations for both neutron flux and fuel temperature and quadratic relationship for the void fraction. No statistically valid correlation was observed for the total heat flux as a function of the mass flow rate although heat flux at individual nodes was positively correlated with this variable. These correlations are useful for the study, analysis and design of any NCBWR. The uncertainties were propagated as follows: for 10% change in the mass flow rate in the core, the responses for neutron power, total heat flux, average fuel temperature and average void fraction changed by 8.74%, 7.77%, 2.74% and 0.58%, respectively.     

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