Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium)

Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM_(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals.     

Formulation of sage essential oil (Salvia officinalis,L.) monoterpenes into chitosan hydrogels and permeation study with GC-MS analysis

This study deals with the formulation of natural drugs into hydrogels. For the first time, compounds from the sage essential oil were formulated into chitosan hydrogels. A sample preparation procedure for hydrophobic volatile analytes present in a hydrophilic water matrix along with an analytical method based on the gas chromatography coupled with the mass spectrometry (GC-MS) was developed and applied for the evaluation of the identity and quantity of essential oil components in the hydrogels and saline samples. The experimental results revealed that the chitosan hydrogels are suitable for the formulation of sage essential oil. The monoterpene release can be effectively controlled by both chitosan and caffeine concentration in the hydrogels. Permeation experiment, based on a hydrogel with the optimized composition [3.5% (w/w) sage essential oil, 2.0% (w/w) caffeine, 2.5% (w/w) chitosan and 0.1% (w/w) Tween-80] in donor compartment, saline solution in acceptor compartment, and semi-permeable cellophane membrane, demonstrated the useful permeation selectivity. Here, (according to lipophilicity) an enhanced permeation of the bicyclic monoterpenes with antiflogistic and antiseptic properties (eucalyptol, camphor and borneol) and, at the same time, suppressed permeation of toxic thujone (not exceeding its permitted applicable concentration) was observed. These properties highlight the pharmaceutical importance of the developed chitosan hydrogel formulating sage essential oil in the dermal applications.     

综放高瓦斯矿井煤层瓦斯涌出量综合预测

为了成功预测竹林山煤矿综放高瓦斯矿井大采高工作面煤层瓦斯涌出量,以主采3号煤层为主要研究对象,针对3号煤层以往开采情况,通过布设测点测量其煤层瓦斯含量和了解相邻矿井瓦斯含量,采用分源预测法、回归法及统计法等预测方法得到了3号煤层瓦斯含量的分布规律,并绘制了3号煤层的瓦斯含量等值线图。对矿井不同生产时期的瓦斯含量进行预测,得到了生产前期、中期及后期采区的最大绝对瓦斯涌出量和最大相对瓦斯涌出量,说明了竹林山煤矿各个时期均属于高瓦斯矿井。     

A bi-layer optimization approach for a hybrid flow shop scheduling problem involving controllable processing times in the steelmaking industry

A steelmaking-continuous casting (SCC) scheduling problem is an example of complex hybrid flow shop scheduling problem (HFSSP) with a strong industrial background. This paper investigates the SCC scheduling problem that involves controllable processing times (CPT) with multiple objectives concerning the total waiting time, earliness/tardiness and adjusting cost. The SCC scheduling problem with CPT is seldom discussed in the existing literature. This study is motivated by the practical situation of a large integrated steel company in which the just-in-time (JIT) and cost-cutting production strategy have become a significant concern. To address this complex HFSSP, the scheduling problem is decomposed into two subproblems: a parallel machine scheduling problem (PMSP) in the last stage and an HFSSP in the upstream stages. First, a hybrid differential evolution (HDE) algorithm combined with a variable neighborhood decomposition search (VNDS) is proposed for the former subproblem. Second, an iterative backward list scheduling (IBLS) algorithm is presented to solve the latter subproblem. The effectiveness of this bi-layer optimization approach is verified by computational experiments on well-designed and real-world scheduling instances. This study provides a new perspective on modeling and solving practical SCC scheduling problems.     

Improving the prediction of petroleum reservoir characterization with a stacked generalization ensemble model of support vector machines

The ensemble learning paradigm has proved to be relevant to solving most challenging industrial problems. Despite its successful application especially in the Bioinformatics, the petroleum industry has not benefited enough from the promises of this machine learning technology. The petroleum industry, with its persistent quest for high-performance predictive models, is in great need of this new learning methodology. A marginal improvement in the prediction indices of petroleum reservoir properties could have huge positive impact on the success of exploration, drilling and the overall reservoir management portfolio. Support vector machines (SVM) is one of the promising machine learning tools that have performed excellently well in most prediction problems. However, its performance is a function of the prudent choice of its tuning parameters most especially the regularization parameter, C. Reports have shown that this parameter has significant impact on the performance of SVM. Understandably, no specific value has been recommended for it. This paper proposes a stacked generalization ensemble model of SVM that incorporates different expert opinions on the optimal values of this parameter in the prediction of porosity and permeability of petroleum reservoirs using datasets from diverse geological formations. The performance of the proposed SVM ensemble was compared to that of conventional SVM technique, another SVM implemented with the bagging method, and Random Forest technique. The results showed that the proposed ensemble model, in most cases, outperformed the others with the highest correlation coefficient, and the lowest mean and absolute errors. The study indicated that there is a great potential for ensemble learning in petroleum reservoir characterization to improve the accuracy of reservoir properties predictions for more successful explorations and increased production of petroleum resources. The results also confirmed that ensemble models perform better than the conventional SVM implementation.     

Prediction of methane adsorption content in continental coal-bearing shale reservoir using SLD model

Shale gas, as an important unconventional resource, has drawn global attention. It is mainly composed of adsorption gas and free gas. Adsorption gas content could play an important guiding role on both the selection of favorable perspective area and the exploration and exploitation of shale gas resources. In order to accurately measure adsorption gas content, a new approach was established to predict the adsorption isotherm of methane on shale. Based on the simplified local-density (SLD) method, both the adsorption isotherms of illite, illite/smectite mixed-layer, cholorite and type III kerogen and the total shale rock could be well fitted. The fitting results show good coincidences with the true experimental test data, which proves the method is reasonable and dependable and the prediction results are effective and credible. In addition, the good simulation results show that the SLD parameters can reflect the pore structure characteristics and corresponding adsorption characteristics of the shale samples, which can be used for the quantitative characterization of shale pore system.     

Natural Gas Production

Current data on natural gas production, as well as a breakdown of production by country. Updated on a monthly basis.     

Occurrence and distribution of dibenzofurans and benzo[b]naphthofurans in the crude oils from the Northern and offshore Niger Delta basin,Nigeria

The occurrence and distributions of dibenzofurans (DBFs) and benzo[b]naphthofurans were investigated in crude oils from Niger Delta, Nigeria, by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry-mass spectrometry. The distribution of DBFs was characterized by the predominance of C₂-dibenzofurans. 4-Methyldibenzofuran was the most abundant among the methyldibenzofurans isomers while dimethyldibenzofuran-2 (DMDBF-2), ethyldibenzofuran-1, DMDBF-3, and DMDBF-6 occurred in higher amounts when compared with other DMDBFs. Among the benzonaphthofurans, the abundance of benzo[b]naphtho[2,1-d]furan was higher than other isomers. The DBFs distributions in the oils were not affected by source facies and depositional environments. However, the DBFs concentrations increased with increasing maturity in oils from ADL and MJO oilfields.     

Methodology for optimization of pouring variables using bottom pour for low masses of SS304 (<300 kg) in investment casting process (case study)

Bottom pour ladles with stopper rod systems are commonly used in the metal casting industry. However, stopper rod bottom-pouring systems have not yet been developed for the lower thermal masses of alloys typically used in the investment casting industry. Large thermal masses used with bottom pour systems are typically limited for ladles larger than 700 kg and to certain alloys with higher fluidity and longer solidification time like cast iron, aluminum alloys etc. In this study, bottom pour ladle designs and low thermal mass refractory systems have been developed and evaluated in production investment foundry trials with 300 kg pouring ladle. The ladles system and pouring practices used will be described along with the results from the pouring trials for SS304 that represents typical alloys used in Investment casting industries. Optimization of the variables used in an experimentation using Genetic algorithm is also explained.     

Process and joint quality of ultrasonic vibration enhanced friction stir lap welding

In order to improve the process effectiveness and joint quality, ultrasonic vibrations were integrated with friction stir lap welding. Effect of ultrasonic exertion on the process and joint quality of AA 6061-T6 were investigated. Upon ultrasonic exertion, joints owned larger effective lap width, shorter hooks and improved strength. Weld fracture mode changed from a ductile–brittle mixed mode to a more ductile mode while the fracture path shifted from lap interface to beyond the stir zone. Material flow and interface defects were characterised using lap welded dissimilar aluminium alloy joints. Ultrasonic vibration improved the material flow and reduced the interfacial defects. Variations in failure load of joints were found in accordance with the variations in material flow and interfacial defects.