25%小偏置碰撞策略及测试评估研究

随着汽车事故的增加,且小重叠碰撞事故死亡率居高不下,小偏置碰撞试验逐渐成为焦点。基于IIHS公布的最新车辆碰撞试验结果,统计超过100余款不同类型的25%小偏置碰撞车辆,建立碰撞转角与碰撞区域的数学模型,将25%小偏置碰撞归结为三种不同的碰撞策略,分别是吸能策略、掠过策略和掠过与吸能策略;并进行试验验证,对三种策略的优缺点进行分析。结果表明,小偏置碰撞试验可运用合理的碰撞策略达到法规要求,对25%小偏置碰撞试验具有一定的参考价值。     

Effects of parallelogram-shaped pavement markings on vehicle speed and safety of pedestrian crosswalks on urban roads in China

The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of parallelogram-shaped pavement markings on vehicle speed and crashes in the vicinity of urban pedestrian crosswalks. The research team measured speed data at twelve sites, and crash data at eleven sites. Observational cross-sectional studies were conducted to identify if the effects of parallelogram-shaped pavement markings on vehicle speeds and speed violations were statistically significant. The results showed that parallelogram-shaped pavement markings significantly reduced vehicle speeds and speed violations in the vicinity of pedestrian crosswalks. More specifically, the speed reduction effects varied from 1.89 km/h to 4.41 km/h with an average of 3.79 km/h. The reduction in the 85th percentile speed varied from 0.81 km/h to 5.34 km/h with an average of 4.19 km/h. Odds ratios (OR) showed that the parallelogram-shaped pavement markings had effects of a 7.1% reduction in the mean speed and a 6.9% reduction in the 85th percentile speed at the pedestrian crosswalks. The reduction of proportion of drivers exceeding the speed limit varied from 8.64% to 14.15% with an average of 11.03%. The results of the crash data analysis suggested that the use of parallelogram-shaped pavement markings reduced both the frequency and severity of crashes at pedestrian crosswalks. The parallelogram-shaped pavement markings had a significant effect on reducing the vehicle–pedestrian crashes. Two crash prediction models were developed for vehicle–pedestrian crashes and rear-end crashes. According to the crash models, the presence of parallelogram-shaped pavement markings reduced vehicle–pedestrian crashes at pedestrian crosswalks by 24.87% with a 95% confidence interval of [10.06–30.78%]. However, the model results also showed that the presence of parallelogram-shaped pavement markings increased rear-end crashes at pedestrian crosswalks by 5.4% with a 95% confidence interval of [0–11.2%].     

The renaming problem in shared memory systems: An introduction

Exploring the power of shared memory communication objects and models, and the limits of distributed computability are among the most exciting research areas of distributed computing. In that spirit, this paper focuses on a problem that has received considerable interest since its introduction in 1987, namely the renaming problem. It was the first non-trivial problem known to be solvable in an asynchronous distributed system despite process failures. Many algorithms for renaming and variants of renaming have been proposed, and sophisticated lower bounds have been proved, that have been a source of new ideas of general interest to distributed computing. It has consequently acquired a paradigm status in distributed fault-tolerant computing.In the renaming problem, processes start with unique initial names taken from a large name space, then deciding new names such that no two processes decide the same new name and the new names are from a name space that is as small as possible.This paper presents an introduction to the renaming problem in shared memory systems, for non-expert readers. It describes both algorithms and lower bounds. Also, it discusses strong connections relating renaming and other important distributed problems such as set agreement and symmetry breaking.     

Adaptive broadcast by fault-tolerant spanning tree switching

Adaptation is a desirable requirement in a distributed system as it helps the system to perform efficiently under different environments. For many problems, more than one protocol exists, such that one protocol performs better in one environment while the other performs better in another. In such cases, adaptive distributed systems can be designed by dynamically switching between the protocols as the environment changes. Distributed protocol switching is also important for performance enhancement, or fault-tolerance of a distributed system. In this work, we illustrate distributed protocol switching by providing a distributed algorithm for adaptive broadcast that dynamically switches from a BFS tree to a DFS tree. The proposed switching algorithm can also handle arbitrary crash failures. It ensures that switching eventually terminates in spite of failures and the desired tree (DFS tree) results as the output. We also investigate the properties that can be guaranteed on the delivery of broadcast messages under specific failure conditions. We show that under no failure, each broadcast message is eventually correctly delivered to all the nodes in spite of switching. Under arbitrary crash fault, we ensure that switching eventually terminates with the desired tree as the broadcast topology. We also investigate the specific delivery guarantees that can be provided when a single crash fault happens, both during switching and when no switching is in progress.     

Robust gossiping with an application to consensus

We study deterministic gossiping in synchronous systems with dynamic crash failures. Each processor is initialized with an input value called rumor. In the standard gossip problem, the goal of every processor is to learn all the rumors. When processors may crash, then this goal needs to be revised, since it is possible, at a point in an execution, that certain rumors are known only to processors that have already crashed. We define gossiping to be completed, for a system with crashes, when every processor knows either the rumor of processor v or that v has already crashed, for any processor v. We design gossiping algorithms that are efficient with respect to both time and communication. Let t<n be the number of failures, where n is the number of processors. If , then one of our algorithms completes gossiping in O(log²t) time and with O(npolylogn) messages. We develop an algorithm that performs gossiping with O(n^1.77) messages and in O(log²n) time, in any execution in which at least one processor remains non-faulty. We show a trade-off between time and communication in gossiping algorithms: if the number of messages is at most O(npolylogn), then the time has to be at least . By way of application, we show that if n−t=Ω(n), then consensus can be solved in O(t) time and with O(nlog²t) messages.     

电厂#5机DCS系统频繁死机问题处理与防治

萍乡发电厂#705机组DCS系统系2004年大修中DCS系统及DEH一体化改造完毕，运行情况比较好，但在今年5月下旬至6月上旬期间频繁死机，下面就我厂解决这一问题的过程与同类型系统交流。     

Evaluation of the predictability of real-time crash risk models

The primary objective of the present study was to investigate the predictability of crash risk models that were developed using high-resolution real-time traffic data. More specifically the present study sought answers to the following questions: (a) how to evaluate the predictability of a real-time crash risk model; and (b) how to improve the predictability of a real-time crash risk model. The predictability is defined as the crash probability given the crash precursor identified by the crash risk model. An equation was derived based on the Bayes’ theorem for estimating approximately the predictability of crash risk models. The estimated predictability was then used to quantitatively evaluate the effects of the threshold of crash precursors, the matched and unmatched case-control design, and the control-to-case ratio on the predictability of crash risk models. It was found that: (a) the predictability of a crash risk model can be measured as the product of prior crash probability and the ratio between sensitivity and false alarm rate; (b) there is a trade-off between the predictability and sensitivity of a real-time crash risk model; (c) for a given level of sensitivity, the predictability of the crash risk model that is developed using the unmatched case-controlled sample is always better than that of the model developed using the matched case-controlled sample; and (d) when the control-to-case ratio is beyond 4:1, the increase in control-to-case ratio does not lead to clear improvements in predictability.     

How would increasing seat belt use affect the number of killed or seriously injured light vehicle occupants?

The expected effects of increasing seat belt use on the number of killed or seriously injured (KSI) light vehicle occupants have been estimated for three scenarios of increased seat belt use in Norway, taking into account current seat belt use, the effects of seat belts and differences in crash risk between belted and unbelted drivers. The effects of seat belts on fatality and injury risk were investigated in a meta-analysis that is based on 24 studies from 2000 or later. The results indicate that seat belts reduce both fatal and non-fatal injuries by 60% among front seat occupants and by 44% among rear seat occupants. Both results are statistically significant. Seat belt use among rear seat occupants was additionally found to about halve fatality risk among belted front seat occupants in a meta-analysis that is based on six studies. Based on an analysis of seat belt wearing rates among crash involved and non-crash involved drivers in Norway it is estimated that unbelted drivers have 8.3 times the fatal crash risk and 5.2 times the serious injury crash risk of belted drivers. The large differences in crash risk are likely to be due to other risk factors that are common among unbelted drivers such as drunk driving and speeding. Without taking into account differences in crash risk between belted and unbelted drivers, the estimated effects of increasing seat belt use are likely to be biased. When differences in crash risk are taken into account, it is estimated that the annual numbers of KSI front seat occupants in light vehicles in Norway could be reduced by 11.3% if all vehicles had seat belt reminders (assumed seat belt wearing rate 98.9%), by 17.5% if all light vehicles had seat belt interlocks (assumed seat belt wearing rate 99.7%) and by 19.9% if all front seat occupants of light vehicles were belted. Currently 96.6% of all (non-crash involved) front seat occupants are belted. The effect on KSI per percentage increase of seat belt use increases with increasing initial levels of seat belt use. Had all rear seat occupants been belted, the number of KSI front seat occupants could additionally be reduced by about 0.6%. The reduction of the number of KSI rear seat occupants would be about the same in terms of numbers of prevented KSI.     

Assessment of driver stopping prediction models before and after the onset of yellow using two driving simulator datasets

Accurate modeling of driver decisions in dilemma zones (DZ), where drivers are not sure whether to stop or go at the onset of yellow, can be used to increase safety at signalized intersections. This study utilized data obtained from two different driving simulator studies (VT-SCORES and NADS datasets) to investigate the possibility of developing accurate driver-decision prediction/classification models in DZ. Canonical discriminant analysis was used to construct the prediction models, and two timeframes were considered. The first timeframe used data collected during green immediately before the onset of yellow, and the second timeframe used data collected during the first three seconds after the onset of yellow. Signal protection algorithms could use the results of the prediction model during the first timeframe to decide the best time for ending the green signal, and could use the results of the prediction model during the first three seconds of yellow to extend the clearance interval. It was found that the discriminant model using data collected during the first three seconds of yellow was the most accurate, at 99% accuracy. It was also found that data collection should focus on variables that are related to speed, acceleration, time, and distance to intersection, as opposed to secondary variables, such as pavement conditions, since secondary variables did not significantly change the accuracy of the prediction models. The results reveal a promising possibility for incorporating the developed models in traffic-signal controllers to improve DZ-protection strategies.     

Crash risk analysis for Shanghai urban expressways: A Bayesian semi-parametric modeling approach

Urban expressway systems have been developed rapidly in recent years in China; it has become one key part of the city roadway networks as carrying large traffic volume and providing high traveling speed. Along with the increase of traffic volume, traffic safety has become a major issue for Chinese urban expressways due to the frequent crash occurrence and the non-recurrent congestions caused by them. For the purpose of unveiling crash occurrence mechanisms and further developing Active Traffic Management (ATM) control strategies to improve traffic safety, this study developed disaggregate crash risk analysis models with loop detector traffic data and historical crash data. Bayesian random effects logistic regression models were utilized as it can account for the unobserved heterogeneity among crashes. However, previous crash risk analysis studies formulated random effects distributions in a parametric approach, which assigned them to follow normal distributions. Due to the limited information known about random effects distributions, subjective parametric setting may be incorrect. In order to construct more flexible and robust random effects to capture the unobserved heterogeneity, Bayesian semi-parametric inference technique was introduced to crash risk analysis in this study. Models with both inference techniques were developed for total crashes; semi-parametric models were proved to provide substantial better model goodness-of-fit, while the two models shared consistent coefficient estimations. Later on, Bayesian semi-parametric random effects logistic regression models were developed for weekday peak hour crashes, weekday non-peak hour crashes, and weekend non-peak hour crashes to investigate different crash occurrence scenarios. Significant factors that affect crash risk have been revealed and crash mechanisms have been concluded.