Analysis of adhesively bonded CFRE composite scarf joints modified with MWCNTs

The main objective of the present work is to improve the performance of bonded joints in carbon fiber composite structures through introducing Multi-Walled Carbon Nanotubes (MWCNTs) into Epocast 50-A1/946 epoxy, which was primarily developed for joining and repairing of composite aircraft structures. Results from tension characterizations of structural adhesive joints (SAJs) with different scarf angles (5–45°) showed improvement up to 40% compared to neat epoxy (NE)–SAJs. Special attention was considered to investigate the performance of SAJs with 5° scarf angle under different environments. The tensile strength and stiffness of both NE-SAJs and MWCNT/E-SAJs were dramatically decreased at elevated temperature. Water absorption showed a marginal drop of about 2.0% in the tensile strength of the moist SAJs compared to the dry one. Cracks initiation and propagation were detected effectively using instrumented-SAJs with eight strain gauges. The experimental results agree well with the predicted using three-dimensional finite element analysis model.     

Stochastic free vibration analyses of composite shallow doubly curved shells – A Kriging model approach

This paper presents the Kriging model approach for stochastic free vibration analysis of composite shallow doubly curved shells. The finite element formulation is carried out considering rotary inertia and transverse shear deformation based on Mindlin’s theory. The stochastic natural frequencies are expressed in terms of Kriging surrogate models. The influence of random variation of different input parameters on the output natural frequencies is addressed. The sampling size and computational cost is reduced by employing the present method compared to direct Monte Carlo simulation. The convergence studies and error analysis are carried out to ensure the accuracy of present approach. The stochastic mode shapes and frequency response function are also depicted for a typical laminate configuration. Statistical analysis is presented to illustrate the results using Kriging model and its performance.     

A GIS plug-in for Bayesian belief networks: Towards a transparent software framework to assess and visualise uncertainties in ecosystem service mapping

The complexity and spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem processes driving ecosystem service delivery require spatially explicit models that take into account the different parameters affecting those processes. Current attempts to model ecosystem service delivery on a broad, regional scale often depend on indicator-based approaches that are generally not able to fully capture the complexity of ecosystem processes. Moreover, they do not allow quantification of uncertainty on their predictions. In this paper, we discuss a QGIS plug-in which promotes the use of Bayesian belief networks for regional modelling and mapping of ecosystem service delivery and associated uncertainties. Different types of specific Bayesian belief network output maps, delivered by the plug-in, are discussed and their decision support capacities are evaluated. This plug-in, used in combination with firmly developed Bayesian belief networks, has the potential to add value to current spatial ecosystem service accounting methods. The plug-in can also be used in other research domains dealing with spatial data and uncertainty.     

Prediction of sediment,particulate nutrient and dissolved nutrient concentrations in a dry tropical river to provide input to a mechanistic coastal water quality model

A Generalised Additive Modelling (GAM) approach is applied to prediction of both particulate and dissolved nutrient concentrations in a wet-tropical river (the Fitzroy River, Queensland, Australia). In addition to covariant terms considered in previous work (i.e. flow, discounted flow and a rising-falling limb term), we considered several new potential covariates: meteorological and hydrological variables that are routinely monitored, available in near-real time, and were considered to have potential predictive power. Of the additional terms considered, only flows from three tributaries of the Fitzroy River (namely, the Nogoa, Comet and Isaac Rivers) were found to significantly improve the model. Inclusion of one or more of these additional flow terms greatly improved results for dissolved nitrogen and dissolved phosphorus concentrations, which were not otherwise amenable to prediction. In particular, the Nogoa sub-catchment, dominated by pasture for cattle, was found to be important in determining dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations reaching the river mouth. This insight may direct further research, including future refinement of processed-based catchment models. The GAMs described here are used to provide near real-time river boundary conditions for a complex coupled hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model of the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon, and can be coupled with a forecasting hydrological model to allow integrated forecasting simulations of the catchment to coast system.     

A case-deletion diagnostic for penalized calibration estimators and BLUP under linear mixed models in survey sampling

The penalized calibration technique in survey sampling combines usual calibration and soft calibration by introducing a penalty term. Certain relevant estimates in survey sampling can be considered as penalized calibration estimates obtained as particular cases from an optimization problem with a common basic structure. In this framework, a case deletion diagnostic is proposed for a class of penalized calibration estimators including both design-based and model-based estimators. The diagnostic compares finite population parameter estimates and can be calculated from quantities related to the full data set. The resulting diagnostic is a function of the residual and leverage, as other diagnostics in regression models, and of the calibration weight, a singular feature in survey sampling. Moreover, a particular case, which includes the basic unit level model for small area estimation, is considered. Both a real and an artificial example are included to illustrate the diagnostic proposed. The results obtained clearly show that the proposed diagnostic depends on the calibration and soft-calibration variables, on the penalization term, as well as on the parameter to estimate.     

Design criterion for fatigue strengthening of riveted beams in a 120-year-old railway metallic bridge using pre-stressed CFRP plates

This study presents a design criterion developed for fatigue strengthening of a 120-year-old metallic railway bridge in Switzerland and presents a pre-stressed un-bonded reinforcement (PUR) system developed to apply the strengthening. The PUR system uses carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) plates; however, unlike conventional pre-stressed CFRP reinforcement methods, preparation of the existing metallic bridge surface is not required. This decreases the time required for on-site strengthening procedures. The principle of the constant life diagram (CLD) and two fatigue failure criteria (Johnson and Goodman) are described. Analytical formulations are developed based on the CLD method to determine the minimum CFRP pre-stress level required to prevent fatigue crack initiation. The PUR system uses an applied pre-stress force to reduce the mean stress level (and stress ratio) to shift an existing fatigue-susceptible metallic detail from the ‘at risk’ finite life regime to the ‘safe’ infinite life regime. The applied CLD method is particularly valuable when the stress history of the detail is not known and it is difficult to assess the remaining fatigue life. Moreover, it is shown that the currently adopted approach in many structural codes which emphasizes stress range as the dominant parameter influencing fatigue life are non-conservative for tension–tension stress patterns (i.e., stress ratios of 0 < R < 1). Analyses show that the modified Johnson formula accurately reflects the combined effect of stress range, mean stress level, and material properties, and offers a relatively easy design procedure. Details of a retrofit field application on members of a riveted wrought iron railway bridge are given. A wireless sensor network (WSN) system is used for long-term monitoring of the on-site CFRP stress levels and temperature of the retrofitted details. WSN measurements indicate that increases in ambient temperature result in increased CFRP pre-stress levels.     

The control of sea lice in Atlantic salmon by selective breeding

Sea lice threaten the welfare of farmed Atlantic salmon and the sustainability of fish farming across the world. Chemical treatments are the major method of control but drug resistance means that alternatives are urgently needed. Selective breeding can be a cheap and effective alternative. Here, we combine experimental trials and diagnostics to provide a practical protocol for quantifying resistance to sea lice. We then combined quantitative genetics with epidemiological modelling to make the first prediction of the response to selection, quantified in terms of reduced need for chemical treatments. We infected over 1400 young fish with Lepeophtheirus salmonis, the most important species in the Northern Hemisphere. Mechanisms of resistance were expressed early in infection. Consequently, the number of lice per fish and the ranking of families were very similar at 7 and 17 days post infection, providing a stable window for assessing susceptibility to infection. The heritability of lice numbers within this time window was moderately high at 0.3, confirming that selective breeding is viable. We combined an epidemiological model of sea lice infection and control on a salmon farm with genetic variation in susceptibility among individuals. We simulated 10 generations of selective breeding and examined the frequency of treatments needed to control infection. Our model predicted that substantially fewer chemical treatments are needed to control lice outbreaks in selected populations and chemical treatment could be unnecessary after 10 generations of selection. Selective breeding for sea lice resistance should reduce the impact of sea lice on fish health and thus substantially improve the sustainability of Atlantic salmon production.     

Nonlinear response in glass fibre non-crimp fabric reinforced vinylester composites

This paper addresses the nonlinear stress-strain response in glass fibre non-crimp fabric reinforced vinylester composite laminates subjected to in-plane tensile loading. The nonlinearity is shown to be a combination of brittle and plastic failure. It is argued that the shift from plastic to brittle behaviour in the vinylester is caused by the state of stress triaxiality caused by the interaction between fibre and vinylester. A model combining damage and plasticity is calibrated and evaluated using data from extensive experimental testing. The onset of damage is predicted using the Puck failure criterion, and the evolution of damage is calibrated from the observed softening in plies loaded in transverse tension. Shear loading beyond linear elastic response is observed to result in irreversible strains. A yield criterion is implemented for shear deformation. A strain hardening law is fitted to the stress-strain response observed in shear loaded plies. Experimental results from a selection of laminates with different layups are used to verify the numerical models. A complete set of model parameters for predicting elastic behaviour, strength and post failure softening is presented for glass fibre non-crimped fabric reinforced vinylester. The predicted behaviour from using these model parameters are shown to be in good agreement with experimental results.     

Modelling dislocation assisted tempering during rolling contact fatigue in bearing steels

Rolling contact fatigue in bearing steels is manifested by dark-etching regions, which are attributed to deformation induced tempering. In order to quantitatively explain this phenomenon, a model is suggested for martensite tempering assisted by dislocation glide during rolling contact fatigue. In the model, dislocations transport carbon from the matrix to carbide particles, provided that the carbon is located at a certain distance range from the dislocation contributing to the tempering process. By calculating the amount of carbon in the matrix, the kinetics of carbide thickening and hardness reduction are computed. It is found that the dark-etching region kinetics can be controlled by both bearing operation conditions (temperature and deformation rate) and microstructure (type, size, and volume fraction of carbides). The model is validated against tested bearings, and its limitations are discussed.