基于多通道的ICU脑血管疾病死亡风险预测模型

死亡风险预测指根据病人临床体征监测数据来预测未来一段时间的死亡风险。对于ICU病患，通过死亡风险预测可以有针对性地对病人做出临床诊断，以及合理安排有限的医疗资源。基于临床使用的MEWS和Glasgow昏迷评分量表，针对ICU病人临床监测的17项生理参数，提出一种基于多通道的ICU脑血管疾病死亡风险预测模型。引入多通道概念应用于BiLSTM模型，用于突出每个生理参数对死亡风险预测的作用。采用Attention机制用于提高模型预测精度。实验数据来自MIMIC [Ⅲ]数据库，从中提取3?080位脑血管疾病患者的16?260条记录用于此次研究，除了六组超参数实验之外，将所提模型与LSTM、Multichannel-BiLSTM、逻辑回归（logistic regression）和支持向量机（support vector machine, SVM）四种模型进行了对比分析，准确率Accuracy、灵敏度Sensitive、特异性Specificity、AUC-ROC和AUC-PRC作为评价指标，实验结果表明，所提模型性能优于其他模型，AUC值达到94.3%。     

Trajectories of knowledge economy in SSA and MENA countries

In the first critical assessment of knowledge economy dynamic paths in Africa and the Middle East, but for a few exceptions, we find overwhelming support for diminishing cross-country disparities in knowledge-based economy dimensions. The paper employs all the four components of the World Bank's Knowledge Economy Index (KEI): economic incentives, innovation, education, and information infrastructure. The main finding suggests that sub-Saharan African (SSA) and the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries with low levels of KE dynamics and catching-up their counterparts of higher KE levels. We provide the speeds of integration and time necessary to achieve full (100%) integration. Policy implications are also discussed.     

（S）-噻吗洛尔半水合物的合成及表征

为了开发β受体阻断剂新药（S）-噻吗洛尔半水合物，采用3-吗啉-4-氯-1，2，5-噻二唑为起始原料，经水解反应得到中间体1（3-吗啉-4-羟基-1，2，5-噻二唑）。中间体1与R-环氧氯丙烷发生醚化反应，经后处理及重结晶得到中间体2 {（R）-4-［4-（环氧乙烷-2-基甲氧基）-1，2，5-噻二唑-3-基］吗啉}。中间体2经胺化反应、马来酸成盐及重结晶得到（S）-马来酸噻吗洛尔。（S）-马来酸噻吗洛尔经游离、纯水转晶得到符合药典标准的（S）-噻吗洛尔半水合物，总收率14.05%且e.e.值为99.66%。最终成品经IR、1H-NMR、13C-NMR、MS、TGA、DSC表征，并优化各步反应条件。结果表明:以三乙胺为醚化反应缚酸剂75 ℃反应最佳；以乙醇为胺化反应溶剂46 ℃反应16 h最佳；S-噻吗洛尔的转晶拆分以水作溶剂，比传统不对称合成工艺安全稳定，操作简单，适合工业化生产。     

Application of higher order spectral features and support vector machines for bearing faults classification

Condition monitoring and fault diagnosis of rolling element bearings timely and accurately are very important to ensure the reliability of rotating machinery. This paper presents a novel pattern classification approach for bearings diagnostics, which combines the higher order spectra analysis features and support vector machine classifier. The use of non-linear features motivated by the higher order spectra has been reported to be a promising approach to analyze the non-linear and non-Gaussian characteristics of the mechanical vibration signals. The vibration bi-spectrum (third order spectrum) patterns are extracted as the feature vectors presenting different bearing faults. The extracted bi-spectrum features are subjected to principal component analysis for dimensionality reduction. These principal components were fed to support vector machine to distinguish four kinds of bearing faults covering different levels of severity for each fault type, which were measured in the experimental test bench running under different working conditions. In order to find the optimal parameters for the multi-class support vector machine model, a grid-search method in combination with 10-fold cross-validation has been used. Based on the correct classification of bearing patterns in the test set, in each fold the performance measures are computed. The average of these performance measures is computed to report the overall performance of the support vector machine classifier. In addition, in fault detection problems, the performance of a detection algorithm usually depends on the trade-off between robustness and sensitivity. The sensitivity and robustness of the proposed method are explored by running a series of experiments. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve made the results more convincing. The results indicated that the proposed method can reliably identify different fault patterns of rolling element bearings based on vibration signals.     

改进HSR-FCN的服装图像识别分类算法研究

目前网络上的服装图像数量增长迅猛，对于大量服装图像实现智能分类的需求日益增加。将基于区域的全卷积网络（Region-Based Fully Convolutional Networks，R-FCN）引入到服装图像识别中，针对服装图像分类中网络训练时间长、形变服装图像识别率低的问题，提出一种新颖的改进框架HSR-FCN。新框架将R-FCN中的区域建议网络和HyperNet网络相融合，改变图片特征学习方式，使得HSR-FCN可以在更短的训练时间内达到更高的准确率。在模型中引入了空间转换网络，对输入服装图像和特征图进行了空间变换及对齐，加强了对多角度服装和形变服装的特征学习。实验结果表明，改进后的HSR-FCN模型有效地加强了对形变服装图像的学习，且在训练时间更短的情况下，比原来的网络模型R-FCN平均准确率提高了大约3个百分点，达到96.69%。     

平面并联机构工作空间的三维螺旋扫描CAD求解

针对平面并联机构无奇异位置工作空间求解困难、过程繁琐、计算量大等问题，提出了基于CAD求解平面并联机构工作空间的三维螺旋扫描方法。将[n]自由度平面并联机构分解成[n]条支链进行独立分析，得到每条支链下末端执行器的可达区域，再将所有支链可达区域取交集即为平面并联机构工作空间。应用SolidWorks软件建立平面并联机构模型，进行几何特征处理，通过自动求解器求解，将求解过程图形化，快速得到同轴布局5R机构和平面3-RPR并联机构的无奇异位置工作空间。通过同轴布局5R机构的运动学实验，验证了该求解方法的可行性。     

一种抗运动干扰的实时心率提取方法

针对基于容积脉搏波（PPG）提取运动心率时，传统心率提取算法由于运动噪声干扰使测量结果误差大、实时性不好的问题，提出一种抗运动干扰的实时心率提取方法。该方法通过实时小波去噪，同时结合三轴加速度信号（ACC）对运动进行分类训练，计算各运动状态心率增益，对实时心率值进行补偿。实验结果表明，通过与同时采集的ECG信号计算出的实时心率进行对比，绝对误差率仅为1.2%左右。相比传统心率提取算法，该算法具有抗干扰性强，实时准确的特点。     

PSO优化多核RVM的模拟电路故障预测

针对模拟电路健康管理的特点，提出了一种基于PSO优化多核RVM的模拟电路故障预测方法。利用参数分析得到电路的输出频域响应作为特征，计算其与电路无故障标准响应的欧氏距离来表征电路元件健康值，将多个核函数线性组合，并用PSO优化多核RVM参数后的模型实现对各个时间点元件的健康值变化轨迹进行预测。仿真结果表明，该方法在小样本情况下，预测效果优于单一核函数的RVM模型，适用于健康管理中实时预测，具有较好的实用性。     

Operational time-series data modeling via LSTM network integrating principal component analysis based on human experience

Today’s information technologies involve increasingly intelligent systems, which come at the cost of increasingly complex equipment. Modern monitoring systems collect multi-measuring-point and long-term data which make equipment health prediction a “big data” problem. It is difficult to extract information from such condition monitoring data to accurately estimate or predict health statuses. Deep learning is a powerful tool for big data processing that is widely utilized in image and speech recognition applications, and can also provide effective predictions in industrial processes. This paper proposes the Long Short-term Memory Integrating Principal Component Analysis based on Human Experience (HEPCA-LSTM), which uses operational time-series data for equipment health prognostics. Principal component analysis based on human experience is first conducted to extract condition parameters from the condition monitoring system. The long short-term memory (LSTM) framework is then constructed to predict the target status. Finally, a dynamic update of the prediction model with incoming data is performed at a certain interval to prevent any model misalignment caused by the drifting of relevant variables. The proposed model is validated on a practical case and found to outperform other prediction methods. It utilizes a powerful deep learning analysis method, the LSTM, to fully process big condition monitoring series data; it effectively extracts the features involved with human experience and takes dynamic updates into consideration.