南通进入“GDP 5000亿元城市俱乐部”后的思考

理性地看待2013年南通实现的地区生产总值超5 000亿元和人均GDP超1万美元的“双跨越”,分析南通市经济社会发展存在的不足,确定今后南通的发展道路.通过对比分析全国27个地区生产总值超5 000亿元城市的经济社会发展基本情况,重点研究南通市与27市,尤其是其中7个地级市之间经济社会发展的差距,并提出发展对策措施.     

A User‐Centric Evaluation Procedure for the Design of Child‐Resistant Medicine Bottles

Recently, people have begun to realize the importance of child‐resistant (CR) medicine packaging. However, most manufacturers and designers have not been able to effectively provide prevention strategies or design criteria to protect consumers. This research proposes a systematic approach to analyze CR packaging design problems and experiments to evaluate the identified design parameters and to generate the most suitable CR medicine packaging design. The design of a CR packaging bottle is used as an example to help explain the development procedure. During the development procedure, user trials, questionnaires, and children's anthropometric data on bottle opening and hand operations are analyzed. Five design parameters, specifically the cap diameter, cap height, bottle height, bottle diameter, and torsion, are identified and used to perform a Taguchi orthogonal array experimental analysis. A computer‐aided design system is also built to help generate the most suitable design alternatives. The results should assist designers in determining the most important CR design parameters and their most suitable combinations for bottle and related CR medicine packaging design.     

Biofidelic child head FE model to simulate real world trauma

Biomechanics of human head has been widely studied since several decades. At a mechanical level, the use of engineering allowed investigating injury mechanisms developing numerical models of adult head. For children, the problem is more difficult and evaluating child injury mechanisms using data obtained from scaling adult injury criteria does not account for differences in morphology and structure between adults and children. During growth, child head undergoes different modifications in morphology and structure. The present paper compares the anthropometry and numerical simulations of a child head model based on medical CT scans to a child head model developed by scaling an adult head model using the method proposed by Mertz [H.J. Mertz, A procedure for normalizing impact response data, SAE paper 840884, 1984]. These analysis point out significant differences showing that scaling down an adult head to obtain a child head does not appear relevant. Biofidelic and specific child geometry is needed to investigate child injury mechanisms.     

BS-SC Model: A Novel Method for Predicting Child Abuse Using Borderline-SMOTE Enabled Stacking Classifier

For a long time, legal entities have developed and used crime prediction methodologies. The techniques are frequently updated based on crime evaluations and responses from scientific communities. There is a need to develop type-based crime prediction methodologies that can be used to address issues at the subgroup level. Child maltreatment is not adequately addressed because children are voiceless. As a result, the possibility of developing a model for predicting child abuse was investigated in this study. Various exploratory analysis methods were used to examine the city of Chicago’s child abuse events. The data set was balanced using the Borderline-SMOTE technique, and then a stacking classifier was employed to ensemble multiple algorithms to predict various types of child abuse. The proposed approach successfully predicted crime types with 93% of accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-Score. The AUC value of the same was 0.989. However, when compared to the Extra Trees model (17.55), which is the second best, the proposed model’s execution time was significantly longer (476.63). We discovered that Machine Learning methods effectively evaluate the demographic and spatial-temporal characteristics of the crimes and predict the occurrences of various subtypes of child abuse. The results indicated that the proposed Borderline-SMOTE enabled Stacking Classifier model (BS-SC Model) would be effective in the real-time child abuse prediction and prevention process.     

混合异构网络中改进的TFRC机制

为改善TFRC协议在有线无线混合异构网络中的性能,提出改进的TFRC拥塞控制机制,在有线网络和无线网络水平切换的条件下对其性能进行仿真分析。结果表明,在频繁切换的移动互联网中,该算法能有效利用网络资源,提高网络吞吐量,加快发送速率提升速度,从而提升TFRC的性能。     

Call of (civic) duty: Action games and civic behavior in a large sample of youth

The positive and negative influences of violent/action games, henceforth called “action games”, remains controversial in the scholarly literature. Although debate continues whether action games influence aggressive behavior, little research has examined the influence of action games on civic engagement. The current study addresses this gap by examining the correlation between exposure to action games on civic engagement and on-line prosocial behavior in a sample of 873 teenagers. Results indicated that girls as well as teens who had parents who were more technologically savvy tended to engage in more civic behaviors. Exposure to action games predicted more prosocial behavior on-line, but did not predict civic engagement either positively or negatively. However, exposure to action games and parental involvement interacted to promote youth civic engagement. Action-game-playing-youth whose parents were involved in game play and supervision were most civically involved, compared to youth who did not play action games, or whose parents were less involved. These results indicated little support for the belief that exposure to violence in video games decreases prosocial behavior and/or civic engagement. Conversely some support was found for the possibility that playing action games is associated with small increased prosocial behavior and civic engagement in the real world, possibly due to the team-oriented multiplayer options in many of these games.     

Crossing safety barriers: influence of children's morphological and functional variables

Thirty-three children between 3 and 6 years of age were asked to climb four different types of safety barriers. Morphological and functional variables of the children, which were expected to influence climbing or passing through skills, were collected. The influence of those variables on children’s success rate and time to cross was tested. No barrier offered a total restraining efficacy. The horizontal bars barrier was crossed by 97% of the children. In the group of children that succeeded in crossing the four barriers, mean time to cross the most difficult barrier was 15 s. Age was the best predictor for success in crossing most barriers but morphology and strength were important predictors of time to cross. The influence of anthropometric variables in time to cross was dependent upon the characteristics of the barrier. A good design of safety barriers should consider children’s age, morphology and strength.     

An examination of the relationship between cycle training,cycle accidents,attitudes and cycling behaviour among children

Around 40% of 10–11-year-old children receive cycle training every year in the UK, but concern has been expressed over the efficacy of training courses. One argument is that accidents occur too infrequently to be a viable evaluative criterion, and attitudes and behaviour have been suggested as alternatives. A questionnaire that measured a number of variables including accidents, attitudes, and behaviour was completed by 336 participants from two schools in the London Borough of Bromley. At least one cycling injury had been sustained by 58.3% of respondents, requiring hospital treatment in 19.1% of cases. Girls reported fewer accidents than boys. No relationship between training and accidents was found. A principal components analysis (PCA) of the attitudes items produced a ‘safe attitudes’ factor. Girls displayed ‘safer’ attitudes, but there was no evidence that training produced safer attitudes. A PCA of the cycling behaviour scales produced two factors, ‘safe cycling’ and ‘showing off’. Safe cyclists who obeyed basic safety rules were less likely to sustain cycle injuries, but showing off was not related to accidents. Girls were less likely to show off, but the safe behaviour gender difference did not reach significance. Training did not relate to either factor.     

The influence of pedestrian countdown signals on children’s crossing behavior at school intersections

Previous studies have shown that pedestrian countdown signals had different influences on pedestrian crossing behavior. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of the installation of countdown signals at school intersections on children’s crossing behavior. A comparison analysis was carried out on the basis of observations at two different school intersections with or without pedestrian countdown signals in the city of Jinan, China. Four types of children’s crossing behavior and child pedestrian-vehicle conflicts were analyzed in detail. The analysis results showed that using pedestrian countdown timers during the Red Man phase led to more children’s violation and running behavior. Theses violators created more conflicts with vehicles. However, pedestrian countdown signals were effective at helping child pedestrian to complete crossing before the red light onset, avoid getting caught in the middle of crosswalk. No significant difference was found in children who started crossing during Flashing Green Man phase between the two types of pedestrian signals. Moreover, analysis results indicated that children who crossed the road alone had more violation and adventure crossing behavior than those had companions. Boys were found more likely to run crossing than girls, but there was no significant gender difference in other crossing behavior. Finally, it’s recommended to remove countdown at the end of the Red Man phase to improve children’s crossing behavior and reduce the conflicts with vehicles. Meanwhile other measures are proposed to improve children safety at school intersections.     

The economic case for low-carbon development in rapidly growing developing world cities: A case study of Palembang,Indonesia

Where costs or risks are higher, evidence is lacking or supporting institutions are less developed, policymakers can struggle to make the case for low-carbon investment. This is especially the case in developing world cities where decision-makers struggle to keep up with the pace and scale of change. Focusing on Palembang in Indonesia, this paper considers the economic case for proactive investment in low-carbon development. We find that a rapidly growing industrial city in a developing country can reduce emissions by 24.1% in 2025, relative to business as usual levels, with investments of USD405.6 million that would reduce energy expenditure in the city by USD436.8 million. Emissions from the regional grid could be reduced by 12.2% in 2025, relative to business as usual trends, with investments of USD2.9 billion that would generate annual savings of USD175 million. These estimates understate the savings from reduced expenditure on energy subsidies and energy infrastructure. The compelling economic case for mainstreaming climate mitigation in this developing country city suggests that the constraints on climate action can be political and institutional rather than economic. There is therefore a need for more effective energy governance to drive the transition to a low-carbon economy.