Cold and wet: Diatoms dominate the phytoplankton community during a year of anomalous weather in a Great Lakes estuary

As sentinels of climate change and other anthropogenic forces, freshwater lakes are experiencing ecosystem disruptions at every level of the food web, beginning with the phytoplankton, a highly responsive group of organisms. Most studies regarding the effects of climate change on phytoplankton focus on a potential scenario in which temperatures continuously increase and droughts intersperse heavy precipitation events. Like much of the conterminous United States in 2019, the Muskegon River watershed (Michigan, USA) experienced record-breaking rainfall accompanied by unusually cool temperatures, affording an opportunity to explore how an alternate potential climate scenario may affect phytoplankton. We conducted biweekly sampling of environmental variables and phytoplankton in Muskegon Lake, a Great Lakes Area of Concern that connects to Lake Michigan. We compared environmental variables in 2019 to the previous eight years using long-term data from the Muskegon Lake Observatory buoy, and annual monitoring excursions provided historical phytoplankton data. Under cold and wet conditions, diatoms were the single dominant division throughout the entire growth season – an unprecedented scenario in Muskegon Lake. In 10 of the 13 biweekly sampling days in 2019, diatoms comprised over 75% of the phytoplankton community in the lake by count, indicating that the spring diatom bloom persisted through the fall. Additionally, phytoplankton seasonal succession and abundance patterns typically seen in this lake were absent. In a world experiencing reduced predictability, increased variability, and regional climate anomalies, studying periods of extreme weather events may offer insight into how natural systems will be affected and respond under future climate scenarios.     

Impact assessment of reservoir desiltation measures for downstream riverbed migration in climate change: A case study in northern Taiwan

Typhoon Aere in 2004 induced severe sedimentation and loss of storage capacity of the Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan. The resulting dramatic increase in the turbidity of the water seriously affected the water supply. To effectively maintain the stability of the water supply and maintain the reservoir’s storage capacity, the government of Taiwan began to plan and construct a series of improvement measures, such as a sediment flushing tunnel, the JhongJhuang Bank-Side Reservoir, and the Amuping Desilting Tunnel. However, previous studies only focused on the impact of the sediment flushing tunnel and the Amuping Desilting Tunnel on the downstream riverbed, and did not consider the possibility of increasing sediment discharge after the completion of the JhongJhuang Bank-Side Reservoir. In addition, climate change will cause the intensity of extreme rainfall to increase enormously in the future. That rainfall and extra sediment flushing will challenge the existing flood prevention facilities. Therefore, this study considered that the JhongJhuang Bank-Side Reservoir will increase sediment discharge of the Shihmen Reservoir, and used dynamical downscaling extreme typhoon data of climate change under the RCP 8.5 scenario to explore the flood prevention and riverbed migration of the main channels of the Dahan and Tamsui Rivers in the future. We used the rainfall–runoff model of Hydrologic Modeling System to simulate rainfall and runoff, and used the hydraulic and sediment transport model of CCHE1D to holistically simulate flood events and consequent river scouring and deposition behaviors. Our results showed that the projected peak discharge during the late 21st century (2075 to 2099) will be at least 50% higher than that during the baseline (1979 to 2003) period. In terms of flood prevention, the potential of overbank flooding will increase in the downstream area, and the trend of long-term change in the riverbed will be dominated by degradation (-0.489 ± 0.743 m) in the future. The improvement measures will have a limited impact on riverbed migration (0.011 ± 0.094 m) in the Dahan and Tamsui Rivers. After the operation of the JhongJhuang Bank-Side Reservoir, the Shihmen Reservoir is expected to increase the sediment discharge ratio by 70% during floods, and it will not cause excessive water turbidity that may affect downstream water supply.     

How to accelerate green technology diffusion? Directed technological change in the presence of coevolving absorptive capacity

The time window for effective climate change mitigation is closing. Technological change needs to be accelerated to limit global warming to a manageable level. Path dependence of technological change is one explanation for sluggish diffusion of green technologies. Firms acquire capital that differs by technology type and build up type-specific technological know-how needed to use capital efficiently. Path dependence emerges from cumulative knowledge stocks manifested in the productivity of supplied capital and firms’ capabilities. Increasing returns arise from induced innovation feedbacks and learning by doing. Relatively lower endowments with technological knowledge are a barrier to diffusion for new technologies. This paper shows how the evolution of relative stocks of technological knowledge explains different shapes of diffusion curves. Using an eco-technology extension of the macroeconomic agent-based model Eurace@unibi, it is shown how the effectiveness of different climate policies depends on the type and strength of diffusion barriers. Environmental taxes can outweigh lower productivity and subsidies perform better if lacking capabilities hinder firms to adopt a sufficiently mature technology.     

Design and Characterization of the CLIMPAQ,Chamber for Laboratory Investigations of Materials,Pollution and Air Quality*

A test chamber has been developed in order to provide a small and simple emission testing facility capable of testing construction products in a climate where the important climatic parameters such as temperature, ventilation rate and air velocity can be varied independently around typical indoor values. The test chamber CLIMPAQ is made of panes of window glass. Other main surface materials are stainless steel and eloxated aluminium. The chamber has a volume of 50.9 litres and is designed to meet the requirements for quantifying air pollution. In this investigation human subjects acted as air pollution judges, and chemical characterization of the air pollution was carried out. Carpet, linoleum, wall paint and seal- ant were tested simultaneously in the CLIMPAQ and in four other chambers ranging from a full-scale chamber of 28 m³ to a field and laboratory emission cell of 3.5· 10^?5m³. Product ranking is the same in all chambers for the sensory measurements. Emission rates based on sensory measurements differ for all products less than 100 % except for tests in a 3-litre chamber where emission rates were higher. Chemical measurements differ up to approximately 10 times for the same product in different chambers. Deviations appear to be the result of different environmental parameters in the various chambers. Low air concentrations or high specific ventilation rates seem to increase emissions, while differences in air velocities and sink properties may also be the cause of differences in emission rates.     

Use of climate scenarios to aid in decision analysis for interannual water supply planning

This work addresses the issue of climate change in the context of water resource planning on the time scale of a few years. Planning on this time scale generally ignores the role of climate change. However, where the climate of a region has already shifted, the use of historical data for planning purposes may be misleading. In order to test this, a case study is conducted for a region, the Australian Capital Territory, where long term drought is raising concerns of a possible climate shift. The issue is cast in terms of a particular planning decision; the option to augment water supply in the next few years to hedge against the drought persisting. A set of climate scenarios are constructed for the region corresponding to the historical climate regime and to regimes where progressively greater levels of change are assumed to have already taken place (5%, 10%, 20% reductions in mean rainfall). Probabilities of the drought persisting are calculated for each of the scenarios. The results show substantial increases in the probability of the drought persisting for even moderate reductions in mean rainfall. The sensitivity of the decision to augment supply to the scenario results depends ultimately on the planners tolerable thresholds for the probability of the drought persisting. The use of different scenarios enables planners to explore the sensitivity of the decision in terms of their risk tolerance to ongoing drought and to their degree of belief in each of the scenarios tested.     

Snowpack response in the Assiniboine-Red River basin associated with projected global warming of 1.0 °C to 3.0 °C

This study assesses snow response in the Assiniboine-Red River basin, located in the Lake Winnipeg watershed, due to anthropogenic climate change. We use a process-based distributed snow model driven by an ensemble of eight statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to project future changes under policy-relevant global mean temperature (GMT) increases of 1.0 °C to 3.0 °C above the pre-industrial period. Results indicate that basin scale seasonal warmings generally exceed the GMT increases, with greater warming in winter months. The majority of GCMs project wetter winters and springs, and drier summers, while autumn could become either drier or wetter. An analysis of snow water equivalent (SWE) responses under GMT changes reveal higher correlations of snow cover duration (SCD), snowmelt rate, maximum SWE (SWE_max) and timing of SWE_max with winter and spring temperatures compared to precipitation, implying that these variables are predominantly temperature controlled. Consequently, under the GMT increases from 1.0 °C to 3.0 °C, the basin will experience successively shorter SCD, slower snowmelt, smaller monthly SWE and SWE_max, earlier SWE_max, and a transition from snow-dominated to rain-snow hybrid regime. Further, while the winter precipitation increases for some GCMs compensate the temperature-driven changes in SWE, the increases for most GCMs occur as rainfall, thus limiting the positive contribution to snow storage. Overall, this study provides a detailed diagnosis of the snow regime changes under the policy-relevant GMT changes, and a basis for further investigations on water quantity and quality changes.     

Performance of lot-level low impact development technologies under historical and climate change scenarios

Low impact development (LID) systems have potential to make urban cities more sustainable and resilient, particularly under challenging climate conditions. To quantify performance capabilities, modeling results for an array of combinations of LIDs are described using PCSWMM at lot-level to examine performance of individual LIDs on volume and peak flow reductions. Among the four LIDs studied: rain barrel (RB), vegetative swale (VS), bioretention cell (BC), and permeable pavement (PP), PP at lot-level demonstrated the best capability for reducing surface runoff volumes and peak runoff rates under historical weather conditions, while BC showed similar capability for reduction of runoff volumes but minimal peak flow reduction. With PP as the controlling method at lot-level, the maximum percentage reduction of runoff volume for a 2-year storm is 58% whereas for a 100-year storm, the runoff volume reduction is 20%. These results mean the extent of flooding that may arise from the 100-year storm is reduced, but not eliminated. Effectively, the 100-year storm volumes with LID are devolved to have flooding equivalent to a 25-year storm. Under climate change scenarios, performance for all LIDs declined at various levels, where BC was the most resilient LID for a climate change scenario, such that projected 2-year or 5-year storms with climate change will have its impact devolved with LID in place, to result in similar volumes and peaks without LID under historical conditions. Furthermore, even with an assembly of lot-level LIDs distributed throughout the community, there is not attenuation to substantial degrees of flooding for major events, but there can be effective control for water quantity for small (2- to 5-years in particular) storm events.     

Pathways to eliminate carbon emissions via renewable energy investments at higher education institutions

Higher education institutions are among the many public and private sector entities that have committed to long-term sustainability goals in response to the threat of climate change. A key challenge for these institutions is establishing a commitment to make targeted investments in renewable energy technologies in support of emissions reduction goals. Such strategies require a vision to simultaneously coordinate strategic investments in renewable energy technologies with tactical operational decisions to achieve the desired benefits. In this paper, we formulate and solve a least-cost renewable energy capacity investment planning model to determine pathways to achieve emissions reduction strategies. Specifically, we apply our model to Rutgers University to evaluate its target of 100 % carbon neutrality. Using these insights, we share recommendations on how these strategies can be executed. This research serves as a springboard for administrators to assess and deploy their emissions reduction strategies, while ensuring system and financial constraints are satisfied.     

CCUS in a net-zero U.S. power sector: Policy design,rates, and project finance

Carbon capture utilization and storage is an important technology option to rapidly and profoundly decarbonize the power sector, but will not deploy without substantial incentives or regulation. Assessment of U.S. policy options reveals that current incentives only partially close the finance gap and are most sensitive to fuel type and ownership structure. Recent proposed legislation would in some designs attract private investment for many projects, leading to widespread deployment of CCUS in the power sector. Additional constraints and concerns (including technology options and presence of CO₂ infrastructure) could play an important secondary role. This study discusses the specific US incentive policies that can provide investors and lenders with net cash flows that are adequate to attract private capital to CCUS power projects in the US.     

Environmental and climate justice and technological carbon removal

Environmental justice (EJ) and climate justice are becoming central foci of climate policy. Awareness is also growing on the need for some amount of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to curb warming to 1.5 °C. In this paper we map dimensions of environmental and climate justice that stakeholders and communities will need to consider -- from local to global scales. Mapping issues is a step towards developing frameworks to undertake CDR in an environmentally just way.