Cold and wet: Diatoms dominate the phytoplankton community during a year of anomalous weather in a Great Lakes estuary

As sentinels of climate change and other anthropogenic forces, freshwater lakes are experiencing ecosystem disruptions at every level of the food web, beginning with the phytoplankton, a highly responsive group of organisms. Most studies regarding the effects of climate change on phytoplankton focus on a potential scenario in which temperatures continuously increase and droughts intersperse heavy precipitation events. Like much of the conterminous United States in 2019, the Muskegon River watershed (Michigan, USA) experienced record-breaking rainfall accompanied by unusually cool temperatures, affording an opportunity to explore how an alternate potential climate scenario may affect phytoplankton. We conducted biweekly sampling of environmental variables and phytoplankton in Muskegon Lake, a Great Lakes Area of Concern that connects to Lake Michigan. We compared environmental variables in 2019 to the previous eight years using long-term data from the Muskegon Lake Observatory buoy, and annual monitoring excursions provided historical phytoplankton data. Under cold and wet conditions, diatoms were the single dominant division throughout the entire growth season – an unprecedented scenario in Muskegon Lake. In 10 of the 13 biweekly sampling days in 2019, diatoms comprised over 75% of the phytoplankton community in the lake by count, indicating that the spring diatom bloom persisted through the fall. Additionally, phytoplankton seasonal succession and abundance patterns typically seen in this lake were absent. In a world experiencing reduced predictability, increased variability, and regional climate anomalies, studying periods of extreme weather events may offer insight into how natural systems will be affected and respond under future climate scenarios.     

Impact assessment of reservoir desiltation measures for downstream riverbed migration in climate change: A case study in northern Taiwan

Typhoon Aere in 2004 induced severe sedimentation and loss of storage capacity of the Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan. The resulting dramatic increase in the turbidity of the water seriously affected the water supply. To effectively maintain the stability of the water supply and maintain the reservoir’s storage capacity, the government of Taiwan began to plan and construct a series of improvement measures, such as a sediment flushing tunnel, the JhongJhuang Bank-Side Reservoir, and the Amuping Desilting Tunnel. However, previous studies only focused on the impact of the sediment flushing tunnel and the Amuping Desilting Tunnel on the downstream riverbed, and did not consider the possibility of increasing sediment discharge after the completion of the JhongJhuang Bank-Side Reservoir. In addition, climate change will cause the intensity of extreme rainfall to increase enormously in the future. That rainfall and extra sediment flushing will challenge the existing flood prevention facilities. Therefore, this study considered that the JhongJhuang Bank-Side Reservoir will increase sediment discharge of the Shihmen Reservoir, and used dynamical downscaling extreme typhoon data of climate change under the RCP 8.5 scenario to explore the flood prevention and riverbed migration of the main channels of the Dahan and Tamsui Rivers in the future. We used the rainfall–runoff model of Hydrologic Modeling System to simulate rainfall and runoff, and used the hydraulic and sediment transport model of CCHE1D to holistically simulate flood events and consequent river scouring and deposition behaviors. Our results showed that the projected peak discharge during the late 21st century (2075 to 2099) will be at least 50% higher than that during the baseline (1979 to 2003) period. In terms of flood prevention, the potential of overbank flooding will increase in the downstream area, and the trend of long-term change in the riverbed will be dominated by degradation (-0.489 ± 0.743 m) in the future. The improvement measures will have a limited impact on riverbed migration (0.011 ± 0.094 m) in the Dahan and Tamsui Rivers. After the operation of the JhongJhuang Bank-Side Reservoir, the Shihmen Reservoir is expected to increase the sediment discharge ratio by 70% during floods, and it will not cause excessive water turbidity that may affect downstream water supply.     

How to accelerate green technology diffusion? Directed technological change in the presence of coevolving absorptive capacity

The time window for effective climate change mitigation is closing. Technological change needs to be accelerated to limit global warming to a manageable level. Path dependence of technological change is one explanation for sluggish diffusion of green technologies. Firms acquire capital that differs by technology type and build up type-specific technological know-how needed to use capital efficiently. Path dependence emerges from cumulative knowledge stocks manifested in the productivity of supplied capital and firms’ capabilities. Increasing returns arise from induced innovation feedbacks and learning by doing. Relatively lower endowments with technological knowledge are a barrier to diffusion for new technologies. This paper shows how the evolution of relative stocks of technological knowledge explains different shapes of diffusion curves. Using an eco-technology extension of the macroeconomic agent-based model Eurace@unibi, it is shown how the effectiveness of different climate policies depends on the type and strength of diffusion barriers. Environmental taxes can outweigh lower productivity and subsidies perform better if lacking capabilities hinder firms to adopt a sufficiently mature technology.     

Design and Characterization of the CLIMPAQ,Chamber for Laboratory Investigations of Materials,Pollution and Air Quality*

A test chamber has been developed in order to provide a small and simple emission testing facility capable of testing construction products in a climate where the important climatic parameters such as temperature, ventilation rate and air velocity can be varied independently around typical indoor values. The test chamber CLIMPAQ is made of panes of window glass. Other main surface materials are stainless steel and eloxated aluminium. The chamber has a volume of 50.9 litres and is designed to meet the requirements for quantifying air pollution. In this investigation human subjects acted as air pollution judges, and chemical characterization of the air pollution was carried out. Carpet, linoleum, wall paint and seal- ant were tested simultaneously in the CLIMPAQ and in four other chambers ranging from a full-scale chamber of 28 m³ to a field and laboratory emission cell of 3.5· 10^?5m³. Product ranking is the same in all chambers for the sensory measurements. Emission rates based on sensory measurements differ for all products less than 100 % except for tests in a 3-litre chamber where emission rates were higher. Chemical measurements differ up to approximately 10 times for the same product in different chambers. Deviations appear to be the result of different environmental parameters in the various chambers. Low air concentrations or high specific ventilation rates seem to increase emissions, while differences in air velocities and sink properties may also be the cause of differences in emission rates.     

Use of climate scenarios to aid in decision analysis for interannual water supply planning

This work addresses the issue of climate change in the context of water resource planning on the time scale of a few years. Planning on this time scale generally ignores the role of climate change. However, where the climate of a region has already shifted, the use of historical data for planning purposes may be misleading. In order to test this, a case study is conducted for a region, the Australian Capital Territory, where long term drought is raising concerns of a possible climate shift. The issue is cast in terms of a particular planning decision; the option to augment water supply in the next few years to hedge against the drought persisting. A set of climate scenarios are constructed for the region corresponding to the historical climate regime and to regimes where progressively greater levels of change are assumed to have already taken place (5%, 10%, 20% reductions in mean rainfall). Probabilities of the drought persisting are calculated for each of the scenarios. The results show substantial increases in the probability of the drought persisting for even moderate reductions in mean rainfall. The sensitivity of the decision to augment supply to the scenario results depends ultimately on the planners tolerable thresholds for the probability of the drought persisting. The use of different scenarios enables planners to explore the sensitivity of the decision in terms of their risk tolerance to ongoing drought and to their degree of belief in each of the scenarios tested.     

Snowpack response in the Assiniboine-Red River basin associated with projected global warming of 1.0 °C to 3.0 °C

This study assesses snow response in the Assiniboine-Red River basin, located in the Lake Winnipeg watershed, due to anthropogenic climate change. We use a process-based distributed snow model driven by an ensemble of eight statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to project future changes under policy-relevant global mean temperature (GMT) increases of 1.0 °C to 3.0 °C above the pre-industrial period. Results indicate that basin scale seasonal warmings generally exceed the GMT increases, with greater warming in winter months. The majority of GCMs project wetter winters and springs, and drier summers, while autumn could become either drier or wetter. An analysis of snow water equivalent (SWE) responses under GMT changes reveal higher correlations of snow cover duration (SCD), snowmelt rate, maximum SWE (SWE_max) and timing of SWE_max with winter and spring temperatures compared to precipitation, implying that these variables are predominantly temperature controlled. Consequently, under the GMT increases from 1.0 °C to 3.0 °C, the basin will experience successively shorter SCD, slower snowmelt, smaller monthly SWE and SWE_max, earlier SWE_max, and a transition from snow-dominated to rain-snow hybrid regime. Further, while the winter precipitation increases for some GCMs compensate the temperature-driven changes in SWE, the increases for most GCMs occur as rainfall, thus limiting the positive contribution to snow storage. Overall, this study provides a detailed diagnosis of the snow regime changes under the policy-relevant GMT changes, and a basis for further investigations on water quantity and quality changes.     

Developing habitat associations for fishes in Lake Winnipeg by linking large scale bathymetric and substrate data with fish telemetry detections

Understanding relationships between freshwater fishes and habitat is critical for effective fisheries and habitat management. Habitat suitability indices (HSI) are commonly used to describe fish–habitat associations in rivers and other freshwater ecosystems. When applied to large lakes however, standard sampling procedures are inadequate because of larger sampling areas and an increased risk of fish collection bias through one-time observations. Here, we use lake bathymetry, substrate, and multiple fish telemetry detections collected from a systematically deployed receiver grid to develop HSI for four fish species (lake sturgeon, freshwater drum, common carp, and walleye) in Lake Winnipeg. Seasonal variations in habitat use based on water depth and substrate were observed in three of four species. Lake sturgeon remained in shallow locations with predominantly gravel substrate near the mouth of the Winnipeg River regardless of season. Freshwater drum persisted over fine substrate in both summer and winter but had a broader depth range in the summer compared to winter. Common carp shifted from mid-range depths and silt substrate in the summer to shallow depths and gravel substrate in the winter. Walleye showed an unchanging association to fine substrate but expanded from primarily mid-range depths in the summer to include shallower depths in the winter. These findings show how multiple telemetry detections per fish can be combined with hydroacoustic data to provide informative habitat associations for fishes in a large lacustrine ecosystem.     

基于山区地质灾害危险性分区的建设用地适宜性评价

地质灾害是建设用地选址时考虑的关键因素之一,也是危险性区划的主要参考要素,其直接或间接危害到人类安全并给社会和经济建设造成重大损失。为了降低建设用地规划中地质灾害的影响,应将地质灾害危险性分区考虑到建设用地适宜性评价当中。以干旱河谷山区丹巴县为研究区,运用确定系数和逻辑回归相结合的方法,构建地质灾害危险性评价体系对该区进行地质灾害危险性分区。选择安全因子、自然因子、社会因子和生态因子共同构成建设用地适宜性评价指标体系,利用层次分析法对研究区进行建设用地适宜性评价。结果表明:(1)对丹巴县进行危险性分区,极高危险区217.20km2,高危险区744.95km2,中度危险区1352.44km2,低度危险区1295.08km2以及极低危险区875.32km2。(2)丹巴县建设用地最适宜区面积为115.72km2,占县域总面积的2.57%,适宜建设的土地少且多集中在小金川、革什扎河、东谷河和大渡河沿岸河谷地区。较适宜区、基本适宜区、较不适宜区和禁止建设区面积分别为683.47km2、623.21km2、590.66km2、2494.21km2。(3)已建成的城镇空间中38.50%和37.62%分布在最适宜区和较适宜区,整体分布状况良好。有5.85%的城镇空间建设在较不适宜区,2.67%在禁止建设区,存在生态安全风险,该区域应加强灾害预警与防灾减灾工作,有条件地适度搬迁。     

Performance of lot-level low impact development technologies under historical and climate change scenarios

Low impact development (LID) systems have potential to make urban cities more sustainable and resilient, particularly under challenging climate conditions. To quantify performance capabilities, modeling results for an array of combinations of LIDs are described using PCSWMM at lot-level to examine performance of individual LIDs on volume and peak flow reductions. Among the four LIDs studied: rain barrel (RB), vegetative swale (VS), bioretention cell (BC), and permeable pavement (PP), PP at lot-level demonstrated the best capability for reducing surface runoff volumes and peak runoff rates under historical weather conditions, while BC showed similar capability for reduction of runoff volumes but minimal peak flow reduction. With PP as the controlling method at lot-level, the maximum percentage reduction of runoff volume for a 2-year storm is 58% whereas for a 100-year storm, the runoff volume reduction is 20%. These results mean the extent of flooding that may arise from the 100-year storm is reduced, but not eliminated. Effectively, the 100-year storm volumes with LID are devolved to have flooding equivalent to a 25-year storm. Under climate change scenarios, performance for all LIDs declined at various levels, where BC was the most resilient LID for a climate change scenario, such that projected 2-year or 5-year storms with climate change will have its impact devolved with LID in place, to result in similar volumes and peaks without LID under historical conditions. Furthermore, even with an assembly of lot-level LIDs distributed throughout the community, there is not attenuation to substantial degrees of flooding for major events, but there can be effective control for water quantity for small (2- to 5-years in particular) storm events.