建筑工业化发展的多群体演化博弈与仿真研究

新型建筑工业化具有高质量、低消耗、可循环发展等特征，其推广已上升到国家战略层面。利用演化博弈方法，建立“政府-开发商-银行” 的三方动态演化博弈模型，进行各博弈主体策略的演化稳定性分析，并针对初始状态、奖惩力度、借贷风险和开发成本等对演化结果的影响进行动态仿真。在此基础上， 考虑开发商群体的网络拓扑特征对演化真实性的影响，引入复杂网络理论， 以无标度网络为载体描述开发商个体的连接偏好和决策机制，构建政府监管下的建筑工业化扩散模型，并通过仿真深入研究相关因素对扩散深度的影响作用，最后结合仿真结果给出相应对策建议。     

Predicting Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) populations and associated grain damage in smallholder farmers’ maize stores: A machine learning approach

Prostephanus truncatus is a notorious pest of stored-maize grain and its spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa has led to increased levels of grain storage losses. The current study developed models to predict the level of P. truncatus infestation and associated damage of maize grain in smallholder farmer stores. Data were gathered from grain storage trials conducted in Hwedza and Mbire districts of Zimbabwe and correlated with weather data for each site. Insect counts of P. truncatus and other common stored grain insect pests had a strong correlation with time of year with highest recorded numbers from January to May. Correlation analysis showed insect-generated grain dust from boring and feeding activity to be the best indicator of P. truncatus presence in stores (r = 0.70), while a moderate correlation (r = 0.48) was found between P. truncatus numbers and storage insect parasitic wasps, and grain damage levels significantly correlated with the presence of Tribolium castaneum (r = 0.60). Models were developed for predicting P. truncatus infestation and grain damage using parameter selection algorithms and decision-tree machine learning algorithms with 10-fold cross-validation. The P. truncatus population size prediction model performance was weak (r = 0.43) due to the complicated sampling and detection of the pest and eight-week long period between sampling events. The grain damage prediction model had a stronger correlation coefficient (r = 0.93) and is a good estimator for in situ stored grain insect damage. The models were developed for use under southern African climatic conditions and can be improved with more input data to create more precise models for building decision-support tools for smallholder maize-based production systems.     

A gradient boosting decision tree approach for insider trading identification: An empirical model evaluation of China stock market

Insider trading is a kind of criminal behavior in stock market by using nonpublic information. In recent years, it has become the major illegal activity in China’s stock market. In this study, a combination approach of GBDT (Gradient Boosting Decision Tree) and DE (Differential Evolution) is proposed to identify insider trading activities by using data of relevant indicators. First, insider trading samples occurred from year 2007 to 2017 and corresponding non-insider trading samples are collected. Next, the proposed method is trained by the GBDT, and initial parameters of the GBDT are optimized by the DE. Finally, out-of-samples are classified by the trained GBDT–DE model and its performances are evaluated. The experiment results show that our proposed method performed the best for insider trading identification under time window length of ninety days, indicating the relevant indicators under 90-days time window length are relatively more useful. Additionally, under all three time window lengths, relative importance result shows that several indicators are consistently crucial for insider trading identification. Furthermore, the proposed approach significantly outperforms other benchmark methods, demonstrating that it could be applied as an intelligent system to improve identification accuracy and efficiency for insider trading regulation in China stock market.     

Improving the multi-objective evolutionary optimization algorithm for hydropower reservoir operations in the California Oroville–Thermalito complex

This study demonstrates the application of an improved Evolutionary optimization Algorithm (EA), titled Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization Method with Principal Component Analysis and Crowding Distance Operator (MOSPD), for the hydropower reservoir operation of the Oroville–Thermalito Complex (OTC) – a crucial head-water resource for the California State Water Project (SWP). In the OTC's water-hydropower joint management study, the nonlinearity of hydropower generation and the reservoir's water elevation–storage relationship are explicitly formulated by polynomial function in order to closely match realistic situations and reduce linearization approximation errors. Comparison among different curve-fitting methods is conducted to understand the impact of the simplification of reservoir topography. In the optimization algorithm development, techniques of crowding distance and principal component analysis are implemented to improve the diversity and convergence of the optimal solutions towards and along the Pareto optimal set in the objective space. A comparative evaluation among the new algorithm MOSPD, the original Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization Method (MOCOM), the Multi-Objective Differential Evolution method (MODE), the Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA), the Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing approach (MOSA), and the Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization scheme (MOPSO) is conducted using the benchmark functions. The results show that best the MOSPD algorithm demonstrated the best and most consistent performance when compared with other algorithms on the test problems. The newly developed algorithm (MOSPD) is further applied to the OTC reservoir releasing problem during the snow melting season in 1998 (wet year), 2000 (normal year) and 2001 (dry year), in which the more spreading and converged non-dominated solutions of MOSPD provide decision makers with better operational alternatives for effectively and efficiently managing the OTC reservoirs in response to the different climates, especially drought, which has become more and more severe and frequent in California.     

Design structure matrix (DSM) method application to issue of modeling and analyzing the fault tree of a wind energy asset

The perpetual energy production of a wind farm could be accomplished (under proper weather conditions) if no failures occurred. But even the best possible design, manufacturing, and maintenance of a system cannot eliminate the failure possibility. In order to understand and minimize the system failures, the most crucial components of the wind turbines, which are prone to failures, should be identified. Moreover, it is essential to determine and classify the criticality of the system failures according to the impact of these failure events on wind turbine safety. The present study is processing the failure data from a wind farm and uses the Fault Tree Analysis as a baseline for applying the Design Structure Matrix technique to reveal the failure and risk interactions between wind turbine subsystems. Based on the analysis performed and by introducing new importance measures, the “readiness to fail” of a subsystem in conjunction with the “failure riskiness” can determine the “failure criticality.” The value of the failure criticality can define the frame within which interventions could be done. The arising interventions could be applied either to the whole system or could be focused in specified pairs of wind turbine subsystems. In conclusion, the method analyzed in the present research can be effectively applied by the wind turbine manufacturers and the wind farm operators as an operation framework, which can lead to a limited (as possible) design‐out maintenance cost, failures' minimization, and safety maximization for the whole wind turbine system.     

采油树平板闸阀柔性密封圈结构优化设计

为了提高采油树平板闸阀密封圈的密封性能,在泛塞封的基础上,设计一种密封圈本体唇边开有锯齿状凸起的新型柔性密封结构;运用有限元分析方法模拟密封圈的工作状况,分析柔性密封结构特性参数对密封圈密封性能的影响,获得不同柔性密封圈结构参数下密封面间接触应力分布规律,并对新型密封结构进行优化。结果表明:密封面间最大接触应力随唇边锯齿数量、唇边夹角度数的增大而增大,随唇谷夹角度数的增大而减小;新型密封结构选择锯齿数量为3、唇边夹角为20°、唇谷夹角为30°的特性参数时,其最大接触应力比常规Y形密封圈提高了15倍;新型柔性密封结构的密封圈与阀杆、阀盖壁面间接触应力比常规Y形密封圈有显著提高,提高了密封圈的密封性能。     

Attribute Allocation and Retrieval Scheme for Large-Scale Sensor Networks

Wireless sensor network is an emerging technology that enables remote monitoring of large geographical regions. In this paper, we address the problem of distributing attributes over such a large-scale sensor network so that the cost of data retrieval is minimized. The proposed scheme is a data-centric storage scheme where the attributes are distributed over the network depending on the correlations between them. The problem addressed here is similar to the Allocation Problem of distributed databases. In this paper, we have defined the Allocation Problem in the context of sensor networks and have proposed a scheme for finding a good distribution of attributes to the sensor network. We also propose an architecture for query processing given such a distribution of attributes. We analytically determine the conditions under which the proposed architecture is beneficial and present simulation results to demonstrate the same. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to determine an allocation of attributes over a sensor network based on the correlations between attributes.     

分类挖掘技术在高校人事管理中的应用

探讨分类挖掘技术在高校实际工作中的应用方式与应用领域。以高校人事管理为模型，应用数据挖掘中决策树算法，对高校人力资源数据源中的信息进行分析，发现其中有价值的数据模式，寻找其中存在的关系和规则，对高校人才规划提供比较客观的决策支持。