江西省都昌县2000年旱情的思考

通过都昌县2000年旱情及受灾情况的分析，揭示了产生这种现象的原因，并且提出了相应解决问题的对策。     

2011年春夏季江西旱情水文分析

文章介绍了2011年春夏季江西旱情,并对未来旱涝并存的情况作了阐述.     

Integrating scientific modeling and supporting dynamic hazard management with a GeoAgent-based representation of human–environment interactions: A drought example in Central Pennsylvania, USA

Recent natural disasters indicate that modern technologies for environmental monitoring, modeling, and forecasting are not well integrated with cross-level social responses in many hazard-management systems. This research addresses this problem through a Java-based multi-agent prototype system, GeoAgent-based Knowledge System (GeoAgentKS). This system allows: (1) computer representation of institutional regulations and behavioral rules used by multiple social institutions and individuals in cross-level human–environment interactions, (2) integration of this representation with scientific modeling of dynamic hazard development, and (3) application of automated reasoning that suggests to users the appropriate actions for supporting cooperative social responses. This paper demonstrates the software architecture of GeoAgentKS and presents such an integrated approach by modeling the drought management processes in Central Pennsylvania, USA. The results show that it is possible to use GeoAgentKS to represent multilevel human–environment interactions and to use those interactions as input to decision making in hazard management.     

An integrated package for drought monitoring,prediction and analysis to aid drought modeling and assessment

Due to severe drought events and disastrous impacts in recent decades, substantial efforts have been devoted recently to drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis for aiding drought preparedness plans and mitigation measures. Providing an overview of these aspects of drought research, this study presents an integrated R package and illustrates a wide range of its applications for drought modeling and assessment based on univariate and multivariate drought indices for both operational and research purposes. The package also includes statistical prediction of drought in a probabilistic manner based on multiple drought indicators, which serves as a baseline for drought prediction. The univariate and multivariate drought risk analysis of drought properties and indices is also presented. Finally, potential extensions of this package are also discussed. The package is provided freely to public to aid drought early warning and management.     

Development and application of a simulation model for changes in land-use patterns under drought scenarios

In arid and semiarid areas of northern China, one of the most vulnerable regional environments, water resources are a key constraint on socioeconomic development. We constructed a simulation model for land-use patterns under a drought transition (i.e., the increased frequency and duration of drought since the late 1970s in the Yongding River Basin study area) to account for the complexity of both the driving factors behind land-use change and the micro-level changes in land-use patterns. This model was a combination of the “top-down” system dynamics model, the “bottom-up” cellular automaton model, and the artificial neural network model. In this model, we considered the socioeconomic development and water resource restrictions, as well as the balance between the land-use requirements and the land supply. We then verified the model through a case study. The results demonstrated the value of constructing a simulation model driven by water resource constraints under the influence of drought. The spatial distribution of land uses in future scenarios will help support decision-making for sustainable regional development.     

考虑下垫面类型的干旱指数比较研究

干旱作为常见的自然灾害，在世界各地发生的频率日渐增加，已对经济发展、农业生产和人类生活等方面产生了严重影响。但是干旱的类型较多，包括气象干旱、土壤干旱、水文干旱、农田干旱等，无法用单个干旱指数对不同类型的干旱进行监测。按照干旱发生类型，利用气象干旱指数（Standardized Precipitation Index SPI）、土壤水分干旱指数（Soil Moisture Index, SMI）和蒸发压力干旱指数（Evaporative Stress Index, ESI）对美国的旱情进行监测。研究结果表明：不同干旱指数之间呈显著相关，相关系数R在0.7以上。ESI整体监测精度较高，它能够真实反映地表水分盈亏状况，同时与遥感数据结合，可以实现从田块到全球不同尺度干旱实时监测。不同植被类型覆盖下垫面对不同类型干旱响应存在较大差异，草地下垫面对不同类型的干旱响应较为一致，但是随着地上生物量的增加，不同干旱指数监测结果之间差异逐渐增大。因此，在干旱监测时需要考虑植被的结构特征，植被与气候之间的相互作用，才能具体分析不同下垫面的受灾情况，进一步考虑更适合的方法以及干旱指数监测不同下垫面的干旱情况。     

基于多源干旱指数的黄淮海平原干旱监测

黄淮海平原是我国重要的粮食基地,由于季风、气候等的影响,干旱频发,严重影响了粮食生产,实时监测黄淮海平原的干旱情况,对于合理制定农业政策、指导农业生产具有重要意义。基于MODIS反射率产品、温度产品和气象站点降雨数据等,采用改进归一化水指数(MNDWI)、植被健康指数(VHI)和标准化降水指数(SPI),对黄淮海平原2001~2012年干旱情况进行监测,分析其空间、季节、年际变化规律及其潜在原因,并根据结果确定3个指数的使用条件。结果发现:黄淮海平原燕山山麓和太行山山麓受西伯利亚冬季风的影响,同时由于春天植被覆盖少,水份蒸发较快,易发生春旱;农作物区在海拔25~100m之间比其他地区要干旱;12年间2003年干旱最弱。所采用遥感指数由于对水分温度敏感适用于实时监测,而气象指数SPI适用于长时间序列的干旱变化监测,亦可用于干旱预测。     

业务应用系统等级保护改造中的身份鉴别实现

淮河水利委员会防汛抗旱综合业务系统按照国家等级保护要求定为三级重要信息系统,系统功能和架构应满足国家等级保护相关要求。防汛抗旱综合业务系统等级保护改造中采用统一用户、权限配置和目录服务等管理方法,进行身份鉴别,实现业务应用系统的访问控制,实现日志记录与审计、资源控制保护等功能,达到等级保护改造的要求。     

Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.     

基于标准水资源指数(SWRI)的流域水文干旱评估——以海河北系为例

构建了一个新的水文干旱评估指标——标准水资源指数(SWRI),结合分布式水循环模型、Copula函数及统计检验等方法,形成了一套完整的水文干旱识别、评估及特征分析的基本框架。以海河北系为例,定量识别了1956—2009年间的水文干旱事件,并对其干旱特征及变化规律进行了剖析。结果表明:海河北系近54年发生的34次水文干旱主要集中在短历时、低强度、小面积区间内,空间上主要分布在张家口、大同及北京等地区;干旱指标的联动关系上,干旱历时、强度与面积指标间呈显著的线性或指数相关关系,90%的水文干旱历时低于40个月、干旱面积占比不超过43%,干旱强度低于9.0;在给定的干旱特征指标值(如干旱面积)条件下,另一干旱指标值越大(如强度越大)干旱发生概率越小,且存在明显的特征区间;单变量水文干旱重现期介于联合重现期和同现重现期之间。