Use of neural networks for predictions using time series: Illustration with the El Niño Southern oscillation phenomenon

This paper introduces the use of sets of multiple networks (bundled networks) to manage the variability due to different initialization parameters. This method makes it statistically impossible for the networks to be trapped in the same local minimum, and therefore allows better control of the confidence of the prediction eventually given. The spread of the forecasts given by these different networks can be used for prediction reliability purposes. An illustration of this usage is given with the El Niño phenomenon.     

Analysis of the El Niño Effect on the Discharge of Selected Rivers in the Asia-Pacific Region

Abstract

Discharge records originating from 78 rivers within the Asia-Pacific region are used to assess a possible relationship between a temporal El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index and regional discharges of rivers. The rivers selected have long monthly discharge series and are geographically distributed throughout the whole region. Analyses of variance are used to identify the sub-regions most teleconnected to the ENSO signal. Composite analyses show the temporal patterns of the relationships between river discharge and the ENSO signal and the possible presence of a time lagged relationship. The analyses show that the rivers of the Oceania-Pacific region are the most affected and that a majority of rivers show a similar temporal pattern, thus allowing the construction of a regional composite streamflow index. The temporal patterns of the identified relationships demonstrate the possibility of forecasting the occurrence of abnormally high or low flows (floods/droughts) months ahead of time.     

苏丹爱马公路项目设备租赁与购置经济比选与决策分析

随着国际工程承包市场的竞争不断加大,项目利润率不断下降。要在国际市场中占据一定的份额,我国企业必须提高工程项目管理水平,在满足合同要求、工程质量与工期的前提下,追求利润最大化。施工设备作为国际工程项目的主要生产要素,如何合理地选择和配置是提高企业市场竞争力及盈利能力的关键。笔者从成本管理的角度进行了财务分析,并综合考虑设备购置和租赁的经济性,通过案例数据进行多种经济分析和比较,从而选择最优方案。     

基于FPGA的E1信号失帧检测研究

针对E1信号传输过程中出现的失帧问题进行研究．提出以FPGA为控制核心的检测方案,当信号出现失帧状况时能及时进行检测并作出相应措施,以保障E1信号传输的稳定、流畅。     

基于E1线路的MPEG2传输系统的实现

自动化控制设备的发展促进了嵌入式远程视频传输设备的广泛使用。MPEG2技术虽然是目前广泛使用的一种音视频压缩技术，但由于目前各种通信资源传输带宽的限制，使得MPEG2音视频流在远程传输上还存在诸多困难，这也就限制了嵌入式远程视频传输设备的应用。另外，E1线路是一种比较方便和可靠的远程传输线路。在单路E1线路上，采用结合MEPG2码流特性的传输控制算法、高压缩比的：MPEG2压缩芯片和DSP芯片将有效地解决以上问题，实现满足应用要求的嵌入式远程视频传输设备。     

Design for the Future: Educational Institutions in the Gulf

Despite a distinguished heritage of learning in the Middle East, the expansion of provision for higher education is currently at an unprecedented scale. The Gulf States, in particular, are seeking to keep up with accelerated population growth and a demographic ‘youth bulge’. Guest-Editor Kevin Mitchell describes the architectural approaches employed in the design of institutions in the region from the first universities in Saudi Arabia to Foster + Partners's ground-breaking sustainable design for the Masdar Institute in Abu Dhabi and future projects.     

New Hearts for Two Gulf Cities

Doha in Qatar and Sharjah in the UAE are both currently looking to their own heritage for inspiration in the redevelopment of their urban cores or hearts. Varkki Pallathucheril , an expert in urban planning and Professor at the College of Architecture, Art and Design at the American University of Sharjah (AUS), considers the impact challenges of this type of development.     

有机薄膜电致发光器件

将无机薄膜电致发光器件和有机薄膜电致发光器件作了一个比较,并给出了有机薄膜电致发光器件的基本结构及其功能层材料选择的依据。最后分析了一个实际制备的双层器件。     

嵌入式系统中千兆以太网的设计与实现

嵌入式系统中常常需要高速、稳定地传输大量数据,千兆以太网价格低廉、传输速度快、传输距离远,在高速计算机通信中被广泛使用。给出嵌入式系统中千兆以太网的设计方案、硬件设计及其软件实现,并对千兆以太网的性能进行验证。设计方案通用、灵活,能够满足嵌入式系统中高速数据传输的性能需求,为嵌入式系统的高速以太网络通信提供了一种很好的解决方案。     

厄尔尼诺事件的成因与预报

为研究El Nin^-o事件的形成机理、建立其统计学预报模式，该文提出“拓展伴随模态分析”的新方法并将其应用于实测月平均SLP(或1000毫巴位势高度)和SST距平资料。分析结果表明：中高纬度高压移动所形成的异常热带亚澳大陆桥高压、北太平洋涛动的中纬度低压和构成南方涛动的异常海洋低压三者之间的相互作用是El Nin^-o事件演变过程中的决定因素；其形成和前发展阶段主要是大气驱动海洋，异常东亚或中亚高压与后二者的结合诱发东部型Nin^-o事件而异常西亚、南印度洋或南澳大陆高压与后二者的结合诱发中部型El Nin^-o事件；其后发展和消亡阶段主要是海洋驱动大气，在异常南、北太平洋中纬度海洋低压和亚澳大陆桥高压共同作用下形成的、以热带西太平洋为中心的钳型异常低温水舌牵引着上方的钳型异常海面高压向东北延伸使得阿留申低压回归原处，向东南延伸使得南方涛动的海洋低压减弱变性并造成了El Nin^-o事件的衰亡。其预报结果为：2003年将是一个正常偏冷年份。