石油化工生产火灾危险性分析

针对石油化工生产的特点,从物料特性、上艺装置、工艺控制参数、防火防爆安全装置、作业性质和消防安全设施等几方面综合分析其火灾危险性,并提出相应的防范措施,为消防安全评价提供依据。     

岩土体斜(边)坡滑坡发生的机理

根据滑坡发生的初始条件、滑坡成因及方式表象,对常见的蠕变倾覆滑坡、卸荷滑坡、震动液化平推滑坡、潜蚀塌陷滑坡、溶蚀下陷滑坡、孔隙水压浮动滑坡和人工切蚀或冲(浪)蚀—加载滑坡等机理进行了分析.     

消费品说明中警示信息有效性的工效学研究(Ⅰ)——警示信息对消费者危险感受与商品危险性之间关系的影响

该研究采用问卷法，通过对３０种消费品的调查，分析了消费者对消费品说明中警示信息的阅读倾向性，消费者的危险感受、消费者安全使用商品的自信度、遵守警示信息的可能性、主观危险估计和客观危险性这几项因素之间的关系。结果表明：消费者的危险感受与阅读警示信息的倾向性、遵守警告的要求之间存在高度的一致性；且与自信度呈负相关，所以可以通过研究消费者的危险感受来研究警示信息的有效性；消费者的危险感受、主观危险估计常与商品的客观危险性不一致，所以必须采取一些措施来矫正消费者的危险感受，以确保警示信息发挥应有的安全保障作用     

珠江三角洲土坝和堤围震害初步预测

本项预测采用概率方法,即首先根据广东省水利部门提出的55座土坝和59个重点的座标(见附图),进行概率地震危险性分析,给出它们在一定预测年限T(取50年和100年)的地震烈度Ⅰ的超越概率;其次根据近年我国发生的几次强震时处于不同烈度区内的土坝和堤防的震害资料,形成表示土坝和土堤地震易损性的震害概率矩阵;然后,根据上述两方面结果用概率公式评价各土坝和堤围点在预测年限内各震害等级的超越概率,并取10％超越概率为标准,估计震害等级。结果表明,珠江三角洲土工构筑物的地震危害性南部高于北部。     

Probabilistic analysis of uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment

Sources and current methods of analysis of uncertainty from randomness, fuzziness and ignorance or incomplete knowledge in seismic hazard assessment problem are briefly discussed at beginning; understandings of the authors are then presented in the following order. All three types of uncertainty come from incomplete knowledge. Probabilistic method can be applied to all of them, objective probability for random factors and subjective probability for the other two types of uncertain factors. Discrete subjective probability mass functions for incomplete and fuzzy factors can be obtained from logic-tree and membership functions respectively. Fractile curves may be used to show the scattering of any uncertainty factor, but a unified probabilistic treatment may be applied to any combination of all three types of uncertainty.     

Coupling GIS with Hydrologic and Hydraulic Flood Modelling

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have been recognised as a powerful means to integrate and analyse data from various sources in the context of comprehensive floodplain management. As part of this comprehensive approach to floodplain management, it is very important to be able to predict the consequences of different scenarios in terms of flooded areas and associated risk. Hydrologic and hydraulic modelling plays a crucial role and there is much to gain in incorporating these modelling capabilities in GIS. This is still a rather complex task and research is being done on the full integration of these models. Interfacing between these models and GIS may be a very efficient way of overcoming the difficulties and getting very good results in terms of engineering practice. This paper presents results based on the use of Intergraph GIS coupled with Idrisi GIS. Using these two systems substantially increased the flexibility of using GIS as a tool for flood studies. A lumped (XSRAIN) and a distributed (OMEGA) hydrologic models were used to simulate flood hydrographs. The well known HEC-2 Hydraulic model was used to compute flooded areas. These models were applied in the Livramento catchment with very good results. The computation of flooded areas for different flood scenarios, and its representation in GIS, can be used in the assessment of affected property and associated damages. This is a very useful GIS-based approach to floodplain management.     

过氧化氢爆炸事故浅析

通过两起过氧化氢(双氧水)爆炸事故，分析了过氧化氢由于本身具有较大的潜能，很不稳定，当受热、泄漏、撞击、摩擦时，易分解放热产生高温，造成火灾爆炸事故，对火灾爆炸反应过程与爆炸机理进行了探讨。     

液化石油气储罐火灾模拟试验——池火灾环境下

液化石油气储罐在火灾作用下，其内部的温度和压力会迅速上升，从而可能引起储罐爆炸，进而酿成危害性更大的二次灾害。为此，对液化石油气储罐在池火灾环境下的热响应情况进行了大量的模拟试验研究。研究发现，储罐在池火灾作用下存在着明显的热分层，热分层加速了储罐内部压力升高的速度；储罐内部温度分布和压力响应受到储罐类型、充装水平等因素的影响，压力随时间的变化关系可以用三次多项式加以拟合。     

液化石油气"溢出"的危害及对策

对液化石油气的性质及危险进行了论述,分析了液化石油气溢出后对人员及设备的危害,提出了阻止蔓延、排除下风向火源等减轻灾害的对策。     

Explosion risks during the confined storage of bituminous coals : Calculation of gaseous hydrogen accumulation in ship holds

Bituminous coal piles stored in the open air can undergo autocatalytic heating accompanied by the emission of small but appreciable amounts of molecular hydrogen. When the coal is contained in a confined space and the temperature reaches 40°C, accumulation of hydrogen is expected. This process has been observed for a wide variety of bituminous coals. The amount of hydrogen gas expected to accumulate in the air pocket above the coal cargo in ship holds (assuming that the coal's temperature approaches 40°C during the voyage) has been calculated. The results clearly indicate that in most cases the hydrogen concentration will be appreciably above the lower explosion limit in air. Hence when bituminous coals are stored in a confined space (e.g. a ship hold), the explosive risk of hydrogen should be taken into account.