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Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals. 相似文献
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Hitoshi Muta 《Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology》2019,56(5):367-368
Recent activities in the field of Nuclear Operational Management and Nuclear Safety Engineering, the studies related to risk analysis methodology, design, and operational management, physical phenomena, and emergency preparedness and nuclear security, have been progressed. Especially, ‘risk analysis methodology’ and ‘design and operational management’ are the main categories of the field, in which more than half of published articles on Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology are related to these categories. 相似文献
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Risk allocation decisions are of critical importance in project management. The present study proposes an explanation for how risk allocation in a contract motivates a contractor to cooperate with a project owner. Theories of risk allocation and trust were used to motivate the research. Using a survey methodology, we collected data concerning 124 construction projects in China. We found that risk allocation influenced the contractor’s role behavior through the contractor’s feeling of being trusted but not the contractor’s trust in the owner. Feeling of being trusted partially mediated the effect of risk allocation on the contractor’s in-role (i.e., contractual) behavior and fully mediated the effect on extra-role behavior. The study introduces a social and psychological view of the impacts of risk allocation to the project and engineering management literature. We contribute to theory by arguing and demonstrating the mediating effect of trust on the relationship between risk allocation and contractor behavior. From a practical standpoint, we conclude that contractual risk allocation has a significant impact on building a trusting relationship between owners and contractors and that contractors who feel trusted perform both contractually mandated actions and actions external to the contract more diligently, resulting in the likelihood of improved outcomes for both parties. 相似文献
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在凉水河下游取河床底泥及河床下部土样,分析其NH3-N、磷和有机物的变化,发现底泥对NH3-N和磷的去除发挥了很大作用,分别是下部土壤吸附量的10倍和1倍多;土中5种氯代烃均有检出,是河水长期渗漏积累的结果。凉水河流域内的野外试验结果表明,凉水河对地下水存在污染,污染组分主要是CODCr,NH3-N也有一定污染,其他无机污染组分如NO3-N,Cr6+,TP和Pb2+对地下水的影响较小,氯代烃对地下水也有一定影响。据推测,凉水河污染对地下水的影响范围大概在河两侧80 m范围内。 相似文献
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The planimetric shifts in channel location of large alluvial rivers are a critical component in the creation of diverse structures and functions in riverine habitats. Engineered management schemes must also compensate for this type of channel change to protect resources and maintain navigation channels. The stability of the Lower Mississippi River channel was assessed through an analysis of historical records of channel position produced and archived by the United States Army Corps of Engineers. Channel location was recorded for the years 1765, 1820, 1881, 1915, 1930, 1937, 1960 and 1970. Channel stability was measured by two introduced metrics on a cell‐by‐cell basis: (1) the standard deviation of Euclidean distance to a channel cell for the entire period of record, and (2) the rate of Euclidean distance change between years in the period of record. At a coarse spatial scale, channel instability increased in the downstream direction. The variability of channel stability also increased in the downstream direction. Analysis of this variability identified alternating areas of high and low stability occurring with greater frequency as distance downstream increased. These findings are validated by past studies of channel stability along the Lower Mississippi River. As a result, the proposed metrics provide a consistent, quantitative, efficient and cost‐effective means of identifying areas of channel instability at several spatial scales. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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李静 《水利水电科技进展》2006,26(3):15-17
总结了20世纪80年代前珠江三角洲网河河床演变特征,并采用80年代和90年代末的河道地形图,通过对比珠江三角洲各主要河道的深泓线、平均河底高程以及河道容积、河床断面宽深比的变化,分析珠江三角洲80年代后的河床演变特征。对比分析结果表明珠江三角洲在不同时期呈现出不同的河床演变规律——20世纪80年代前以淤积为主,80年代至90年代末转变为以冲刷为主。 相似文献
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