依缓冲库调速CIMS可靠性分析的位相结构方法

本文提出了依缓冲库调速ＣＩＭＳ可靠性分析的位相结构方法，从闭环排队网络出发，利用准生灭过程理论，给出了系统的各种可靠性指标和生产指标，讨论了系统局部运行期的们相特征，最后给出了两个数据算例。     

模具沉积层应变的模拟

为分析沉积层应变的变化情况,并找出温度与形变的变化规律,采用有限元分析软件ANSYS计算并绘制不同时刻以及不同位置沉积层内的温度及应力应变曲线,在建立传热模型过程中考虑了金属液滴向沉积层的传热以及沉积层向系统外的热量散失等问题．采用在厚度方向以微小层逐层叠加来模拟涂层的增厚,并以此为基础构造沉积层有限元计算模型,应用单元生与死逐层激活层单元参与计算过程．实现移动边界以充分模拟真实的喷涂沉积过程．通过分析不同时刻以及不同位置沉积层内的应力应变曲线,获得了沉积层应力应变变化规律．结果表明,沉积层内存在残余塑性应变,且沉积层与母模接触部位等效应力最大,是最易翘曲的地方,验证了沉积层失稳的一般形式．     

Severity of delayed (“secondary”) cerebral energy failure after acute hypoxia-ischemia is related to the time integral of acute ATP depletion

The aim of this study was to reproduce the delayed (secondary) cerebral energy failure previously described in birth-asphyxiated newborn infants and to investigate relationships between primary insult severity and the extent of the delayed energy failure. Phosphorus (³¹P) magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) at 7 T was used to study the brains of 12 newborn piglets during an acute, reversible, cerebral hypoxic-ischemic episode which continued until nucleotide triphosphates (NTP) were depleted. After reperfusion and reoxygenation, spectroscopy was continued for 48 h. High-energy metabolite concentrations returned to near normal levels after the insult, but later they fell as delayed energy failure developed. The time integral of NTP depletion in the primary insult correlated strongly with the minimum [phosphocreatine (PCr)]/[inorganic orthophosphate (P_i)] observed 24–48 h after the insult. (Linear regression analysis gave slope –8.04 h^–1; ordinate intercept=1.23;r=0.92;P<0.0001.) This model is currently being used to investigate the therapeutic potential of various cerebroprotective strategies including hypothermia.     

Modeling the glucose regulatory system in extreme preterm infants

Background

Premature infants represent a significant proportion of the neonatal intensive care population. Blood glucose homeostasis in this group is often disturbed by immaturity of endogenous regulatory systems and the stress of their condition. Hypo- and hyperglycemia are frequently reported in very low birth weight infants, and more mature infants often experience low levels of glycemia. A model capturing the unique fundamental dynamics of the neonatal glucose regulatory system could be used to develop better blood glucose control methods.

Methods

A metabolic system model is adapted from adult critical care to the unique physiological case of the neonate. Integral-based fitting methods were used to identify time-varying insulin sensitivity and non-insulin mediated glucose uptake profiles. The clinically important predictive ability of the model was assessed by assuming insulin sensitivity was constant over prediction intervals of 1, 2 and 4 h forward and comparing model-simulated versus actual clinical glucose values for all recorded interventions. The clinical data included 1091 glucose measurements over 3567 total patient hours, along with all associated insulin and nutritional infusion data, for N = 25 total cases. Ethics approval was obtained from the Upper South A Regional Ethics Committee for this study.

Results

The identified model had a median absolute percentage error of 2.4% [IQR: 0.9-4.8%] between model-fitted and clinical glucose values. Median absolute prediction errors at 1-, 2- and 4-h intervals were 5.2% [IQR: 2.5-10.3%], 9.4% [IQR: 4.5-18.4%] and 13.6% [IQR: 6.3-27.6%] respectively.

Conclusions

The model accurately captures and predicts the fundamental dynamic behaviors of the neonatal metabolism well enough for effective clinical decision support in glycemic control. The adaptation from adult to a neonatal case is based on the data from the literature. Low prediction errors and very low fitting errors indicate that the fundamental dynamics of glucose metabolism in both premature neonates and critical care adults can be described by similar mathematical models.     

基于干预规则挖掘因果关系与分段干预事件及对比不等式

为揭示亚复杂系统(SCS)在干预下的特殊行为,提出了对比不等式概念,提出并实现了分段干预规则的挖掘算法;通过在亚复杂系统中施加扰动式干预并分析其动力学效应,提出并实现了基于扰动因果关系挖掘算法。在真实数据上的实验表明,分段干预规则发现了传统挖掘方法难以发现的新干预事件,因果挖掘算法发现了传统方法难以发现的因果关系。     

CO2气体保护焊温度场的三维数值模拟与分析

采用商用ANSYS软件的二次开发语言,选用适宜于CO2气体保护焊的双椭球热源模型,建立了Y型坡口的两块钢板对接多层多道焊模型,分别采用三种不同"单元生死"技术对其温度场分布规律进行数值模拟及对比分析,验证了模拟过程中采用逐步、逐层激活焊缝单元的"单元生死"技术的必要性.得到了模型在各时间点的温度场分布,绘制了典型位置的热循环曲线,据此可掌握和预测实际焊接过程以及焊接之后焊件的组织、性能以及残余应力的变化情况.     

A comprehensive meta-analysis on evidence of Mediterranean diet and cardiovascular disease: Are individual components equal?

Many studies have reported that higher adherence to Mediterranean diet may decrease cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality. We performed a meta-analysis to explore the association in prospective studies and randomized control trials (RCTs) between Mediterranean diet adherence and CVD incidence and mortality. The PubMed database was searched up to June 2014. A total of 17 studies were extracted and 11 qualified for the quantitative analysis. Individuals in the highest quantile of adherence to the diet had lower incidence [relative risk (RR): 0.76, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.68, 0.83] and mortality (RR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.83) from CVD compared to those least adherent. A significant reduction of risk was found also for coronary heart disease (CHD) (RR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.60, 0.86), myocardial infarction (MI) (RR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.54, 0.83), and stroke (RR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.60, 0.96) incidence. Pooled analyses of individual components of the diet revealed that the protective effects of the diet appear to be most attributable to olive oil, fruits, vegetables, and legumes. An average reduced risk of 40% for the aforementioned outcomes has been retrieved when pooling results of RCTs. A Mediterranean dietary pattern is associated with lower risks of CVD incidence and mortality, including CHD and MI. The relative effects of specific food groups should be further investigated.     

Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke during pregnancy and infancy increased the risk of upper respiratory tract infections in infants: A birth cohort study in Wuhan,China

We aimed to evaluate the association of the exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) during pregnancy and infancy with the risk of upper respiratory tract infections (URTI) in infants based on a Chinese birth cohort study. Among 4178 infants who constituted the final study population, 46.8% experienced URTI in their first year of life. The hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the risk of URTI were assessed using Cox regression models. Compared with no ETS during pregnancy, continued ETS during pregnancy was independently associated with a higher risk of URTI (HR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.13, 1.63) after adjustment for potential confounders and also associated with earlier occurrence of URTI (log-rank P = .002). The association remained consistent across the strata defined according to maternal age, number of siblings, sex, and breastfeeding. Exposure to ETS during infancy was associated with URTI only among infants who were breastfed for less than 12 months (P for interaction < 0.05).Furthermore, infants exposed to ETS during both pregnancy and infancy showed the highest HR of 1.46 (95% CI: 1.16, 1.85) for URTI. Efforts should be made to protect pregnant women and infants from the adverse effects of indoor and outdoor ETS.