建筑工业化发展的多群体演化博弈与仿真研究

新型建筑工业化具有高质量、低消耗、可循环发展等特征，其推广已上升到国家战略层面。利用演化博弈方法，建立“政府-开发商-银行” 的三方动态演化博弈模型，进行各博弈主体策略的演化稳定性分析，并针对初始状态、奖惩力度、借贷风险和开发成本等对演化结果的影响进行动态仿真。在此基础上， 考虑开发商群体的网络拓扑特征对演化真实性的影响，引入复杂网络理论， 以无标度网络为载体描述开发商个体的连接偏好和决策机制，构建政府监管下的建筑工业化扩散模型，并通过仿真深入研究相关因素对扩散深度的影响作用，最后结合仿真结果给出相应对策建议。     

Farmers' preferences for adopting on-farm concentration of raw milk: Results from a discrete choice experiment in Germany

Milk concentrates are used in the manufacturing of dairy products such as yogurt and cheese or are processed into milk powder. Processes for the nonthermal separation of water and valuable milk ingredients are becoming increasingly widespread at farm level. The technical barriers to using farm-manufactured milk concentrate in dairies are minimal, hence the suspicion that the practice of on-farm raw milk concentration is still fairly uncommon for economic reasons. This study, therefore, set out to investigate farmers' potential willingness to adopt a raw milk concentration plant. The empirical analysis was based on discrete choice experiments with 75 German dairy farmers to identify preferences and the possible adoption of on-farm raw milk concentration. The results showed that, in particular, farmers who deemed the current milk price to be insufficient viewed on-farm concentration using membrane technology as an option for diversifying their milk sales. We found no indication that adoption would be impeded by a lack of trustworthy information on milk processing technologies or capital.     

Cognitive abilities,digital games and arithmetic performance enhancement: A study comparing the effects of a math game and paper exercises

Besides entertainment, games have shown to have the potential to impact a broader variety of cognitive abilities. Research has consistently shown that several aspects in cognition such as visual short-memory, multitasking and spatial skills can be enhanced by game play. In a previous study, it was found that playing Monkey Tales, a game aimed at training arithmetic skills, helped second grade pupils to increase their accuracy in mental calculation as compared to paper exercises. In this follow up study we explore whether traditional methods and game training differ in terms of the cognitive processes that both are able to impact. We incorporated standardized measures of working memory and visuo-motor skills. Additionally, the mathematics game was modified and its contents extracted to allow precise comparison between the gaming and paper exercises condition. Thus each single math exercise, type of question (e.g., multiple choice), quantity and order was perfectly matched in the game training and the traditional training conditions. Gains in arithmetical performance, and self-reported measures of enjoyment were also investigated. We found some evidence suggesting that arithmetic performance enhancement induced by game play and paper exercises differ not only in terms of enjoyment but also of working memory capacity improvements.     

The development of a single-item Food Choice Questionnaire

Based on the multi-item Food Choice Questionnaire (FCQ) originally developed by Steptoe and colleagues (1995), the current study developed a single-item FCQ that provides an acceptable balance between practical needs and psychometric concerns. Studies 1 (N = 1851) and 2 (2a (N = 3290), 2b (N = 4723), 2c (N = 270)) showed that the single-item FCQ scale has good convergent and discriminant validity. Generally, the results showed the highest correlations with the related multi-item dimensions (>0.40). Study 2 refined the scale. Only the items for convenience (Study 2a), sensory appeal (Study 2b) and mood (Study 2c) needed to be revised (as Study 1 showed a correlation between the multi-item and the single-item below the threshold of 0.60). The results also showed comparable predictive validity. Both methods revealed similar association patterns between food motives and consumption behaviours (Fisher’s z tests revealed agreements of 86.2% for Study 1, 92.9% for Study 2a and 100% for Studies 2b and 2c). Study 3 (N = 6062) showed an example of the added value of a context-specific application for the single-item FCQ. Different motives were shown to be relevant across contexts, and the context-specific motives had additional explained variance beyond the general multi-item FCQ. Studies 2b and 3 also showed the performance of the single-item FCQ in an international context. In sum, the results indicate that the single-item FCQ can be used as a flexible and short substitute for the multi-item FCQ. The study also discusses the conditions that should be considered when using the single-item scale.     

Gender differences in vegetarian identity: How men and women construe meatless dieting

Meat is deeply associated with masculine identity. As such, it is unsurprising that women are more likely than men are to become vegetarian. Given the gendered nature of vegetarianism, might men and women who become vegetarian express distinct identities around their diets? Through two highly powered preregistered studies (Ns = 890 and 1775) of self-identified vegetarians, combining both frequentist and Bayesian approaches, I found that men and women differ along two dimensions of vegetarian identity: (1) dietary motivation and (2) dietary adherence. Compared to vegetarian men, vegetarian women reported that they are more prosocially motivated to follow their diet and adhere to their diet more strictly (i.e., are less likely to cheat and eat meat). By considering differences in how men and women construe vegetarian dieting, investigators can generate deeper insights into the gendered nature of eating behavior.     

一种军棋机器博弈的多棋子协同博弈方法

针对在军棋博弈不完全信息对弈中，面对棋子不同价值、不同位置、不同搭配所产生的不同棋力，传统的单子意图搜索算法，不能满足棋子之间的协同性与沟通性，同时也缺乏对敌方的引诱与欺骗等高级对抗能力。本文提出一种结合UCT搜索策略的高价值棋子博弈方法，实现高价值棋子协同博弈的策略。实战经验表明:高价值多棋子军棋协同博弈策略优于单棋子军棋博弈策略。     

Modelling consumer choice through the random regret minimization model: An application in the food domain

In line with findings on post-purchase food-choice regret, one can expect that pre-purchase anticipated regret with respect to forgone (non-chosen) alternatives has an impact on consumer food choices, especially when the choice is considered to be important. The traditional Random Utility Maximization (RUM) models for discrete choices may not fully capture this impact. This study investigates the usefulness and potential in the food domain of a discrete choice model that follows the regret minimization principle, the Random Regret Minimization (RRM) model, as an alternative and complement to existing RUM models. The two models are applied to consumer stated choices of cheese in a choice experiment. The study also investigates whether and to what extent a number of personality traits determine whether particular consumers rather choose according to utility-maximization, or regret-minimization principles. Results show that at the aggregate level the two models have a similar goodness of fit to the data and prediction ability. Still, each of them shows better fit for particular subgroups of consumers, based on personality traits. Hence, the present study reveals a potential for the RRM model applications in the food domain, and adds to the empirical literature supporting previous findings on the RRM model found in other contexts. Further research is needed to explore in which situations and for which consumer segments the RRM model is the most useful model.     

Does decision quality (always) increase with the size of information samples? Some vicissitudes in applying the law of large numbers.

Adaptive decision making requires that contingencies between decision options and their relative assets be assessed accurately and quickly. The present research addresses the challenging notion that contingencies may be more visible from small than from large samples of observations. An algorithmic account for such a seemingly paradoxical effect is offered within a satisficing-choice framework. Accordingly, a choice is only made when the sample contingency describing the relative evaluation of the 2 options exceeds a critical threshold. Small samples, because of the high dispersion of their sampling distribution, facilitate above-threshold contingencies. Across a broad range of parameters, the resulting small-sample advantage in terms of hits is stronger than their disadvantage in false alarms. Computer simulations and experiments support the model predictions. The relative advantage of small samples is most apparent when information loss is low, when the threshold is high relative to the ecological contingency, and when the sampling process is self-truncated. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

我国水权交易博弈定价决策机理

结合水权交易双方的效用函数，基于博弈原理及方法分别建立了水权交易准市场阶段和水市场阶段的水权交易博弈定价模型，并对水市场定价模型的纳什均衡解进行了探讨；基于定价相关要素间关系的探讨，解析了准市场阶段和水市场阶段水权交易定价决策机理，结果认为水权交易双方存在利益冲突，并且准市场阶段水权交易定价相对较低，水市场阶段水权交易定价相对较高。     

移动运营商手机游戏业务的战略定位和发展策略探讨

分析了韩国、日本及国内运营商手机游戏业务的发展状况．探讨了手机游戏业务的模式．论述了该业务的战略定位和市场前景。从地区提供给移动通信市场对外部环境、产业链的准备是否充分以及运营商内部的资源和运营状况等三个方面阐明了手机游戏业务发展的关键因素。