石油峰值,EROI值与经济增长关系研究

在能源消费对经济增长显著影响的背景下,本文引入能源投资回报值(EROI)来探讨石油与经济增长的关系,通过研究表明,石油的EROI值与油价呈反向关指数系,而当EROI值下降至10：1以下,两者为非线性关系,且EROI值与石油公司的利润率之间存在可比关系。全球的石油EROI值已降至16:1左右的低水平,对于石油供应短缺的我国而言,EROI值更低至安全警戒线10:1的水平,随着全球石油峰值的临近,中国的经济增长面临着低石油EROI值,石油企业的高成本,国际油价上涨对中国经济增长的冲击作用,对本土石油企业利润的负面影响也会显著扩大。     

Net energy analysis in a Ramsey–Hotelling growth model

This article presents a dynamic growth model with energy as an input in the production function. The available stock of energy resources is ordered by a quality parameter based on energy accounting: the “Energy Return on Energy Invested” (EROI). In our knowledge this is the first paper where EROI fits in a neoclassical growth model (with individual utility maximization and market equilibrium), establishing the economic use of “net energy analysis” on a firmer theoretical ground. All necessary concepts to link neoclassical economics and EROI are discussed before their use in the model, and a comparative static analysis of the steady states of a simplified version of the model is presented.     

能源生产评价新方法——能源投入回报值

本文阐述了能源投入回报值(EnergyReturnOnInvestmentEROI)的产生及概念,分析了传统经济评价方法与EROI方法的区别与联系。基于对EROI方法的全面分析,又将这一名词重新定义为能源投入回报值,重点论述了EROI的2种基本公式、加权能源产出的计算方法、能源投入的3种类型、转换因子的确定。最后综合了国外对EROI的研究成果并指出EROI在我国的3种应用方向。     

Energy return on investment of hydroelectric power generation calculated using a standardised methodology

The aim was to study the Energy Return on Investment (EROI) for the Fljotsdalsstod hydroelectric power plant (690 MW) using real data and a previously proposed standard. Energy return on investment is the ratio between the output and input energy. In this study we calculate the EROI within three defined boundaries, which include different parameters. Results show that over the 100-year lifetime, the plant is expected to deliver an EROI of approximately 110. The largest energy-consuming factor was the own usage, followed by the indirect energy used in the production of the construction materials. Since this study uses a standardised methodology, it can be compared to future studies. To date, this has not been possible since no standard methodology has been used in past studies.     

Energy transition toward carbon-neutrality in China: Pathways,implications and uncertainties

Achieving carbon neutrality in China before 2060 requires a radical energy transition. To identify the possible transition pathways of China’s energy system, this study presents a scenario-based assessment using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model. China could peak the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions before 2030 with current policies, while carbon neutrality entails a reduction of 7.8 Gt CO₂ in emissions in 2060 and requires an energy system overhaul. The assessment of the relationship between the energy transition and energy return on investment (EROI) reveals that energy transition may decrease the EROI, which would trigger increased energy investment, energy demand, and emissions. Uncertainty analysis further shows that the slow renewable energy integration policies and carbon capture and storage (CCS) penetration pace could hinder the emission mitigation, and the possible fossil fuel shortage calls for a much rapid proliferation of wind and solar power. Results suggest a continuation of the current preferential policies for renewables and further research and development on deployment of CCS. The results also indicate the need for backup capacities to enhance the energy security during the transition.     

Meta-analysis of net energy return for wind power systems

This analysis reviews and synthesizes the literature on the net energy return for electric power generation by wind turbines. Energy return on investment (EROI) is the ratio of energy delivered to energy costs. We examine 119 wind turbines from 50 different analyses, ranging in publication date from 1977 to 2007. We extend on previous work by including additional and more recent analyses, distinguishing between important assumptions about system boundaries and methodological approaches, and viewing the EROI as function of power rating. Our survey shows an average EROI for all studies (operational and conceptual) of 25.2 (n = 114; std. dev = 22.3). The average EROI for just the operational studies is 19.8 (n = 60; std. dev = 13.7). This places wind in a favorable position relative to fossil fuels, nuclear, and solar power generation technologies in terms of EROI.     

Energy return on investment, energy payback time, and greenhouse gas emissions of coal seam gas (CSG) production in China: a case of the Fanzhuang CSG project

The studies and development of coal seam gas (CSG) have been conducted for more than 30 years in China, but few of China’s CSG projects have achieved large-scale commercial success; faced with the boom of shale gas, some investors are beginning to lose patience and confidence in CSG. China currently faces the following question: Should the government continue to vigorously support the development of the CSG industry? To provide a reference for policy makers and investors, this paper calculates the EROI_stnd [a standardized energy return on investment (EROI) method], EROI_ide (the maximum theoretical EROI), EROI_3,i (EROI considering the energy investment in transport), and EROI_3,1+e (EROI with environmental inputs) of a single vertical CSG well in the Fanzhuang CSG project in the Qinshui Basin. The energy payback time (EPT) and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the CSG systems are also calculated. The results show that over a 15-year lifetime, EROI_stnd, ERO_Iide, EROI_3,1, and EROI_3,1+e are expected to deliver EROIs of approximately 11:1, 20:1, 7:1, and 6:1, respectively. The EPT within different boundaries is no more than 2 years, and the life-cycle GHG emissions are approximately 18.8 million kg CO₂ equivalent. The relatively high EROI and short EPT indicate that the government should take more positive measures to promote the development of the CSG industry.     

A review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China

Abstract This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year (or 9.6 EJ/year), in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around 350 Bcm/year (or 13.6 EJ/year) in 2040, while coal production will peak at about 4400 Mt/year (or 91.9 EJ/year) around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production of these fuels, there are significant differences among current studies. These differences can be mainly explained by different ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, the nature of the models used, and differences in the historical production data. Due to the future constraints on fossil fuels production, a large gap is projected to grow between domestic supply and demand, which will need to be met by increasing imports. Net energy analyses show that both coal and oil and gas production show a steady declining trend of EROI (energy return on investment) due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conventional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistent with the approaching peaks of physical production of fossil fuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled with the decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge the sustainable development of Chinese society unless new abundant energy resources with high EROI values can be found.     

能源投入回报(EROI)研究进展探析

能源投入回报(Energy Return on Investment,EROI)在1984年正式提出后,受全球能源生产放缓、油价剧烈波动等因素影响,受到越来越多的关注。国外学者进行了深入研究包括测算常规化石能源、非常规化石能源以及可再生能源等的EROI值,但国内相关研究甚少,因此,本文主要目的是通过系统分析EROI研究现状和趋势为国内学者研究提供参考。本文总结了目前国内外已测算出的常规油气、页岩气、生物能等的EROI值,发现化石能源EROI呈现下降趋势,新能源的EROI值较常规化石能源明显偏低。未来需要进一步研究的领域主要包括:非常规能源和新能源EROI值的测算;EROI与传统能源评价方法的结合;考虑环境破坏所产生能源成本下EROI的计算;考虑技术进步等因素下能源消耗的预测;研究EROI与经济发展、生活水平等方面关系。     

基于EROI与DEA方法的中国油气开采效率评价研究

油气行业是我国能源系统的重要支柱,对当前油气产业上游勘探开发环节进行综合效率评价具有重要意义。能源投入回报法(EROI)以净能源为分析重点,衡量能源开采效率；数据包络分析法(DEA)利用生产前沿面对比各决策单元的相对效率,评估各决策单元是否达到技术有效和规模有效。本文基于投入产出的角度,创新性地将两种方法结合在一起,对我国油气开采效率进行全面评价分析。结果显示,2003年-2017年间,我国EROI值总体呈上升趋势,且近几年增长速度加快；2015年后,我国油气开采行业的投入产出决策已实现相对优化。以上结果均证明我国油气开采效率正在不断提升,我国油气开采行业正处在良性发展之中,分析原因与天然气产量大幅提升、单位直接能耗以及油气勘探投资的减少有关。在未来,天然气将进一步发挥作用促进油气总产量的提升,勘探开发相关投资也将进一步增加,需要进行合理规划并有效利用行业投资,以保持高水平的勘探开发效率。